Coastal Oceans and Shelf Seas: Science Coordination for Sustainable Forecasting

1. Activities of the Coastal Ocean and Shelf Seas Task Team Pierre De Mey, LEGOS/U. Toulouse Villy Kourafalou, RSMAS/U. Miami

2. Oregon CTZ SST 24 Aug 2003 (OSU) (CSIRO) Coastal ocean specifics • Focus: shelf break exchanges, shelf dynamics, coastal current & associated (sub-)mesoscale • Influence of coastal ocean processes felt far beyond shelf break, overlaps & interacts with open ocean dynamics • Shelves mostly influenced by tides and atm forcing + fast propagating events • Specific tools: downscaling/b.c.s, free-surface HF, fronts, data assimilation adapted to anisotropic/coupled dynamics

3. Talk outline • TT objectives, incl. Monday discussion topics • Current activities • January 2012 workshop • Quick application examples

4. GOV Coastal Oceans and Shelf Seas Task Team • The Coastal Ocean and Shelf Seas Task Team (COSS-TT) continues the action of the GODAE Coastal and Shelf Seas Working Group (2006-2009) • De Mey, P., and R. Proctor, 2009 : Assessing the value of GODAE products in coastal and shelf seas. Editorial, Special Issue of Ocean Dynamics, 2007 GODAE Coastal and Shelf Seas Workshop, Liverpool, UK. Ocean Dynamics, 59, 1–2, DOI 10.1007/s10236-008-0175-0. • De Mey, P., P. Craig, F. Davidson, C. A. Edwards, Y. Ishikawa, J. C. Kindle, R. Proctor, K. R. Thompson, Jiang Zhu, and the GODAE Coastal and Shelf Seas Working Group (CSSWG) community, 2009 : Applications in coastal modelling and forecasting. Oceanography Magazine, 22, 3, 198-205. • The main goal of the TT is to work in coordination with the GOV-ST and GOOS towards the provision of a sound scientific basis for sustainable multidisciplinary downscaling and forecasting activities in the world coastal oceans. • The strategic goal of the TT is to help achieve a seamless framework from the global to the coastal/littoral scale. • The TT was created in 2009 but several key activities only started this year. The first international TT workshop is scheduled in Jan 2012 in Miami.

5. COSS-TT Objectives as per workplan • Review ongoing coastal ocean forecasting projects in the world coastal oceans, with a particular focus on model assessment; • Define and implement an “adequate level” of international scientific coordination between coastal ocean forecasting projects, with the main goal of advancing science in support of coastal ocean forecasting, but considering scientific as well as operational/applicative objectives; • Discuss linkages and establish a common framework that can be communicated to funding agencies with the goal of establishing funded pilot projects; • Define the links with GOV, and in particular the steps to be taken to enhance the added value of GOV for coastal ocean forecasting projects, and of coastal ocean forecasting projects for GOV.

6. Current TT membership Not final – new members considered, TT to be updated following workshop

7. What we try to achieve • The main objective of the TT is more the scientific coordination of (ongoing) coastal ocean forecasting systems (COFS) than a science forum as the previous CSSWG. • We try to gather people who are good scientists, who are directly or closely associated with the development of COFS, and who can commit (along with their teams) to homework decided together at TT workshops. • In the TT membership, we favor coastal systems with clear objectives and calendar. We will discuss linkages between projects on the basis of common objectives, as well as the possibility of pilot projects involving several groups. • The downstream/applicative aspects are important for us insofar as they open new fields for science. Also it is important to bridge the gap between funded academic research (mainly from government funds) and applications suitable for the industry.

