’Future of work ’ in a military perspective

1. ’Future of work’ in a militaryperspective AI,robotic and autonomous systems in Multi-DomainBattlefields PH.D. KATRINE NØRGAARD, FORSVARSAKADEMIET

2. ’Future of Work’ in a MilitaryPerspective • Some ’mega trends’ in emergingmilitarytechnologies: • AI, Big Data and Autonomous Systems • Setting the strategiccontext: • The Third Offset Strategy and the technopolitical Revolution of MilitaryAffairs • Possibilities and challenges in Multi-DomainBattle: • Human-Machinecollaboration and risk management in Hybrid Networks • Future attributes of military forces?

3. Mega Trends: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Predictive Analytics and Big Data AI and machine learning can process large volumes of information and discern from it intangible connections between people, places and events. Predictive Analytics is the process of generating insight for inference or forecasts of future states from Big Data. Huge amounts of data (Big Data) in the future battlespace means potential for analytics to deliver insight across all warfighting and defence domains, real time decision support, early warnings of crises and real-time monitoring. The integration of deep learning systems to mobile platforms will enhance the robotic capabilities for navigation within dull, dangerous, dirty or heavy, hot, and hazardous situations. AI could enable fully autonomous explosive ordnance disposal in urban areas.

4. Mega Trends: UAV’s, UGV’s and AutonomousRobotic Systems UAV’S and UGV’s are vehicles that may be remotely controlled by a person or may act autonomously depending on the mission. Applications include allowing for access to unreachable areas, persistent surveillance, endurance, robots in support of soldiers, and cheaper, automated logistics deliveries. Robot Flying Taxi can evacuate 2 casualties Swarm of micro-UAV’s

5. Mega Trends: Manned-UnmannedTeaming (MUM-T) and Risk Management As human-machinecollaborationmatures, AI willcontribute to faster and improved decision making • Identifyingstrategicindications and warnings • Advancing narratives and counteringadversarial propaganda • Supportingoperational/campaignleveldecision-making • Enablingleaders to employ ’mixed’ manned/unmanned formations • Enhancing the conduct of specific defensive missions in whichfunctions of speed, amount • of information and synchronizationmightoverwhelm human decision-making (The U.S. ArmyRobotic and Autonomous Systems (RAS) Strategy, March 2017)

6. ’Future of Work’ in a MilitaryPerspective • Mapping the risks in future battlefields • Legal and ethical concerns: • The threshold problem • The proportionality problem • The discrimination problem • The responsibility problem • Security concerns: • System malfunction • Programming errors • Proliferation • Cyber attack

7. ’Future of Work’ in a Militaryperspective The strategiccontext: RMA and ’The Third Offset Strategy’: “The Third Offset’s initial vector is to exploit all the advances in artificial intelligence and autonomy and to insert them into DoD’s battle networks to achieve a step increase in performance that the department believes will strengthen conventional deterrence”. (Deputy Secretary of Defence, Bob Work, 2016) C4I Battle Network: “A sensor grid that sees what's happening in theater, a command, control, communications, computers and intelligence, or C4I, grid that makes sense of what's happening and offers a range of effects, a grid that achieves the chosen effects and a logistics and support grid that keeps the network running” (ibid).

9. The accelerated/ deceleratedbattlespace

10. ’Future of Work’ in a MilitaryPerspective Compression of time and space in Multi-Domain Battle:

11. ’Future of Work’ in a MilitaryPerspective Multi-DomainBattle Management and Cross-Domain Maneuvre: Battle Management Network: Command, Control, Communications, Computer and Intelligence (C4I) sensor gridor ‘hybrid network’.

12. ’Future of Work’ in a MilitaryPerspective • Requirements for the ‘Future of Work’ in Multi-Domain Battle: • Risk Management in Hybrid Human-Machine Battle Networks • Cooperative human-machine perception, analysis, evaluation, organization and communication of risk to targeted audiences • Critical capacity, creative thinking and experimentation • Prudent decision making in Multi-Domain Battle Networks, requires critical capacity and risk management by policy makers and warfighters in the operative, administrative and political risk environment

13. ’Future of Work’ in a MilitaryPerspective • Attributes of future military forces? • Intelligent human-machinecollaboration , coordination and problem solving in all domains of operation • Adaptive • Interoperable • Mobile, modular and dispersedhuman-machine teams • Automated ’Leader-Follower’ convoys and logistical support • Integratedcybercapabilities Top 10 skills in 2020 1. Complex Problem Solving 2. Criticalthinking 3. Creativity 4. People Management 5. Coordinatingwithothers 6. Emotionalintelligence 7. Judgment and Decision Making 8. Service Orientation 9. Negotiation 10. CognitiveFlexibility

14. ’Future of Work’ in Multi-DomainBattlefields Questions?