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THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION OF THE ROMANIA-BULGARIA BORDER AREA BETWEEN 2009-2010

THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION OF THE ROMANIA-BULGARIA BORDER AREA BETWEEN 2009-2010 - Strengths, weaknesses of the social and economic environment - - 28 th of July 2011 -. Partners Contracting Authority - Fundaţia pentru Democraţie Cultura şi

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THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION OF THE ROMANIA-BULGARIA BORDER AREA BETWEEN 2009-2010

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  1. THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION OF THE ROMANIA-BULGARIA BORDER AREA BETWEEN 2009-2010 - Strengths, weaknesses of the social and economic environment - - 28th of July 2011 -

  2. Partners Contracting Authority - Fundaţia pentru Democraţie Cultura şi Libertate filiala Călăraşi - FDCL • Provider –Consortium formed by: • Romanian Institute for Economic - Social Research and Polls - IRECSON (Leader) • Vitosha Research (Bulgaria – partner 1) • The Gallup Organization Romania (partner 2)

  3. Meeting subjects • Rationals of the project / contract • Expected results (types of statistical studies) • Activities, methods for implementing the activities • Achieved results

  4. RATIONALS OF THE PROJECT/CONTRACT • Expected results (types of statistical studies) • Activities, methods for implementing the activities • Achieved results

  5. Rationals of the contract General Objective Offering a comprehensive and accurate perspective on the social and economic conditions and on the evolution of the cross border area Romania-Bulgaria in the period 2009-2015. Specific Objectives The development of a set of instruments for the assessment of the social and economic situation and of its evolution in the transborder area (methodology, set of indicators, data base, specific sources of data). The implementation of the methodology for the assessment of the social and economic situation in the cross border area.

  6. Rationals of the project/contract • Expected results (types of statistical studies) • Activities, methods for implementing the activities • Achieved results

  7. Expected Results (types of statistical studies) • Research Reports regarding the social and economic environment. • Studies in this category will be elaborated based on data collected through statistical surveys (sample surveys) which will be developed and implemented periodically on representative samples selected from the population (households) and businesses (economic operators) of the Programme area.

  8. Expected Results (types of statistical studies) 2. Research Reports regarding the impact of the implemented projects in the cross border area by priority axis and field. These studies will be built on information that is collected through surveys on the target groups of project beneficiaries.

  9. Expected Results (types of statistical studies) 3. Analytical reports containing specific topics tailored to the objectives of the strategic project, which will use sets of quantitative indicators collected from official sources, and data from surveys developed in the project. They will focus on periodic assessment (quarterly and annual) of the socio-economic situation in the cross border area and the temporal and spatial evolution of Romanian and Bulgarian regions components of the cross border area.

  10. The topics of the analytical quarterly reports for the first year of contract are: Humanresourcesandworkforce market (4th of July 2011) Economic environment (4th of October 2011) Transport, Energy and Communications (4th of January 2012) Agriculture and Environment (4th of April 2012)

  11. Rationals of the project/contract • Expected results (types of statistical studies) • Activities, methods for implementing the activities • Achieved results

  12. Activities, methods for implementing the activities 1. Documentation for the elaboration/development of the indicator sets and the database, the collection and update of indicators regarding the natural capital, the anthropic capital, the human and the social capital (collection of quantitative data). 2. Survey among the population for collecting information on the life level of the inhabitants, the degree of participation in supporting the actions of local communities and the program, immediate necessities and expectations, as well as information that may lead to the impact assessment of the program and the identification of directions of strategic development. 3. Survey among the companies from the cross border area (for collecting information about competitiveness, business environment, the level of participation of the business environment in settling the problems of the community, trends and directions of development of the local business environment, etc.). 4. Survey for assessing the impact of projects on Priority Axes „Accessibility”, „Environment”, „Social and economic development”.

