Bringing the Future to the Present: Pre-Adapting Your Organization to What Happens After What Comes Next

1. Module One Bringing the Future to the Present: Pre-Adapting Your Organization to What Happens After What Comes Next Presented By: Thornton May Futurist

2. I Am A Futurist! 2004 +

3. Aural Rorschach Test “What Is the First Thing That Leaps To Mind When You Hear the Phrase: ‘Futurist’?

4. Aural Rorschach Test P.T. Barnum Tarot Cards

5. What Don’t ‘Working’ Futurists Do? What We Don’t Do:tell ‘fortunes’ [Prophecy is a habit of fools”]don’t write ‘best sellers’ [most books are obsolete before they hit the shelves]don’t only ‘do’ the rubber chicken circuitmindlessly spit out statistics with no interpretationdon’t talk about things or issues we know nothing about [the seagull thing]

6. What Do ‘Working’ Futurists Do? Future of…Consumer BehaviorWorkWealth ManagementGovernment RegulationHealth CareEducationWarTechnology 1. We document ‘linearities’ [trends]Where Have We Been?Where Are We Today?Where Are We Going? 2. We analyze specific end pointsWe are “Temporal Travel Agents” Just as historical novelists [e.g., Leo Tolstoy] bring to life the places of the past, Futurists bring to life the places of the future

7. What Do ‘Working’ Futurists Do? 3. We test drive potential products, processes and people4. We document skills sets and minds sets critical for success in the future

8. My Objective Today? Convert All of You into Rapid DogFuturists

9. Four Techniques for Futuring Tracing LinearitiesDeja ViewingBringing the Future to the PresentExperience Hitch-Hiking

10. Deja Viewing Deja Viewing, a technique frequently used to craft insight-producing, behavior-changing scenarios of what lies ahead [and what actions should be taken], involves looking intensely at the attributes of the current period and asking,‘Have we experienced anything like this before?’

11. Two Deja Views Emerged The post-Sputnik 1960s – the launch of the Russian satellite October 4, 1957 shook a fundamental and almost universally held belief that Americans were and would always be significantly ahead of the Soviets is ALL aspects of science and technology. The universally examined and widely adopted practice of outsourcing higher end IT work similarly has shaken the belief that America and Americans would always lead the world of computer technology.The first big management consulting fad - ‘scientific management’ [late 19th and early 20th century] - Frederick Taylor synthesized a program designed to assist management reduce waste through the careful study of work and adoption of standardized work practices. The processes of IT are being closely studied with an eye toward simplification, standardization and significant improvement in productivity.

12. Bringing the Future to the Present Go to a future point in time and paint a picture of what you want to happen.

13. Bringing the Future to the Present Famous Example ofBringing the Future to the Present During a joint session of Congress on May 25, 1961, President Kennedy went out a decade and saw an American on the moon.

14. Bringing the Future to the Present Before we can Bring the Future to the PresentWe have to develop a rudimentary capability in‘technology linearity.’

15. 20 Years Studying How Organizations Make Decisions Reveal Three Different Kinds of Futures 1. The Future That Is A Predictable Linear Extrapolation of the World We Live In Today 2. The “Oh S_ _ _!” Future That Happens to You 3. The Future We Create All of our ‘Nexts’ Will Be A Blended Portfolio of These Kinds of Futures

16. ‘Linearities’the ‘school figures’of Futuring Where we have been?Where we are today?Where we are going? Piet MondrianRhythm of Black Linesc. 1935/42

17. Story “May-san, Ware-ware mondai ga arimasu yo!”

18. Linearities Head-Set Exercise In your groups,please divide the years1987 through 2017into‘computational eras’.[no less than 2, no more than 6]

19. Head Set Exercise What Patterns/Trends [if any]do you thinkmanifested themselves in the responses of hundreds of executives?

20. Head-Set Exercise Do you suppose the hundreds of senior executives participating in this exercise tended to spend more time talking about:The Past or the Future?The Gadget or the Behaviors enabled/required by the Gadget? The Cost or the Value? General Understanding of How IT works?What was happening inside the enterprise or outside the enterprise?

21. Base Case Outputs: Computational Eras Exercise ???A.M.O. NOW! InternetEnterprise Software Client Server Personal Computing Source: Thornton May, The New Mental Landscape: A Forensic Analysis of ‘C’ Level Thinking About Information Technology Mainframe

22. ‘Linearities’ the ‘school figures’ of Futuring Management teams have real problems figuring out how longs line last.

