Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report

1. www.ec.gc.ca Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report NAEDEX-21 Meeting Asheville, North Carolina. 17-19 Septembre 2008 Gilles Verner Chief, Data Assimilation and Quality Control Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Mike Manore Director, Monitoring Strategies and Network Design Meteorological Service of Canada

2. Outline • Current Operational Status: • Space Based Monitoring and Satellite reception facilities • Computers and Telecoms • Canadian AMDAR and other MSC observations • Data issues and problems • Operational NWP system at CMC and data usage • Recent changes and Future Developments: • ISO-9001 certification : forecast system • New assimilation set-up for regional system and 06/18Z runs • Modification to EPS • Incorporation of additional observations in assimilation • Next version of global system (raised lid and new obs.) • New SST analysis

3. Organizational Structure ‘Space-Based Monitoring’ - Environment Canada lead: Mike Manore • understanding satellite data requirements • Environment Canada wide • meteorological, climate, ice, marine oil spill, wildlife habitat, etc,…. • ensuring data access & exchange • coordination/arrangements with satellite operators and other users • gov’t-to-gov’t, gov’t-to-agency, commercial • MoU with NOAA, Agreement with Eumetsat… • all appropriate missions and sensors • operation of EC satellite data reception and processing systems • within Gov’t of Canada ‘Shared Federal Infrastructure’ • EC leadership for operational meteorological missions • operate as a national network: GOES- Alfheim; HRPT - Bradley • future missions • influence future missions to meet EC requirements • Canada (CSA), International • E.g. CSA PCW mission

4. CSA PCW Mission • Cooperation CSA, DND, EC • Concept of 2 satellites in HEO (Molniya 12-hr orbit) • ABI-like imager, 2015 timeframe • Proto-operational, North Polar areas only (Nof60) (2 other sat. needed for South Polar areas) • Phase 0 just completed • Phase A kick-off next week, opportunities for cooperation to be examined • Mission funding not yet secured • EC: Louis Garand, Mike Manore, Gilles Verner

5. MSC Satellite Data Reception Facilities EARS - Eumetsat Upgrade to Resolute HRPT site and telecoms is underway Resolute Dartmouth HRPT site moved to Gander GOES Gander HRPT EARS Edmonton (2) Vancouver Dartmouth Winnipeg CMC (3) Ottawa Toronto

6. Canada-EUMETSAT Cooperation Agreement • Signed Fall 2007 • 8 areas of cooperation • science and product development • participation in SAFs, visiting scientists • optimize data acquisition and exchange of satellite data and products • specific agreements –e.g., EARS • define requirements and opportunities to improve high-latitude observations • explore options for Canada to contribute to EUMETSAT mission instruments • build on CSA associate membership in ESA • share training experience and materials • cooperation in GEO, including projects in developing countries • GEONETCast • exchange views on matters of satellites and satellite meteorology • explore possibilities for longer term cooperation

7. Computers and Telecoms • Final upgrade to IBM: 2 clusters, upgrade is underway: • current is OPS: 40 nodes, and R&D: 60 nodes • to reach OPS/DEV: 80/120 nodes by Dec08, and • to reach 80/180 nodes by June 09 • Total of 4512 P5+ processors (9024 virtual) by mid 2009 • New procurement for 2010-11 • Upgrade to SGI-FE’s: 2 x capacity, replacement with Linux clusters underway • CFS: 2 PB tape capacity • Links to NOAA-TOC (GTS), UKMetO (Sat data + GTS back-up), EUMETSAT (EARS) • Link to NOAA-NESDIS soon (may be done by now) • Internet still used for much satellite data • EumetCast / GeoNetCast being considered

8. Canadian AMDAR coverage

9. Canadian AMDAR - Status • AC Jazz: 46 CRJ and 42 DHC-8 on GTS, 2 CRJ and 14 DHC-8 retained due to problems with data quality. More CRJ to be added. CRJ data very good. DHC-8 may be removed. • Still issues with DHC-8 TT data, although improved. Problem is related to data averaging aspects in avionics. Not corrected. • No progress with AMS and First Air. TAMDAR approach does not seem viable for these aircraft. • Still trying to obtain data from NavCanada CRJ’s (2), hopefully to be this fall. Some data samples just obtained. • Negotiations on-going with WestJet, slow progress. • MSC-ADAS has replaced former C-ADAS software, in-house Linux based system. • Monitoring of data is on-going and showing importance of good monitoring before distribution of data.