  13. 1. Documentation for the update of indicators regarding the natural capital, the anthropic capital, thehuman and the social capital (collection of quantitative data). 1.1 Set of indicators 1.2 Data sources 1.3 Periodicity anddeadlinesof data collection 1.4 Reports

  14. The structure of the indicators set for sustenable development SECTION I - QUANTITATIVE INDICATORS • Natural capital - The conservation and the management of natural resources; - Climatic changes and clean energy (for sustainable development) at national and regional level; • Anthropic capital (Economic activity by activity sectors) • Non-agricultural sector (industry, constructions, commerce and other services); • Agricultural sector ( agriculture and silviculture); • Transport and telecommunications; • Tourism; • Technical edilitary networks;

  15. Human capital • Population, households and conditions of living • Health • Education and professional training • Work force and salaries • Security and social assistance • Leisure • Justice and personal safety • Social Capital (Social and cultural relations) • Cross border contacts • Language and culture • Mass-media

  16. SECTION II - QUALITATIVE INDICATORS • Opinions multiply by “n” • Opinions regarding the actual economic and social situation and the development needs of the Ro-Bg cross border area; • Opinions regarding the program CBC Ro-Bg (knowledge of the program and the possibilities of obtaining financing, institutional mechanism, obtaining information.)

  17. 2. Household surveys / Enterprise surveys

  18. 3. 3. Surveys on the target groups for assessing the impact of projects on Priority Axes „Accessibility”, „Environment”, „Social and economic development”

  19. Rationals of the project/contract • Expected results (types of statistical studies) • Activities, methods for implementing the activities • Achieved results

  20. THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION OF THE RO-BG CROSS BORDER AREA IN 2009-2010 - RESULTS OBTAINED TO DATE -

  21. The Romania-Bulgaria Cross Border Area The Romanian area 7 counties The Bulgarian Area 9 districts (oblasti) The length of the border with Bulgaria is 609 km, of which 470 km are represented by the Danube and the remaining 139 are land border (the south of Constanţa county).

  22. Demographic Potential Population of the cross border area by counties and districts Data source: Romanian National Institute of Statistics Bulgarian National Institute of Statistics • Population Total (on July 1 2010): 4880,2 thousand people. • Romanian Area: 3169,7 thousand people(65%) • Bulgarian Area: 1710,5 thousand people(35%). • In the last four years in the Romanian area population decreased by 47 000 persons and in the Bulgarian area by 65 800 persons.

  23. Population Density in the corss border area Ro-Bg in 2010 (inhabitants / km2) Data source: Romanian National Institute of Statistics Bulgarian National Institute of Statistics Constanţa (Romania) and Pleven (Bulgaria) are the most populated areas with a density of 102.3 respectively 62.8 inhabitants / km2.At the opposite end are Mehedinţi and Vidin, with 59 and 36 inhabitants per km2.

  24. Population structure of the cross border area by gender in 2010 Data source: Romanian National Institute of Statistics Bulgarian National Institute of Statistics The Male Ratio Report on July 1 2010 wasthroughout the area of 95-96 males to 100 females.

  25. The population structure of the cross border area by residence in 2010 Data source: Romanian National Institute of Statistics Bulgarian National Institute of Statistics The population in the Romanian area is relatively evenly distributed in urban and rural areas while in the Bulgarian area it is prevalent in urban areas (63%).Highly urbanized areas are Constanta and Ruse (over 70% urban population), while poor urban areas are Giurgiu and Silistra (31% and 45% urban population).

  26. The structure of population by age groups in 2010 Data source: Romanian National Institute of Statistics Bulgarian National Institute of Statistics In the Bulgarian area the population is slightly more aging than in the Romanian area (20% of the population over 65 years versus 17%).

