Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

1. Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union Lecture 17 Sociology SOCI 20182

2. Population Policy

3. Recent UN Report • World Population Policies 2007 • Based on official views regarding population processes and policies in 195 countries world-wide • Considers evolution of population policies in 1976-2006

4. Major concerns on population issues • 90% countries are concerned with spread of HIV infection (93% developing countries and 81% developed countries) • 73% countries are concerned with high infant mortality • 70% countries are concerned with high maternal mortality • 81% developed countries are concerned with population aging (55% all countries)

5. Major concerns of the developed world • HIV/AIDS – 81% • Population aging – 81% • Low fertility – 61% • Size of the population of working age – 61%

6. Government Views on Population Growth

7. Population policies related to population growth

8. Russian Government Views and Policies on Population Growth

9. Population growth - conclusions • Now more developed countries are concerned with low population growth • Proportion of developed countries with policies to modify their population growth increased (from 23% in 1996 to 37% in 2007)

10. Population aging • In 2007, 55% countries were concerned by the consequences of population aging • Population aging is the second concern (after HIV) for the governments of developed countries

11. Government concern about population aging in 2007

12. Government concern about the size of the labor force population, 2007

13. Russian Government • No data for 1996 • In 2007, major concern about population aging and size of the working-age population

14. Population policies to alleviate the consequences of population aging • In 2002-2006 pension age was increased in 41 out of 164 countries • The age of retirement providing a right for a full pension is 60 years for men in 60% countries. The same age for women in 40% countries • However half of men in the European Union retire at age 61.5 years and half of women retire before age 60

15. Fertility (polarization of views) • Proportion of countries satisfied with their level of fertility declined from 53% in 1976 to 35% in 2007 • Proportion of the least developed countries concerned with high level of fertility increased from 31% in 1976 to 90% in 2007 • Proportion of developed countries concerned with too low level of fertility increased from 21% in 1976 to 61% in 2007

16. Government policies on the level of fertility

17. Government policies on the level of fertility

18. Population policies implemented in developed countries to increase fertility • Child support payments • Family support payments • Maternity leave and leave for child care • Medical subsidies for child care • Tax benefits • Housing subsidies • Flexible work schedule for parents with children

19. Governments providing direct support to facilitate access to modern contraceptive methods

20. Policies on availability of modern contraception

21. Government concern about teenage births Concerns predominantly countries of America (South and North) and Africa

22. Russian Government Views and Policies

23. New measures to stimulate fertility in Russia (effective January 1, 2007): • increase in payments to mothers with children younger than 1.5 years Doubling the support level, and broader outreach, not just extremely poor

24. New measures to stimulate fertility in Russia (2) • maternal (family) capital  (financial certificate for mothers with 2 children and more) subsidized mortgages for families with 2+ children, child education, pension, etc., (250,000 rubles, about $10,000)

25. New Measures to stimulate fertility in Russia (3) • subsidized pre-school child care 20% subsidy for one child 50% for two children 70% for 3 and more children

26. New measures to stimulate fertility in Russia (4) • financial support to persons and families, who adopted an orphaned or abandoned child Shift to in-family care as opposed to institutionalized care 3 times raise in benefits:4,000+ rubles per month for child, and 2,500+ rubles per month for ‘parenting’ job

27. Mortality and Health • Proportion of countries satisfied with their level of mortality increased (due to decreased concerns in developing countries)

28. Proportion of countries concerned with their level of mortality

29. Proportion of countries concerned with their level of child mortality

30. Government concerns about HIV spread

31. Distribution of countries according to the measures to respond to HIV/AIDS epidemics

32. Russian Government Views and Policies

33. Population spatial distribution • Urbanization. In 1950-2005 urban population increased more than 4 times • Initially – population excess in rural areas, migration to cities • Finally – overcrowding of urban areas, particularly in large urban agglomerations

34. Government concern about population spatial distribution

35. Government policies related to internal migration, 2007

36. Government policies regarding migration to urban agglomerations

37. Russian Government Views on Internal Migration • 1996. Views on spatial distribution – Major change desired to make population spatial distribution more even • 2007. Views on spatial distribution – Major change desired to make population spatial distribution more even

38. Immigration • Significant changes in attitudes to immigration compared to the 1990s • In 1996, 33% of developed countries considered the level of immigration too high. Only 6% in 2007. • In 2007, 10% of developed countries considered the level of immigration too low. • Shift to less restrictive immigration policy

39. Government views on the level of immigration

40. Government policy related to different types of migration, 2007

41. Russian Government Views and Policies

42. Emigration • Growing number of countries consider their level of emigration as too high: 13% in 1976 29% in 2007 • However, some developing countries with young population and high unemployment rate promote emigration (Vietnam, Philippines)

43. Government views on emigration

44. Government policies on emigration

45. Russian Government Views and Policies

46. Russian President on Demographic Situation in Russia(Address to Russian Parliament, May 10, 2006) • Demographic problem is "the most urgent problem of modern Russia" • Demographic situation is "critical" • "We talked at lot on this topic but did little." • Government is "too slow with unacceptable bureaucracy in resolving the problem" • Suggested 10+ year program with three priorities: -- to decrease mortality -- effective migration policy -- to increase fertility

47. Russian President on How to Decrease Mortality(Address to Russian Parliament, May 10, 2006) • Program to prevent traffic accidents and improve road safety • To eradicate production and import of alcohol surrogates (poisoned alcohol) • National Project "Health" focused on prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases, and other major causes of death. Comment: • No direct mentioning of alcoholism problem (by "pure", not poisoned alcohol) • No direct mentioning of smoking problem

48. Russian President on Priorities in Migration Policy(Address to Russian Parliament, May 10, 2006) • Returning back Russian compatriots from abroad (repatriation) • Preferences should be given to educated immigrants without criminal record • Immigrants should respect Russian culture and traditions (Russian language?) Comment: • Not much is done yet to enforce these wishes

49. March 15, 2010 Exam • Multiple-choice questions • Questions do not extend beyond the lectures

50. Requirements • General understanding of demographic indicators (fertility, marriage, mortality, population aging) – their pros and cons. No need to memorize exact formulas. • Knowledge of major trends in population growth, fertility/reproductive health, mortality, migration and population aging during the transition period (1990-2000) in Russia. • New trends during the last decade (2000-2010) in Russia. • Major factors affecting fertility, mortality and population aging in Russia • Understanding population pyramids