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RECENT ECONOMIC AND RESIDENTIAL MARKET TRENDS AND FORECAST PORTLAND METROPOLITAN AREA TICOR TITLE January 2010. Jerry Johnson Principal Johnson Reid, LLC. NATIONAL GDP GROWTH. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES. NEGATIVE EQUITY MORTGAGES. SOURCE: First American CoreLogic, August 2009.
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RECENT ECONOMIC ANDRESIDENTIAL MARKETTRENDS AND FORECASTPORTLAND METROPOLITAN AREATICOR TITLEJanuary 2010 Jerry Johnson Principal Johnson Reid, LLC
NEGATIVE EQUITY MORTGAGES SOURCE: First American CoreLogic, August 2009
HOME PRICING TRENDS SOURCE: Case-Schiller
COMMERCIAL PRICING TRENDS SOURCE: MIT
NATIONAL HOME SALES TRENDS SOURCE: NAR
FINANCING FOR HOMEBUYERSOCTOBER 2009 SOURCE: Campbell Communications
YEAR OVER YEAREMPLOYMENT CHANGEPortland Metro Area SOURCE: OLMIS
EMPLOYMENT CHANGEBY SECTOR – Portland Metro AreaSep-08-Sep-09 SOURCE: OLMIS
EXPANDING AND DECLINING INDUSTRY SECTORS - OREGON SOURCE: OLMIS
UNEMPLOYMENT RATEBaseline and with Discouraged SOURCE: BLS
NET CHANGE IN POPULATIONPORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Portland State Pop Center and Washington Office of Financial Management
POPULATION BY COUNTYLast Ten Years SOURCE: Portland State Pop Center and Washington Office of Financial Management
HOMEOWNER VACANCY RATES – NATIONAL AVERAGE SOURCE: Census Bureau
RENTAL VACANCY RATES – NATIONAL AVERAGE SOURCE: Census Bureau
ECONOMIC/DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS SUMMARY • CONFIDENCE LOW • High Unemployment • Significant Percentage of Negative Equity • BANKS WILL REMAIN ON DEFENSIVE • Residential Bust Followed by Commercial Bust • Foreclosures Likely to Continue • LOCAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS NEGATIVE • Loss of 60,000 Jobs • Employment Back at 2005 Levels • PRICING APPEARS TO HAVE FOUND A BOTTOM • Lots of Residential Overhang Remains
CASE-SHILLER INDEX SOURCE: S&P/Case Shiller, Seasonally Adjusted
STANDING RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY IN MONTHSPORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service
RESIDENTIAL INVENTORYPORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service
RESIDENTIAL INVENTORYPORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service
NEW LISTINGSAND CLOSED SALESPORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service
ESTIMATED INVENTORY OF LOTS IN MONTHS SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service
MARKET CONCLUSIONS • FUNDAMENTALS IMPROVING • Standing Inventory at 6.5 Months • Very Low New Home Inventory • THREATS REMAIN ON HORIZON • Pricing Stabilizing, but Foreclosures Coming • Unemployment Too High – Will Peak in 2010 • PRICING POWER LIMITED • Shadow Inventory • Limited Confidence • CONDO MARKET DEAD UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
MARKET CONCLUSIONS • FIRST TIME TAX CREDIT • Less Effective over Time • May be Setting Up FHA for Crash • CHANGE IN PRODUCT TYPE • First Time Homebuyer Target • Loss in Equity Will Impact Move-Up Markets • METRO – URBAN GROWTH REPORT • Not Even Trying Anymore • Expect No New Residential Land