10. TT data quality – JAZZ CRJ and DHC-8 April 2007 CRJ Aircraft data are good. For DHC-8 Aircraft, significant difference in bias between ascent / descent data. Related to smoothing algorithm in avionics.

11. Other Canadian observations • “Synoptic” observations from CTBTO network, using SYNOP MOBIL code, header: SNCN19 CWAO. Observations every 10-min, 10 stations for now but should increase, received at CMC by e-mail: data problems as reported by MetOffice : surface elevations not available or wrong. • Canadian radar data - now available centrally at CMC, NRP (National Radar Processor) operational, full volume scans available. Provided to NOAA. • Forestry and Road weather stations in British Columbia - data received at CMC, in old SA format. Data redistribution restrictions currently apply…should eventually be available in BUFR. • Co-operative network in Quebec (Province, Hydro-Quebec, etc), received at CMC, also redistribution restrictions…problems with BUFR data. • Some research wind profilers in Southern Ontario and Quebec: operated by Universities, data now available to CMC and should be inserted on GTS in the near future, in BUFR code: headers to be communicated as soon as available. • Some soil TT data now available, eventually in BUFR. • New equipment for radiosondes. Should improve wind quality, also includes provision for 4D data in BUFR. Data available at stations but not yet on GTS. • Ozone soundings on GTS (KULA01 CWAO) and total column ozone. • Major data management project in MSC, should lead to all data available in BUFR. • Potential development of surface GPS Network. Lead: Godelieve Deblonde. • Surface Weather stations for 2010 Olympics (Whistler) already on GTS.

12. Canadian Profilers Resolute Bay also probable

13. McGill VHF Profiler (Montreal)

14. Clovar Profiler (London, Ont.)

15. Resolute Bay profiler (Arctic)

16. Some ADS data now collected in Northern Canada ADS data East of 30° W now available. Thanks to UK-Nats. Availability of aircraft data : status ADS data collected by NavCanada: UANT01 CWAO – on GTS

17. Reception of ADS & AIREP data Occasionl drop in ADS data

18. Some data issues • SSM/I data : any chance to get F15 back, status of F14? • SSM/I data quality issues – some stray scans and orbit identification and/or positioning/labelling • SSM/IS – status to be discussed at this meeting, F17-18 • « Slower » access to Metop data • Access to some data on GTS has been problematic to CMC: IASI (300 ch subset) due to link saturation, dropsondes over Western Pacific (obtained from MetO), • AMSU – timeliness of N15, N16 (not primary) • Need for a Eumetcast-Europe-like system for Americas – GeoNetcast with similar content as Eumetcast?

19. SSM/I reception

20. AMSU/MHS Assimilated

21. Stray scans in SSM/I Can be removed by proper filtering

22. Mislabelled SSM/I Orbits • Visual Check - 21/06/2006 - 00Z • =============================== • 1. Two orbits appear in a BURP file before they should exist: 58036F13, 58037F13 • ^58017F13 0 0 55 0 000400 20060620 1608 168 521324 1060 • ^58018F13 0 0 19 0 000400 20060620 1749 168 507960 522384 • ^58019F13 0 0 35 0 000400 20060620 1929 168 549274 1030344 • ^58020F13 0 0 55 0 000400 20060620 2115 168 437448 1579618 • ^58021F13 0 0 2 0 000400 20060620 2303 168 481674 2017066 • ^58022F13 0 0 40 0 000400 20060621 33 168 523274 2498740 • ^58023F13 0 0 40 0 000400 20060621 212 168 475824 3022014 • ^58036F13 0 0 55 0 000400 20060621 17 168 518364 3497838 • ^58037F13 0 0 11 0 000400 20060621 158 168 479724 4016202 • ^58024F13 0 0 27 0 000400 20060621 344 168 537574 4495926 • ^58025F13 0 0 15 0 000400 20060621 526 168 644824 5033500 • ^58026F13 0 0 42 0 000400 20060621 730 168 538224 5678324 • ^58038F13 0 0 6 0 000400 20060621 330 168 514200 6216548 • ^58039F13 0 0 53 0 000400 20060621 511 168 643524 6730748 • ^58040F13 0 0 20 0 000400 20060621 716 168 514824 7374272 • Orbits 36 and 37 received before they should exist! Wrong date? • Also some serious orbit orvelapping

23. ^58020F13 ^58021F13 ^58022F13 Orbits 20 & 21 overlap but should not, look misplaced compared to orbit 22

24. No easy QC solution, would need knowledge about orbit identification scheme ^58036F13 ^58023F13 ^58037F13 Orbit 36 is before 23, 37 overlaps 23; Looks like mislabelled orbits and wrong location!

