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2012 Crop Market Outlook

This presentation discusses the supply and demand dynamics, pricing trends, and the impact of biofuels and export markets on the crop market outlook for 2012 and beyond. It also highlights the worldwide response to drought-induced pricing and the potential implications for the agricultural industry.

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2012 Crop Market Outlook

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  1. 2012 Crop Market Outlook AFBF Commodity Outlook Conference Baltimore, Maryland Oct. 11, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  5. U.S. Cotton Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  6. Price Ratios Since May 1

  7. Crop Conditions Source: USDA-NASS

  8. Projected Corn Yields

  9. Objective Corn Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

  10. Projected Soybean Yields

  11. Objective Soybean Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

  12. Winter Wheat Production Source: USDA-NASS

  13. Other Spring Wheat Production Source: USDA-NASS

  14. Durum Wheat Production Source: USDA-NASS

  15. Projected Cotton Yields Source: USDA-NASS

  16. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  17. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  18. World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  19. World Cotton Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  20. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  21. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  22. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  23. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  24. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  25. Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  26. Cotton Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  27. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  28. Ethanol Stocks Source: DOE-EIA

  29. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

  30. Current Corn Futures 6.90 5.93 5.58 Source: CME Group, 10/10/2012

  31. Current Soybean Futures 14.37 12.70 12.29 Source: CME Group, 10/10/2012

  32. Current Wheat Futures 8.09 8.16 Source: KCBOT, 10/10/2012

  33. Current Cotton Futures Source: ICE, 10/10/2012

  34. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS

  35. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  36. Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  37. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Soil moisture issues • Biofuel and export strength • Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing

  38. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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