8. Topics of Monday discussion • What specific focus should this group have? Not just one – • R&D • Aim at determining “best” practices, “what works” • Try to get the most advanced teams to collaborate weo • Coastal and shelf seas DA • More difficult than in the open ocean • However DA framework can be used for other purposes than DA (validation, error bars via ensemble fcst, array design, sensitivity, etc.) • Drivers analogous to GHRSST and ARGO for GODAE? Challenges – • Rather short term – 2013/2014 • Prepare for SWOT, need for complementary in situ observations (HF radars, coastal observatories, cal/val sites, etc.) • Evaluation of coast-specific altimetry products (as 1st step) • Improving regional atmospheric forecasts (Gulf of St Lawrence), coupled modelling • Assessment strategies, error bars • What can we do with the available observations? (often lacking) • Use of large-scale products: i.c.s, b.c.s, assimilation (e.g. scale-selective) • Need for data differs in shelves vs. deep areas • Matching model & forcing resolutions w/ observations & applications • Level of interdisciplinarity • Outreach

9. Two key areas of activity as per workplan • Convene co-sponsored forums to discuss “targeted” science issues • Establish community links between coastal ocean forecasting projects with the objective of advancing science in support for coastal forecasting  next slides

10. Targeted science • Coastal ocean science (phy, phy/bio) • Multidisciplinary mesoscale and sub-mesoscale shelf break exchanges, shelf dynamics, connectivity, coastal currents, waves, transport of land based waters, nutrients, sediments and pollutants, topographic controls on circulation and exchange and air-sea interaction. • The influence of coastal ocean processes is felt far beyond shelf break, thus interacting with open ocean dynamics and controlling the connectivity of remote ecosystems. • R&D • Downscaling from larger-scale models • Assessment of model errors, e.g. metrics, Ensemble modelling • Impact of observations, array design, assessment of observational errors • Enhancements to predictability. • Application-targeted science: linking applications with underlying predictable variables (+ stating desirable prediction ranges and accuracy) • HF sea level: e.g. storm surges • Surface currents, nearshore currents: e.g. maritime safety, oil industry, nuclear industry, environmental protection • Temperature, density, vorticity: e.g. fisheries, aquaculture, sonar prediction

11. Area 1. Convene co-sponsored forums to discuss targeted science issues • Activity continuous since 2006 • Organised by GODAE CSSWG: (up to Nov 2008) • Beijing, China, Oct 2006: “Coastal and regional applications of GODAE” (session in GODAE Symposium “GODAE Symposium on Ocean Data Assimilation and Prediction in Asia-Oceania”) • POL, Liverpool, UK, Oct 2007: “Assessing the value of GODAE products in coastal and shelf seas” (workshop) • Ocean Dynamics special issue (Vol. 59, Feb 2009) • Organised by GOV COSS-TT: (starting Dec 2008) • AGU Fall Meeting 2008, San Francisco, USA, Dec 2008: “Advances in prediction capabilities of interdisciplinary nested models in coastal and shelf seas” (1 oral session + posters) • Ocean Sciences Meeting 2010, Portland, USA, Feb 2010: “Advances in Coastal Ocean Prediction: Nested Modeling” (2 oral sessions + posters) • Ocean Sciences Meeting 2012, Salt Lake City, USA, Feb 2012: “Advances in Coastal Ocean Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction” (3 oral sessions + posters)

12. Area 2. Establish community links • Activity mostly started this year • Coordination workshops • First international coordination workshop, U. Miami, USA, Jan 2012  next slides • Second workshop before GOV review • PDM presented the TT at Hamburg symposium on the Future of Operational Oceanography (FutOOre, 25-27 October 2011) • Discussions regarding EU actions linked w/COSS-TT, e.g. affiliated EU group • Two failed attempts submitting a COST-ESF action for a network, with funds to meet (2010, 2011) • Ongoing discussions with EuroGOOS (Dahlin, Gorringe) on creating a Coastal Modelling WG linked with the COSS-TT  making progress

13. First international coordination workshop (ICW-1)U. Miami, USA, 10-12 Jan 2012 • 3 days • Announcements: 1st May 10; 2nd + registration Oct 10  TT, GOVST, invitees • Particular focus on model assessment for this workshop • Membership can evolve following workshop

14. Workshop agenda Mostly scientific coordination: • Review ongoing (national) coastal ocean forecasting activities • People to represent more than their teams: national/regional activities • For each system, provide: • Discuss good practices & common strategies – in particular re: model assessment & error estimates, tools (model, nesting, DA) • White Paper • Identify the objectives we have in common; discuss homework and collaboration between projects on that basis • Aim at starting pilot projects involving several groups (difficult within 2 years) • Discuss use of altimetry in coastal ocean systems • Short-term step: evaluation of dedicated products: PISTACH, COASTALT, CTOH • Perspective of SWOT: HR/HF modelling, complementary in situ observations • Examine linkages with regional GOOS & PICO

