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WP2: Transportation trends and energy implications

Prof. Konstantinos G. Zografos Athens University of Economics and Business TRANsportation Systems and Logistics Laboratory (TRANSLOG) e-mail: translog@aueb.gr. WP2: Transportation trends and energy implications. CONTENTS. Objectives Conceptual framework Freight transport energy use

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WP2: Transportation trends and energy implications

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  1. Prof. Konstantinos G. Zografos Athens University of Economics and Business TRANsportation Systems and Logistics Laboratory (TRANSLOG) e-mail: translog@aueb.gr WP2: Transportation trends and energy implications

  2. CONTENTS • Objectives • Conceptual framework • Freight transport energy use • Passenger transport energy use • Concluding remarks

  3. OBJECTIVES • Identify the relationship between freight/passenger transport and energy • Take into account the evolution of the political, socio-economic and technological environment

  4. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

  5. FREIGHT TRANSPORT ENERGY USE

  6. FREIGHT TRANSPORT ENERGY USE(I)

  7. FREIGHT TRANSPORT ENERGY USE(II) SCM TRENDS EFFECTS ON FREIGHT TRANSPORT SYSTEM UTILIZATION INDICATORS INFLUENCING ENERGY USE IN FREIGHT TRANSPORT PEST DRIVERS • Fiscal • Transport • Environmental • Energy • Land use • Regional development • Globalization • GDP • E-commerce • ICT • Spatial concentration of inventory and production • Wider geographical sourcing and distribution • Vertical disintegration • Outsourcing • Direct and Nominated day deliveries • Reverse logistics • Development of break-bulk/transhipment systems • Freight transport demand(ton-km/capita, veh-km/capita) • Freight transport modal split • Average length of haul • Load factor • Handling factor • Freight transport vehicle consumption • Number of trips • Length of trips • Frequency of trips • Vehicle utilization • Penetration of alternative vehicle technologies • Fleet composition • Energy efficiency • Fuel supply infrastructure

  8. FREIGHT TRANSPORT ENERGY USE(III)

  9. FREIGHT TRANSPORT ENERGY USE(IV)

  10. CONCLUDING REMARKS – FREIGHT TRANSPORT (I) • Major drivers of the broader environment: • Globalization / market deregulation • Technological progress • Growing affluence • Policy changes (fiscal, transport, environmental, energy use, land use and regional development) • Growing economies of scale • Mass customization • These drivers contribute to an ever-increasing intensity of freight transportation.

  11. CONCLUDING REMARKS – FREIGHT TRANSPORT (II) • Freight transportation service characteristics: • Use of more energy efficient freight transportation vehicles • Improvement in vehicle utilization, higher load factors and reduction of empty runs • Increase of the use of intermodal freight transportation

  12. CONCLUDING REMARKS – FREIGHT TRANSPORT (III) • Scenarios should consider the following trends: • Increasing demand for freight transport services • Increasing fuel efficiency for freight transport vehicles • Increasing efficiency in the use of freight transport vehicles • Increasing intermodality, leading to different modal split

  13. CONCLUDING REMARKS – FREIGHT TRANSPORT (IV) • Trends affect the following freight transport utilization characteristics: • Number of trips • Length of trips • Frequency of trips • Vehicle utilization

  14. CONCLUDING REMARKS – FREIGHT TRANSPORT (V) • Modelling energy use in freight transport should consider the following indicators: • Freight transport demand (ton-km/capita, veh-km/capita) • Freight transport modal split • Average length of haul • Load factor • Handling factor • Freight transport vehicle fuel consumption

  15. PASSENGER TRANSPORT ENERGY USE

  16. PASSENGER TRANSPORT ENERGY USE(I)

  17. PASSENGER TRANSPORT ENERGY USE(II) EFFECTS ON PASSENGER TRANSPORT SYSTEM UTILIZATION INDICATORS INFLUENCING ENERGY USE IN PASSENGER TRANSPORT PEST DRIVERS MOBILITY TRENDS • Fiscal • Transport • Environmental • Energy • Land use and spatial development • Social life-styles • Population demographics • Globalization • GDP • Penetration ofalternative vehicle technologies • Car ownership • Traffic management technologies • Fleet composition • Energy efficiency • Vehicle technologies • ICT • Fuel supply infrastructure • Increase in mobility • Virtual mobility (tele-shopping, tele-working) • Time and space compression (travelling further-faster) • Decrease in public transport use • Increase in private car use • Number of trips • Distances travelled • Frequency of trips • Vehicle utilization • Passenger transport demand (pax-km) • Passenger transport modal split (pax-km/mode) • Vehicle occupancy rate • Average length of trips • Passenger vehicle fuel consumption

  18. PASSENGER TRANSPORT ENERGY USE(III)

  19. PASSENGER TRANSPORT ENERGY USE(IV)

  20. CONCLUDING REMARKS – PASSENGER TRANSPORT (I) • Major drivers of the broader PEST environment: • Growth in affluence • Globalisation, European integration and market deregulation • Growing economies of scale • Declining residential densities • Increased mobility (number and length of trips), faster and more flexible realization of mobility needs, increase in the use of private automobiles.

  21. CONCLUDING REMARKS – PASSENGER TRANSPORT (II) • Passenger transport service characteristics: • Use of more energy efficient private automobiles • Increase in the more efficient use of private automobiles through more effective traffic management • Use of innovative demand management policies and measures • Substitution of travel by communication services • Efforts to redirect trips from road and air to environment-friendly public transport

  22. CONCLUDING REMARKS – PASSENGER TRANSPORT (III) • Scenarios should consider the following trends: • Increasing demand for passenger transport services • Increasing fuel efficiency of private automobiles • More efficient use of automobiles • Introduction of policies and concepts for more efficient travel demand management

  23. CONCLUDING REMARKS – PASSENGER TRANSPORT (IV) • Characteristics of passenger transport system utilization affected by mobility trends: • Number of trips produced • Distances travelled • Frequency of trips • Vehicle utilization • Choice of fuels

  24. CONCLUDING REMARKS – PASSENGER TRANSPORT (V) • Modelling energy use in passenger transport should consider the following indicators: • Passenger transport system demand (pax-km) • Modal split per transport mode (pax-km/mode) • Vehicle occupancy rate • Average length of trips • Passenger car fuel consumption

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