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European Territorial Scenarios and Vision 2050

This project aims to create a territorial vision for Europe in 2050, involving relevant stakeholders at European, national, and regional levels. It combines scientifically-driven scenarios and models with politically-driven decision-making to shape a sustainable future for European territory. The project evaluates policy aims, defines criteria and indicators, and engages in participatory activities with main stakeholders. The goal is to build a dynamic and cyclical vision that guides decision-making towards a desirable future for Europe.

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European Territorial Scenarios and Vision 2050

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  1. European Territorial Scenarios and Vision 2050 ESPON ET2050 JUNE 2013 Dublin

  2. ET2050 Consortium

  3. http://www.et2050.eu

  4. ET2050 Goal FromProject Specifications: The ESPON Monitoring Committee, DG Regio and the ESPON Coordination Unit wish to start a territorial vision-building process that involves relevant stakeholdersat European, national and regional level, having 2050 as time horizon

  5. ET2050 Methodology Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?) Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?)

  6. Definition of criteria to evaluate policy-aims • Definition of relative weights (in the ESPON MC frame) • Identification of scientifically sound indicators to measure the criteria (to be calculated with outputs produced by forecast and foresight models) • Evaluation of the scenarios, and based on the evaluation adjustment of the scenarios • Evaluation of the VISION, and based on the evaluation refinement

  7. European Territorial Vision 2050 A Vision is a dream of an ideal future for European territory

  8. Howtobuild a territorial Vision Scientific input (scenariosand models towards 2050) To be presented 13 June, andcfleafletbackground) Existing territorial Visions Cf SIR, chap 9 & annex + poster to commentduring ESPON seminar Other material (ESPON projects, EU documents, OECD, World Bank strategies, ....) Participatoryactivitieswithmainstakeholders

  9. Howtobuild a territorial Vision

  10. Main objective of the the Participatory Plan Scientifically-driven The building process of the scenarios and the Territorial VISION should be cyclical and dynamic allowing the ESPON Monitoring Committee and other main stakeholders to take active part in the of the VISION VISION Scenarios Politically-driven

  11. Participatoryplanandactivities A database: around 800 contacts , including different type of stakeholders (cf specifications); planning practitionner, European Commission, • (including Sec Gen, DG CLIM, DG ECFIN and DG EMPL, as requested by the ESPON CU),Council of the EU (DG G1 Regional Policy Team), European Parliament (REGI Commission), Committee of the Regions, ECOSOC, various other EU bodies/agencies (EEA, etc.), public interest groups (e.g. AEBR, AER, CPMR, Eurocities, Metrex), territorial groupings (Council of the Baltic Sea States, Danube Strategy, Grande Région, Plan Bleu, INTERREG programmes, etc.), non EU international organisations (Council of Europe, International Maritime Organisation, UNECE, UNEP, etc.) various national planning administrations (in particular past, current and coming presidencies of the NTCCP). • Group 4 includes a broad category of “scientific experts”, as well as two specific categories: ESPON project Lead Partners, and ESPON Contact Points.

  12. Contactandconsultations: Parpfirstphase • Spring 2012 first round consultations, +/- 50 interviews (cf FIR synthesis) • Fall 2012: second round consultations: EuropeanCommission , EESC,(cf SIR synthesis) • 2 meetingswith D Huebnerfrom REGI committe of theEuropeanParliament, andcontactwithCoR • Workshopswith MC (cf FIR and SIR)

  13. Territorial Visionroadmap /Parpphase 2 Summer 2013 elaboration of DRAFT 1 Territorial VisionDelivery: 23 September 2013 7 October 2013, Brussels: ESPON dayworkshop/Conference on territorial Visionandscenarios - a plenarysessionpresentinglastscenariosevolutionsandmodeling, AndDraft 1 TEVI - Workshop on theDraft 1 TEVI Participants: all participants to phase 1 Parp Purpose: Gather input for Draft 2 TEVI Co ownershipbuilding

  14. Territorial Visionroadmap MidNovember 2013: Draft 2 TEVI December 2013: EsponseminarLithuania MC workshop on draft 2 TEVI 28 February 2014: Draft final report, includingdraft 3 TEVI Spring 2014: MC workshop on Draft 3 TEVi June 2014: Final report, ESPON seminarGreece Presentation of final TEVi to MC

  15. workshop 12 June Dublin A Vision is a dream of an ideal future for European territory Which Europe should your children and grandchildren live in?