15. Community assessment of model error in the BoB: ensemble-based error estimates SST Ensemble stdev(°C) in response to wind uncertainties MARS3D :: MANGA 15/01/2008 (IFREMER+ACTIMAR, Heyraud et al.) NEMO :: BISCAY 21/01/2008 (MERCATOR+LEGOS, Quattrocchi et al.) SIROCCO 3DFD :: BOB 21/01/2008 (LEGOS, Ayoub et al.) Obs noise floor (can be correlated) 31 d.o.f.’s of prior error detectable above noise floor Representer matrix eigenspectrum RECOPESCA fishing net array (Lamouroux, Charria et al.) (theory: Le Hénaff and De Mey, 2009) • Specific response on the shelf (intense, faster, small-scale patches) • Specific response over the abyssal plain (weaker, slower, filament-like) • (replace “response” by “errors” above, given the specific error source) • Use error proxies to guide data collection in coastal regions

16. ICW-1 attendees – current status • Will recontact people who did not respond + other invitees in the next days (including MEP-TT chairs, Patrons group)

17. ICW-1 attendees – current status • Half of current TT did not respond  membership v2? (we want an active TT!) • Recontact people who did not respond + other invitees *very* soon (including MEP-TT chairs, Patrons group) APPLICATION EXAMPLES

18. Application-targeted science: Fukushima-Daiichi radionuclide dispersal • Simulations with the Toulouse SIROCCO 3DFD at request of IAEA • Some results (e.g. atmospheric deposition) sensitive to large-scale estimates • Movies available on http://sirocco.omp.obs-mip.fr MERCATOR SST Time averages of Cs concentration in surface waters NCOM SST Mar 20 – Apr 20: High inputs & strong confinement due to rather calm wind conditions May 1 – May 31: Wind events causing dispersion June 1 – June 30: Wind events causing dispersion (typhoon Songda) Bq/l (Estournel, Ulses, Marsaleix)

19. GULF OF MEXICO RESEARCH INITIATIVE: newly funded 8 multi-Institute coastal to regional Consortia

20. Coastal altimetry - the concept • Satellite altimetry designed for open ocean • BUT coastal region has enormous strategic importance • Almost 20 years of data over the coastal ocean are still unexploited • normally flagged as ‘bad’ in the official products - but they can be recovered! • Many possible uses • sea level, currents, waves - not only long term studies and climatologies, but also specific hazardous events (surges) • Assimilation into coastal models • Tides • It is a legitimate component of coastal observing systems • See Cipollini et al., OceanObs’09, Community White Paper, 2010 Provided by P. Cipollini, NOC

21. Coastal Altimetry • Challenging technological aspects • waveform retracking, • path delay correction, • coastal tides • Both validation and applications require exploitation of coastal models & in situ • Important climate applications • Long-term aim: global climatology of coastal sea level and waves • Example: Agulhas Current Transport time-series - need coastal altimetry as current is very close to coast. • Space Agencies have seed-funded R&D in coastal altimetry • Also preparatory to new missions (CryoSat, AltiKa, Sentinel-3) • COASTALT (2008-2011): ESA-funded, for prototype Envisat Coastal Altimeter processor, NOC Southampton leading (Paolo Cipollini), 5 EU partners. Prototype data distributed October 2011, see http://www.coastalt.eu • PISTACH (2007-2011): funded by CNES for Jason-2, Data available via AVISO: • http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/index.php?id=1527 • International coordination via COASTALT-SWT (Science Working Team), and Coastal Altimetry Workshops (Silver Spring 2008, Pisa 2008, Frascati 2009, Porto October 2010, San Diego Oct 2011), reporting to OSTST. Provided by P. Cipollini, NOC

22. Gulf Stream example: Influence of resolution between Altimetry data sets Standard Altimetry data points Coastal Altimetry data points

23. Thank you! pierre.de-mey@legos.obs-mip.fr vkourafalou@rsmas.miami.edu