Introducing methodological changes in the UK: the role of robust sign-off procedures.

1. Introducing methodological changes in the UK: the role of robust sign-off procedures. Marianthi Gongou National Accounts Coordination and Development Division ONS, UK

2. Content 1. Understanding the organisation’s needs • Developing a new method • Peer Group Appraisal Process • The role of the Nat Accs Methods Committee • Implementation • A practical example • Questions

4. Understanding the organisational need • The process needs to: Meet the Concepts of Nat Accs & Statistics Framework Be timely Minimise Burden on resources

5. What is a “new method”?

6. New method STEP 1: “A change in sources or calculation used to produce an output.” WHY? International Standards Loss New Calculation Source Method R&D Quality Reclassification

7. New method STEP 1: Discuss with DD Complex change Simple Change MC Approval required Update documentation Log change with MC Prepare for PGA  Change

8. Step 2: Peer Group Appraisal • Membership (Essential): Chair/Deputy of Nat Accs methods committee, relevant statistician, affected branch heads, DDs (2), methodology rep. • How acceptable are the new methods? • How acceptable are the new sources? • How robust are the new methods with Nat Accs concepts?

9. Step 2: Peer Group Appraisal • Methodology • The scale of proposed changes • Outside interest • Effect on systems (including GNI process tables) • Illustrative estimates • National Statistics Quality Framework

10. Step 2: Peer Group Appraisal OUTCOMES: • Fully accepted • Conditionally accepted • Initially rejected • Rejected Decision reached by consensus (vote).

11. Step 3: Nat Accs Methods Committee • Responsible for formally approving new method and make a recommendation to the Nat Accs director. • Chair of Nat Accs MC decides when methods should be brought to committee. • Meet regularly – no unacceptable gap with PGA • “Extraordinary” meeting in exceptional cases

12. Step 3: Nat Accs Methods Committee MEMBERSHIP: • Chaired by Head of Nat Accs Coordination • Attended by Head of Nat Accs Methods, Coordination all DDs STRUCTURE: • Fixed powerpoint & summary document templates • Proposer expected to provide 1 page summary • Timing: 15mins presentation & 20mins discussion

13. Step 3: Nat Accs Methods Committee OUTCOME  Accepted OUTCOME  Rejected NA MC Accept new method Chair informs NA Director NA Director accepts or rejects proposal Recommendations for improvement NA MC Explain why method is unacceptable Restart proposal process Role of PGA ?

14. Step 4: Implementation Nat Accs Methods • Period open to revisions • Economic significance • Interest from outside • Impact on systems • Effect on other compilers • Methods review • Timetable

15. The life-cycle of a new method Peer Group Appraisal New method Nat Accs Methods Nat Accs Director Nat Accs MC

16. A practical example New method Radio & TV – Industry 92.2 Loss of VAT proxy & SIC2007 Source

17. A practical example Sky TV: Alternative indicators MIDSS Turnover data Pricing & deflation Proposal: subscription data BBC & S4C: Reclassified to Central Govt. Proposal: Adopt productivity adjusted employment (FTE) data

18. A practical example How significant are recreational, cultural & sporting activities? 3.9% of IoS 2.9% of GDP of that radio & TV activities 32.1% GVA Relevance of data sources Reliability of data sources Impact on quarterly growths Revisions Outcome accepted

19. A practical example MC approved new method Included in 2009 Blue Book Nat Accs Methods

20. Questions