  16. Twoactivities: Purpose: to collect your views on the desirability of key policy choices NOT about the likeliness Activity 1: rankingandselecting Anonymous individual exercise 35 minutes Activity 2:Mapping: subgroup mixed geographically 70 minutes WorkshopDublin, 12 June

  17. Activity 1: individual, anonymous 11 questions 2 groups of questions 1-6: ranking: relate to Europe as whole 7-11: selecting: betweenpolicychoices alternatives (potentiallyantagonistic), A OR B , atdifferentgeographicallevel no A and B for thesamequestionatthesamegeographicallevel For thesamequestion, Possibility of A for onegeographicallevel, and B for another WorkshopDublin, 12 June

  18. Example: Ranking: • EU Enlargement • Is it desirable to enlarge the EU with new Member States (MS)? YES/Rather yes/rather not/No • Comment: feel free to comment: • questionnaire will be treated qualitatively, not quantitatively WorkshopDublin, 12 June

  19. WorkshopDublin, 12 June • Example: selecting:

  20. WorkshopDublin, 12 June • Activity 2: mapping group per 8 countries

  21. MAPS: 4 geographical levels • Europe in the world towards 2050 • ESPON space and neighbouring countries towards 2050 • Inside ESPON space • Regional Europe • Having in mind 2050 Vision (ideal future)

  22. MAPS towards Vision 2050

  23. MAPS • )

  24. MAPS: Towards Vision 2050

  25. MAPS: towards Vision 2050 • Which links Europe should favour with • The world • Neighbouring cpuntries • Inside ESPON space • Where to invest in priority in • The world • Neighbouring cuntries • Inside ESPON space

  26. MAPS towards Vision Et 2050 • Which areas shoud be protected (environnement or patrimonial) • At cross border areas with neighbouring countries • Inside ESPON space • Which cooperation to favour at regional and macroregionalevel • Core territory • Ad hoc, larger cooperation

  27. instructions • 3 posters • 4 geographical levels • 5 maps • 15 minutes per geographical level • 8 countries per group • No constraint • Be ‘European’ Vision 2050 oriented, • trying to reach a ‘group’ agreement, • Possibility for specific request, demand, suggestions: poster+questionnaire