25. global assimilation cycle 4D-Var Analysis (data collection and assimilation) Models, 9-hour forecast (trial field) surface analyses GEM model Global (100km) : 0-10/15 days Regional (15km) : 0-48 hours HIMAP (10km) : 0-24 hours GEM model Global (35 km) : 0-10/15 days Regional (15 km) : 0-48 hours LAM (2.5 km) : 0-24 hours ensemble forecasts (20 members) monthly and seasonal forecasts Environmental Emergency Transport model (CANERM) Trajectory model Wave model (WAM) air quality (CHRONOS) CMC OPERATIONAL RUNS: MAIN COMPONENTS regional data assimilation

26. Data Assimilation – Fields Analyzed • Atmosphere (4D-Var) • Wind (U,V) • temperature + Ps • Moisture (ln Q) • Surface (OI) • air temperature • dew point depression • precipitation amount • sea surface temperature (also lakes) • mean sea level pressure • snow depth • ice cover • ice thickness • deep soil temperature • soil moisture • albedo • and other geophysical fields based on climatology 4-D analyses from surface up to 10 hPa (58 Levels) 2-D analyses at surface Global and Regional grids (some on LAM)

27. Observations assimilated in 4D-Var Type Variables Thinning Radiosonde/dropsonde U, V, T, (T-Td), ps 28 levels Surface report (SYNOP, SHIP, BUOYs) T, (T-Td), ps, (U, V over water) 1 report / 6h Aircraft (BUFR, AIREP, AMDAR, ADS) U, V, T 1o x 1o x 50 hPa per time step ATOVS NOAA 15-16-17-18, AQUA Ocean Land AMSU-A 4-10 6-10 AMSU-B / MHS 2-5 3-4 250 km x 250 km per time step Water vapor channel GOES 11-12 IM3 (6.7 m) 2o x 2o 3-hourly AIRS 87 IR channels 250kmx250km/time step QUIKSCAT U,V at 10 meter over ocean 100kmx100km/time step 7 MW channels 200kmx200km/time step SSM/IDMSP13-14 AMV’s (METEOSAT 7-9, GOES 11-12, MTSAT-1R) U,V (IR, WV, VI, 3.9μ channels) 1.5o x 1.5o 11 layers, per time step MODIS polar winds (Aqua, Terra) U,V ~180 km boxes 11 layers, per time step U,V Profiler (NOAA Network) (750 m) Vertical hourly

28. Horizontal Grid of meso global GEM Global-meso Previous model 400X200 -> 100 km, L28 800X600 -> 33 km at 45o N, L58

29. Regional model 575 X 641 grid (66% in 15-km uniform area), 58 levels

30. Currently 4 GEM LAM 2.5 km domains, plus new higher resolution domain for the Winter-2010 Olympics Topography at 2.5 km

31. Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting New assimilation setup for regional system on July 4, 2007 • 6 hour spinup cycle (previously 12) • 3D FGAT analysis 58 levels • Extension to 06/18Z forecast runs on July 3, 2008 Major upgrade of the ensemble prediction system on July 10, 2007 • 20 members up to 16 days at 0.9 deg (400x200) and 28 levels • Some stochastic physics Major changes to Global & Regional Systems on May 28, 2008 : • 50% increase in amount of assimilated data • AIRS, QuikScat, more AMV`s and AMSU • Removal of AMSUA-ch3 • RTTOV-8 and new vertical interpolation (Rochon), being incorporated into the RTTOV library • Off-line dynamical bias correction for all radiance data