  27. The map of population aging in the Ro-Bg cross border area in 2010 Note: The percentages represent the share of population 65 years and over in the total population of that area Data source: Romanian National Institute of Statistics Bulgarian National Institute of Statistics Compared to 2007, the share of the population 65 years old and over has increased in all counties / districts of the cross border area. The aging process is more accentuated in rural areas than in urban areas. The index of demographic aging is directly influenced by the decreasing number of children (mainly) and the increasing elderly population. In the Bulgarian area, it is 151 elderly persons per 100 younger persons, while in the Romanian area it is 114 to 100 young people to elderly people.

  28. The effects that aging has on economic and social life (reports of demographic dependence) Data source: Romanian National Institute of Statistics Bulgarian National Institute of Statistics In 2010, for 100 adults (aged 15-64 years) there were 45 people young and old in Romanian counties compared to 49 people young and old in Bulgarian districts.

  29. Labor resources, employment and unemployment Distribution of the work resources (persons between 15-64 years) in the Romanian-Bulgarian cross border area in 2010 Data source: Romanian National Institute of Statistics Bulgarian National Institute of Statistics Constanta and Dolj together have 45% of the total working age population from the Romanian cross border region, while in the Bulgarian cross border region Pleven, Veliko Tarnovo and Ruse stand out, reprezenting 47.4% of the total working age population. Compared to 2007, in 2010 the working age population in the Bulgarian area fell by -4.7%, while in the Romanian area it decreased by -0.4%. The working age population in the Romanian area has a relatively similar distribution, 50.5% in urban and 49.5% in rural areas, while in the Bulgarian area 67.8% of the population lives in urban areas.

  30. Participation in the economic activity Romanian border Bulgarian border Data sources: Ro: Estimations on Eurostat data – Work Force in Households Survey Bg: National Institute of Statistics – Bulgaria: Workforce in Households Survey In five of the seven counties of the Romanian side the activity rate exceeds that recorded nationally, with values ​​ranging from 18.9% in Olt County and 0.1% in Mehedinti County. In Bulgaria, with the exception of the Ruse district the cross border area is characterized by activity rates below the national level, with differences ranging between -0.5% and -11.2%.

  31. Territorial distribution of the employed population in the Ro-Bg cross border area in 2009 Total employed population in the Romanian area: 1518 thousand persons Note: The percentages represent the distribution of the employed population in the counties / districts of the cross border area Data source: RO:Estimates based on Eurostat data - Household Labor Force Survey (LFS) BG: Calculations based on data from the Bulgarian National Institute of Statistics - Household Labor Force Survey (LFS) Total employed population in the Bulgarian area: 667 mii persoane In the year 2009, the Ro-Bg cross border area totaled 2.185 million employed persons, of which 70% in the Romanian area and 30% in the Bulgarian area.

  32. Employment rates in the Ro-Bg cross border area in 2009 Note: The percentages represent the distribution of the employed population in the counties / districts of the cross border area Data source: RO: Estimates based on Eurostat data - Household Labor Force Survey (LFS) BG: Calculations based on data from the Bulgarian National Institute of Statistics - Household Labor Force Survey (LFS) The highest values in the Romanian area, compared to the national level, occurred in Olt (71.3%) and Dolj (63.7%) and the lowest in Constanta (46.5%) and Teleorman (40.9%). In the Bulgarian area , the Ruse district stands out (50.5%) with employment rates above the national level registered in Bulgaria.

  33. Distribution of the employed population by sector of activity of the national economy in the cross border area in 2009 Romanian border Bulgarian border Data sources: Ro: Estimations on Eurostat data – Work Force in Households Survey Bg: Estimations on Eurostat data – Work Force in Households Survey In the planning regions in Bulgaria which include the districts of the Bulgarian area the distribution of the employed population by sector of activity is relatively similar to the situation at national level. In the development areas in Romania which contain the counties from the Romanian area different typologies are found: the South East region stands out in particular through the services, the activity sectors in the South are relatively equally distributed, while the South West is predominantly agricultural.