  28. OUTLINE FOR DISCUSSION TOWARDS TERRITORIAL VISION EU 2050 Key Issues fromexistingmacroregional Visions BALTIC SEA & NORTHERN PERIPHERIES TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE FOR 2030 (VASAB) NORTHWESTERN EUROPE Feel free to add your comments! In 2030 the Baltic Sea Region is a well-integrated and coherent macroregion A model for successful implementation of the territorial cohesion policy The Spatial Vision New transnational cooperation zones A well-balanced setup of metropolitan centres Fast, reliable and environmentally efficient technologies of transport, information and communication international gateways investment zones transnational transport axes development corridors Integrated energy production and supply system A veritable European sea macroregion, which demonstrates an integrated land and sea-space planning and management The NORVISION well integrated into europe and the World Economy Contact us: balanced spatial structure EASTERN EUROPE Democratic and Co-operative Planning GERMANY AND ALPINE COUNTRIES igeat.ulb.ac.be vcalay@ulb.ac.be www.et2050.eu Natural Resources, Ecological and Cultural Heritage Equilibrium Shrinking populations et negative migration balances Impact of neighbouring countries Urban Regions Developing in an Environment Friendly Way Greater inter- & intraregional disparities Urban Regions as Motors of Economic Regional Development Improvement of land use management RaumkonzeptSchweiz Urban Regions which Promote Social Integration sustainable development at the core Reinforcement of capital cities and major urban centres difficulties in reducing GHg emissions And in increasing renewable energies Urban Regions which are Attractive Places for their Populations and Visitors Maintenance and enhancement of living spaces, economic areas and landscapes Improvement of transport structure and accessibility Improvement of governing structures & decentralisation Human Activities which are in Harmony with Nature Polycentric spatial development pattern enhancing competitiveness and territorial cooperation and partnerships Rural Populations participate fully in Economic and Social Progress Focused mainly on metropolitan regions and medium sized towns but includes some alpine regions. DANUBIAN COUNTRIES The ATLANTIC SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE GREATER SOLIDARITY BETWEEN COASTAL AREA AND THE HINTERLAND LeitbilderderRaumentwicklung (Germany) Vision for the Danube region Growth and innovation: organization of the territory around large metropolitan regions TO RESPOND TO THE NEED TO STRUcTURE DEVELOPMENT AREAS WHICH ARE LESS DEPENDANT ON THE CAPITAL CITIES An integration of all the countries of the zone to the European union Maintaining essential services: safeguarding an urban system of central places, in particular in areas facing population decline IDENTIFIES FIVE MAJOR PROJECT AND DEVELOPMENT AREAS INSIDE WHICH STRONGER – BUT NOT EXCLUSIVE – COOPERATION BETWEEN REGIONS IS REQUIRED A balanced economic development and employment Preserving resources, designing cultural regions: open space and cultural landscapes A polycentric and decentralized development dynamic Climate and energy as well as mobility and logistics to be included An improvement of relations between countries and regions of the zone SOUTH MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES SOUTHWESTERN EUROPE SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE SOUTHERN EUROPE IN 2030 (espon) THE MEDITERRANEAN IN 2030 Development of the cluster of the Latin Arch (Genoa, Nice, Marseille, Montpellier, Barcelona and Valencia) & Integration of the cluster Madrid-Seville Lisbon-Porto (HST network) The Blue plan Territorial fragmentation at the scale of the macroregion A STRONGER AND RICHER ECONOMIC GROWTH Local governance / participatory approach / Long term vision An accentuated urban dimension in pan-Mediterranean cooperation A contrasted urbanization: dense but polycentric in Italy and slovenia while dense and concentric in Egypt and lybia DEVELOPPING EURO-MEDITERRANEAN SYNERGIES rural areas and landscapes in Europe are much more diversified Diversification of the rural economy High quality food production A worsening governance capacity and an uncertain future after the Arab spring EXTENDING CERTAIN MEANS OF REDISTRIBUTION AND PROTECTION TO THE WHOLE OF THE MEDITERRANEAN numerous changes have taken place in agricultural production, energy systems, water management systems and tourist development, in order to face the impacts of increasing drought Small and medium scale agriculture Water and energy-friendly production and technology Contrasting demographical challenges: population ageing in slovenia and italy while young population in Lybia and egypt with various impacts on socio-economic and socio-cultural factors Repairing and restoring coastal ecosystems Biodiversity conservation Threat of desertification that should be (partly) tackled by the development of green economies; turn to renewable energies; lybia and egypt as solar powers STRENGHTENING COMPETITIVENESS The densification process of coastal areas has continued but further sprawl could be avoided and natural areas were efficiently protected Development of renewable energies Improving transport systems Sustainable tourism Hinterland economic and social development

  29. “Existing Vision key issue poster (Dublin castle + questionnaire to be distributed at the end

  30. “Too seek Europe, is to make it! Europe exists through its search for the infinit -and this is what I call adventure” Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”

  31. www.et2050.eu IGEAT vbiot@ulb.ac.be vcalay@ulb.ac.be

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