23. When you hear the words, • technology imagination • What comes to mind?

24. technology imagination • Is a business process that has to be managed, measured and very much improved upon. • Technology imagination is the process • that tells us what we want technology to do for us. Short Term Technology Imagination = “Alignment” Longer Term Technology Imagination = “Vision”

25. In the Immediate Future, • We Face A Crisis of Technology Imagination • The tech program at Camp Wing is run by a Waltham nonprofit called WiredWoods. The goal is to get campers interested in using computers creatively -- rather than just surfing the Web and dashing off instant messages. • ''We're careful to make sure it doesn't feel like school.'‘ • There aren't any lectures in the WiredWoods cabin -- only projects to work on, and four adult ''project specialists'' to help out when campers have questions. • ''When we started this in 2001, we were responding to a particular problem,'' Deninger says. ''There were computers everywhere, but we couldn't get kids to want to do anything other than sit there and surf the Web. And surfing the Web is a lot like watching TV -- it's passive. So we try to catalyze their interest in creating, rather than just consuming.'' • Scott Kirsner, “Technology fun comes to summer camp,” New York Times (7/21/2003).

26. BadNews ‘C’ Level IT Landscape The thought processes of Thought Leadersinside many companiesregarding information technologyare in most casestragically flawed

27. The Mixed Marbles Exercise 1000 Red Marbles 1000 Blue Marbles Red Bin Blue Bin 20 from Blue Bin to Red Bin- then 20 from Red Bin to Blue Bin. At the end of 3 Round Trips, which container has more of the ‘alien’ color in it?

28. One of the Key Outputs of Any Strategic Planning Initiative Document widely held assumptions regarding:“how longs line last.”[e.g., what changes&what stays the same?]

29. Stuff Space Plan Services Skin Structure Site Futuring is All About Determining How Long Do Things/Should Things Stay the Same? How Buildings Learn,1994 daily / monthly 3 years or so 7- 15 years 20 years or so 30 to 300 years The rebuilding of American cities, for example, involves a 35 year cycle. The expansion of medical services involves 15 year planning [the time it takes to enter college and complete medical board exams. H.Kahn & A. Wiener, The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three years (1967).

30. The Bias of ‘Moderns’ to Believe that “Lines” No Longer Exist New College, Oxford despite its name was founded in the late 14th century. It has a great dining hall with big oak beams which are 2 feet square and 45 feet across. A century ago, a building examiner poked a pen knife into the beams and discovered they were full of beetles. This was reported to the College Council, who met in some dismay, lamenting where they would ever find beams of that caliber.

31. Macro-Linearity An enterprising Council Member suggested that there might be on College lands some oak as English Colleges are endowed with pieces of land. They approached the College Forester who pulled his forelock and said, ”Well sirs, we was wonderin’ when you’d be asking.”

32. Linearity Upon further inquiry it was discovered that when the College was founded, a grove of oaks had been planted to replace the beams in the dining hall when they became beetly. College architects knew oak beams always become beetly in the end. This plan had been passed down from one Forester to the next for six hundred years. “You don’t cut them oaks. Them’s for the College Hall.”

33. Problems With Linearity Market researchers deciding whether to put a train station in a town currently without one, sends market researchers to the town to see if there is any demand for a station. Upon arriving in the town, the researchers see no one waiting for a train and therefore conclude, there is no demand.

34. “I would not be surprised if the Russians reached the moon within the week.” John Rinehart of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory in Cambridge, MA October 1957

35. “Soon they will be dropping bombs on us from space like kids dropping rocks onto cars from freeway overpasses.” Senator Lyndon Johnson October 1957

36. People Misunderstand LinearityThe Cumulative Impact of Time A congressman was discussing US energy needs with a futurist. The congressman pointed out that adequate conservation measures and modest lifestyles could reduce growth in electrical demand to 2 percent per year. “But Congressman,” said the modeler,”even at 2 percent per year, electrical demand will double in 35 years.” “That’s your opinion!” exclaimed the Congressman. The point is not to mock legislative innumeracy but to underscore that even the most technically valid model doesn’t guarantee useful communication or productive interaction.

