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Learn how to create a Request for Proposal (RFP) for an innovative Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) that includes state-of-the-art weather forecasting and road maintenance functionalities.
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Putting Together a RFP that includes MDSS Functionality National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO October 20, 2005 Andy Stern Consulting Meteorologist Mitretek Systems
Objective • There are many new and innovative techniques, visualizations & innovations by both the research & services community available each season • The state of the art in weather and road maintenance keeps moving forward • Don’t just settle for a typical package of winter maintenance support – PUSH THE ENVELOP to your advantage!
Determination of Need • Some questions to ask as you begin: • Do you know your region’s climate? • Micro-climatology • Influences by terrain or water • Special challenges (e.g., permafrost, lake effect) • What is your risk temperament? • Mobility Policy / Chemical Policy • Are you proactive (anti-icing vs. reactionary)
Factors to Consider • Is your staff open to learning new methods? • Does your staff work well with computers? • Do you have access to wideband internet? • Is your staff open to training? • Will your staff participate in both customizing & validating a MDSS system?
Shopping for Forecast Elements • Sifting through what is available versus what you need for operations • Avoid data overload • Typical elements that are available • Air Temperature • Dew Point Temperature • Relative Humidity • Wind Direction/Speed/Gustiness • Sky Condition
More Forecast Elements - Precip • Probability of Precipitation • Precipitation Type (deterministic) • Precipitation Type (conditional) • Precipitation Accumulation • Liquid Equivalent Accumulation • Precipitation Rate/Intensity • Probability of Reaching Threshold Amounts
More Forecast Elements-Surface • Road Surface Temperature • Bridge Temperature • Probability of Road Frost • Probability of Bridge Frost • Blowing Snow Potential • Road Temperature Crossing Thresholds • forecast of road temp falling below 35F • forecast of road temp at onset of precip
More Elements - Miscellaneous • Visibility • due to fog, smoke, haze, dust • due to falling precipitation • due to blowing precip that has already been deposited • Solar Insolation (short/long wave, total) • Evaporation Rate • Confidence Levels in particular & important elements
Forecast Preparation Frequency • Hourly forecasts (for how long?) • 6 hourly forecasts (for how long?) • Next day forecasts • 3-5 day forecasts • Static forecast preparation times • 3 pm for planning overnight & next morning • 3 day forecast on Fridays • 3 day forecast over holidays
Forecast Formats & Delivery • Tabular versus Graphical • Beeper • Text Message • Internet • Toll Free Phone Lines • PDA • XML • Satellite Delivery
MDSS Functionality (1) • Visualization tool for combining complex data sets and presenting an easy to use and understand maintenance guidance and weather information • Displays hourly forecast information (18-24 hours) • Calculated road conditions • Suggested maintenance actions • Fully customizable for routes & maintenance policies
MDSS Functionality (2) • What-If scenarios – allows for recalculation of treatment strategies by manual entry of treatment parameters • Blowing Snow Advisories • Road/Bridge Frost Advisories • Snow Drift Forecasts • Forecast Archiving • Accepting data directly from GPS/AVL
Professional Team • Don’t be afraid of meteorologists. We are geeks – and are generally harmless • Insist on a team with meteorologists that are both degreed and have experience in surface transportation forecasting • Real forecasters are not afraid of verification (but they tend to have gray hair) • Make sure that they can communicate effectively (reduce the techno-garble)
Resources • www.rap.ucar.edu/projects/rdwx_mdss/documents/index.html • “Road Weather Forecasting and Observations: Assessment of Current Capabilities and Future Trends” • “MDSS Functional Specification Template and Procurement Guidance” • Contact Paul.Pisano@fhwa.dot.gov for additional information