32. New Assimilation set-up for Regional System • Update to 58 Levels and B Stats of meso-global GEM (from 28L, B stats from 100-km Global GEM) • Spin-up shortened to 6 hours (from 12) with 3D-Var FGAT, more benefit from Global 4D-Var • Snow depth anal. on 15-km model grid • New ice climatology, forcing a southern limit to the ice line (monthly) • Implemented July 4th, 2007 • Easy extension to 4 forecast cycles per day, implemented on July 3rd, 2008

33. R312 R118 R206 R200 R112 G200 G100 G218 G206 G112 G212 L’analyse est transmise R100 R212 R218 Champ d’essai est produit L’analyse est produite R106 R300 Regional 12 hr spin-up cycle

34. R312 R118 R206 R306 R200 R112 G200 G100 R118 R312 R112 R206 R100 G218 G206 R218 R106 R300 G112 G212 L’analyse est transmise R100 R212 R218 R318 Champ d’essai est produit L’analyse est produite R106 R300 Regional 6 hr spin-up cycle, allows extension to 06/18Z runs

35. Summer O-P 48h Winter (42 cases) (42 cases

36. 42 winter cases– synop and shef (00-24h)

37. Gain obtained with 4 regional runs per day,updates at 06/18Z (42 winter cases) zonal wind std zonal wind temperature

38. Changes to EPS implemented July 10, 2007 • New physics / New dynamics / Horizontal resolution • 20 GEM members (SEF not used in the new EPS)‏ • Horizontal resolution: 0.9° • Model lid: 10 hPa • Forecasts up to 16 days • Inclusion of two stochastic components in the physics • Multi-parameterization approach... • ENKF – True 4D with FGAT like innovations, 0.9° • Harmonization with NCEP for NAEFS

39. New Set-up for EPS b) Stochastic physical tendency perturbations • All physical tendencies on horizontal winds, temperature, and humidity of each member are multiplied by a random function: • Defined in the range [0.5 , 1.5] • With a decorrelation time scale of 3 hours • And a decorrelation length scale of ~1700 km

40. New Set-up for EPS c) Stochastic kinetic energy backscatter algorithm • Numerical models are over-dissipative near the truncation limit • This likely inhibits upscale energy transfer that can affect the large scale flow • It is thought that this phenomenon can be a cause of under-dispersion in EPSs • Parameterization: Inject energy near the truncation limit to compensate for the over-dissipation

41. Comparison between the former and new EPS Thin lines : New EPS Thick lines: Old EPS Mean of errors Error of the mean Ensemble spread Tropical RMS Scores Tropics

42. Major increment to assimilation systems:more observations in 4D-Var – May 2008 • AIRS & SSMI radiances • Dynamic bias correction for all radiance data • More low level AMV’s • QuikSCAT • Additional AMSU/MHS at larger scan angles Removed due to time: • GPS Occultations from COSMIC, CHAMP and GRACE • Metop ATOVS: AMSUA & MHS • SSMI/S radiances • 3 hourly sfc data • More levels from radiosondes and aircraft • Revised background & observation error statistics

43. Summary of the new components • AIRS radiance data (87 channels). • SSM/I radiance data (+ eliminating AMSU-A ch3 and new cloud mask for AMSU-B). • Going from RTTOV7 to RTTOV8.7 (and new vertical interpolation) • Inclusion of high scan angle AMSU data. • QuikScat oceanic surface winds (from KNMI). • 3.9 micron AMV (nighttime low level winds). • Dynamical bias correction for all radiance data. Current operational assimilation and forecast system • ~35 km resolution global forecast model (GEM with 800x600 points and 58 eta levels) . • 4DVAR global assimilation with 6 hour window . • 15 km regional forecast model over North America (58 eta levels). • 3DVAR FGAT regional assimilation with 6 hour spin-up cycle launched from global cycle every 12 hours (or 6).

44. Data volumes (typical for 6 hour) ~50% Increase of assimilated data

47. Recent NWP verification

48. Recent NWP verification

49. Next version of global system • Hybrid vertical coordinate, 80L, lid 0.1hPa • Li & Barker Radiation scheme • Hines non-orographic GWD • New error statistics (Buehner) • Additional AMSU and AIRS channels, IASI ? • AMSU/MHS from Metop • GPS-RO: CHAMP, GRACE, COSMIC, GRAS • ASCAT • SSM/IS • CSR data with RTTOV – 5 GEO • Bias Correction above 10 hPa • Target: Spring 2009

50. GEM STRATO global model