37. Technology Timelines

38. 1.General ComputingTruths FUTURE 2003 2005 - 2007 2010 10 GHz processor; 2TB database; 1GB link – all for $800 Infrastructure owned by nobody [Internet];carrying pieces of programs following no architectural design [client server]; running across flaky LAN protocols;connecting powerful systems run by amateurs. Processing Power Doubles Every 18 monthsStorage Capacity Doubles Every 12 monthsBandwidth Throughput Doubles Every 9 months Big Ideas BIG IDEAS1. Technology advances are not slowing down.“We will make as much progress in the next 18 months as we had during the entire history of computing up to today.”2. Computing devices of tomorrow will not be like the computing devices of today.

39. History of Technology 101… The technology era we are just about to enter will feature intelligent, semi-aware, always-on devices made by other intelligent, semi-aware devices driven by ubiquitous, nano-scale, data collecting sensors. In 10 years, every molecule on the planet will be IP Addressable. RF-ID and GPS on key fobs are just the tip of the iceberg.

40. The Crisis in Technology Imagination

41. Too Much Cash? Cash balances at 372 industrial companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 21% in 2003. [That’s the biggest increase in cash since the economic peak in 2000, when cash jumped 26%.] Cash balances at Lehman up 147%; at ExxonMobil up 47%. Microsoft is sitting on $53 billion in cash. Matt Krantz, “Companies cope with too much cash,” USA Today (March 2, 2004), 1B.

42. The Future of IT is Global Challenge 1: In rural Lebanon, there is a group of village schools which have no access to computers, nor to the internet and no connectivity. The school headmasters wish to introduce regular IT classes and teach word processing and access to the Internet. No donor is willing, at this time, to put in even a modest amount of computers and computing infrastructure in the schools. How can the headmasters realize their dream? Challenge 2: In Sri Lanka, farmers in rural areas have problems ranging from pests infecting the crops, to a cow that is not providing milk. The farmers have heard of the internet, but most of them are illiterate, and do not know English. Besides, they have no access to computers. How can farmers access knowledge on the internet, without computers or hand-held devices? Challenge 3: In a village of 6.5 million villagers in Karnataka, India, land records are critical for the villagers to get access to crop subsidies, for widows to qualify for pensions, and as a means of identity. The system is riddled with corruption and red tape, where village officials need to be bribed. A public-private partnership wants to address the issues using IT. What should be done? Mohamed Muhsin, Vice President & CIO, the World Bank Group

43. Technology Imagination Drives Value… • “The competitive advantage you gain from using information technology is not based on storing or moving bits around, but based on what you do with them.” • Gregor Bailar, CIO • Capital One

44. The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994 Bring the Future to the Present... Horrific traffic jams and motorist congestion California Transportation Department (Caltrans) estimates 24 months to fix a key destroyed bridge on the Santa Monica Freeway [in Beverly Hills]. Economic cost of the bridge being closed to the flow of traffic $1,000,000 a day. Mayor Dick Riordan faces the first crisis of his young administration [started his job July 1993]

45. The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994 Bring the Future to the Present... C.C. Meyers, innovative contractor and entrepreneur based in Sacramento gets excited. He sketches out the rough skeleton of a plan and then he proceeds to act on it as though he has the future in the palm of his hands. He contacts eight people.

46. The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994 Bring the Future to the Present... Thursday morning The first person CC calls is a woman who used to work for him. She was his administrative assistant. She knows his style. She is very well connected in LA. He says to her, “Please Arrange for me a 15 minute meeting with the Mayor of the City of Los Angeles anytime tomorrow, Friday.” He has given her a purpose.

47. The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994 Bring the Future to the Present... He then contacts six key bridge building subcontractors. He tells them to be ready to report to the bridge site with the best team of specialists they can assemble to work on the bridge at the beginning of next week. He has given them purpose and asked them to prepare to do adaptive planning. He acts as if he has the future in the palm of his hand. Does he have a contract? Does he know he will get the contract?

48. The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994 Bring the Future to the Present... The eighth phone call he makes is to his attorney. “I have drafted a half page which is my commitment but I need you to work on it and notorize it.” It is signed and notorized. He relaxes. Things have been set in motion.

49. The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994 Bring the Future to the Present... Thursday evening His former AA gets back to him. “Tomorrow you have a meeting with the mayor of the City of Los Angeles at 3 o’clock. Does the mayor know about this meeting yet? No – but his secretary does.

50. The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994 Bring the Future to the Present... Friday meeting with the Mayor “Mr. Mayor, I am here to tell you that I will have the Santa Monica freeway bridge open safely to the flow of traffic in six months.” The Mayor asked, “How can you do this?”