  34. ILO* unemployment rate ILO unemployment rate in the Ro-Bg cross border area in 2009 Data sources: Ro: Estimations on Eurostat data – Work Force in Households Survey Bg: National Institute of Statistics Bulgaria– Work Force in Households Survey In the Romanian area the unemployment rate was at the same level as that recorded nationally (6.9% representing 112,000 ILO unemployed). In the Bulgarian area the ILO unemployment rate was 9.5% compared to the national level unemployment rate (6.8% representing 70 000 ILO unemployed). According to ILO an unemployed person is anyone who has is over 15 years old , and simultaneously satisfies the following conditions: is able to work, does not works, is available for employment or unpaid work, is looking for a job.

  35. Registered unemployment * Territorial distribution of registered unemployment in the Ro-BG cross border area Ro-BG as of 31.12.2009 Total registered unemployed persons in the Romanian area: 123 thousand persons Note: The percentages represent the distribution of registered unemployed in the county / the districts in the cross border area Data source: RO: Calculations based on data from the National Agency for Employment (ANOFM) BG: Calculations based on data from the Bulgarian National Institute of Statistics Total registered unemployed persons in the Bulgarian area: 88 thousand persons The largest share of total registered unemployed persons in the Romanian area eas held by Olt County (27.2%), while in the Bulgarian area the districts Vratsa and Pleven are in the top (15.6%). * Unemployment defined in accordance with national legislation of each country and registered with the national employment offices employment

  36. Employed workforce Percentage distribution of number of employees by counties / districts within each area in the Ro-Bg cross border region in 2009 Romanian border Bulgarian border Total Bulgarian area: 418,6 thousand persons (17% of total Bulgaria) Total Romanian area: 559,7 thousand persons(12% of total România) Data sources: Ro:Yearly Survey of workforce cost Bg: Yearly Survey on number of employees, salarial wages and workforce cost In 2009 in the region there were working about 1 million employees, of which 57% in the Romanian area and 43% in the Bulgarian area.

  37. Employed workforce Distribution of average number of employees by counties and sectors of activity in Romania and in the Romanian Ro-Bg cross border region in 2009 Secondary sector Primary sector Tertiary sector Data sources: Ro:Yearly Survey of workforce cost Bg: Yearly Survey on number of employees, salarial wages and workforce cost The share of employees in the primary sector (agriculture, forestry, fishery) in the Romanian border area compared is higher compared to the situation at national level in Romania (4% versus 2,3%). Mehedinti and Olt counties have higher shares than those recorded at national level in the secondary sector (industry and construction) and Dolj, Giurgiu and Constanta have higher weights than the national level in the tertiary sector (services).

  38. Employed workforce Distribution of average number of employees by counties and sectors of activity in Bulgaria and in the Bulgarian Ro-Bg cross border region in 2009 Secondary sector Primary sector Tertiary sector Data sources: Ro:Yearly Survey of workforce cost Bg: Yearly Survey on number of employees, salarial wages and workforce cost In the primary sector the districts Silistra and Dobrich stand out(10.6% from the number of employees being in agriculture, forestry and fishery), while in the secondary sector Ruse and Vratsa detach themselves (43.7% and 42.8%). In the services sector, the Vidin district stands out from the rest of the districts in the Bulgarian area.

  39. Employed workforce Average gross salary earnings in the Ro-Bg cross border area in 2009 Bulgarian border Romanian border Data sources: Ro:Yearly Survey of workforce cost Bg: Yearly Survey on number of employees, salarial wages and workforce cost In the Romanian area of the Ro-Bg cross border region the average gross earning in 2009 was 414 euros while in the Bulgarian area it was 255 euros.

  40. The Economy The GDP in current market prices in 2008 by counties / districts (Eur per inhabitant) GDP = 6500 Euro/inhabitant GDP = 4700 Euro/inhabitant In the Romanian area of the Ro-Bg cross border region, Constanta is the only county with a per capita GDP higher than the national GDP per capita in Romania. In the Bulgarian area all the districts record a GDP per capita lower than the value of the indicator at national level in the Bulgaria.

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