Ilia Ilyin , Olga Roz o vskaya, Oleg Travnikov M eteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

1. EMEP Case study: Assessment of HM pollution levels with fine spatial resolution in Belarus, Poland and UK Ilia Ilyin, Olga Rozovskaya, Oleg Travnikov Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

2. Czech Republic Croatia Netherlands Belarus Country-scale pollution assessment Case studies of HM pollution in selected EMEP countries Approach: Evaluation of pollution levels in a country with fine spatial resolution involving variety of national data • Requirements: • Detailed emissions data (fine resolution, source categories, LPS) • Additional measurements from national monitoring networks • Participation of national experts in joint analysis of the results Countries involved:

3. 50 Pb air conc. 10 3 Model, ng/m 1 Berezinskiy Reserve (Belarus) 0.1 0.1 1 10 50 3 Observed, ng/m Case study for Belarus (Pb, 2012) • Purpose: • Investigate changes in the model performance due to transfer from coarse to fine resolution • Provide the country with data on lead pollution levels with fine spatial resolution Calculationof boundary concentrations for country-scale modelling domain Official EMEP emission data used Pb in air, 2012 EMEP domain Factor of 2 ~ 40 stations Factor of 3 ng/m3 50x50 km2 - obs. sites The model reasonably well reproduces Pb pollution in the EMEP region, keeping in mind existing uncertainties (EMEP/MSC-E status report 2014)

4. kg/km2/y kg/km2/y Emission data involved in the study EMEP emission (CEIP) 50x50 km2 National data 10x10 km2 • National emissions: • High-resolution totals • Gridded sector data • Large Point Sources Total in Belarus: 8.3 t Total in Belarus: 68 t (2012) This value used in calculations

5. BY urban stations (national experts) Berezinskiy reserve (national experts) EMEP station (CCC) PL stations (AirBase) Monitoring data in modelling domain (Pb, 2012) Berezinskiy Reserve (Belarus) • Monitoring data (conc. in air) • 1 EMEP station in Poland (Diabla Gora, PL5) • 1 background site (BerezinskyReserve, Belarus) • 5 background urban sites in Poland (EU AirBase data) • 19 urban stations (Belarus)

6. Belarus 6% Remaining 22% Italy 3% Slovakia 3% Germany Poland 3% 52% Ukraine 11% Model output for Belarus with fine spatial resolution • Pollution levels with fine (10x10 km2) resolution • Source-receptor relationships for the country and its regions • Pollution from particular emission sectors • Contamination from particular LPS • Pollution of cities

7. Diabla Gora (EMEP site,PL5) Berezinskiy Reserve (Belarus) Analysis of simulated pollution levels in the modelling domain (10x10 km2) Urban sites, Poland Concentrations in air (Pb, 2012) Factor of 2 Factor of 3

8. EMEP station Seasonal variations of modelled and observed air concentrations (Belarus) Berezinskiy Reserve – reference station for further analysis

9. Analysis of uncertainties Three sources of uncertainties: 1) Measurements 2) Model 3) Emission data Uncertainties of monitoring data Data Quality Objectives for HM analytical methods: ±15-25% from expected (theoretical) value • Monitoring uncertainty of ‘Berezinskiy Reserve’ is unknown Pb air conc. in 2012 (EMEP data) • Participation of national laboratory in intercomparison of analytical methods coordinated by CCC is appreciated • Air conc. in ‘Berezinskiy Reserve‘are comparable with those in other parts of the EMEP region

10. Uncertainty of the model Intrinsic model uncertainty (without effect of emission) Sensitivity coefficient Intrinsic model uncertainty is ±30-40% for concentrations and deposition Reference: Travnikov O. and I.Ilyin [2005], EMEP/MSC-E Report 6/2005

11. kg/km2/y Uncertainties of the emission data Average Pb emission flux Emission in Belarus: national (8.3 t/y ) Observed urban Pb concentrations Pb emissions in 2012 and urban obs. sites Pb emissions in 2012 • Observed air conc. in BY and other countries are comparable • Emission fluxes differ markedly

12. Non-Industrial Combustion Industry Road transport Other Emission sectors in Belarus and neighbouring countries (Pb, 2012) Belarus (national data) Latvia Poland 6% 25% 75% 21% 4% 43% 2% 3% 6% 66% 19% 30%

13. Pb emissions from ‘Road Transport’ and ‘Non-industrial combustion’ sectors Pb emission fluxes in 2012 in the EMEP region Non-Industrial Combustion Road Transport Belarus: Data from national experts Other countries: CEIP

14. 2.5 3 2.0 1.5 Modelled Air concentrations, ng/m 1.0 Observed 0.5 0.0 Obs. Base Case Sensitivity study of modelled air concentrations at ‘Berezinskiy Reserve’ to emission Total value provided by national experts Bias,% -66

15. Scenario 1 • Emission data for Belarus (68 t/y) is used • Spatial distribution of emissions: as in the national data in Belarus

16. 2.5 3 2.0 1.5 Modelled Air concentrations, ng/m 1.0 Observed 0.5 0.0 Obs. Base Case Scenario #1 Sensitivity study of modelled air concentrations at ‘Berezinskiy Reserve’ to emission The same as officially reported value for 2012 Bias,% -66 -56 significant bias still remains

17. 4 Non-industrial Combustion 3 Road Transport Pb emission, t per million of people 2 1 0 Latvia Russia Poland Ukraine Belarus Slovakia Hungary Lithuania Germany Czech Rep. EMEP mean Scenario 2 Purpose: Fitting of modelled and observed air concentrations at station ‘Berezinskiy Reserve’ The aim is NOT to revise national emission data! Approach: Per capita Pb emission in 2012 in sectors ‘Non-Industrial Combustion’ and ‘Road Transport’ • Emissions in sectors ‘Non-Industrial Combustion’ and ‘Road Transport’ are increased proportional to populationdensity. Spatial distribution of emissions changed. • Total emission in Belaruschanged from 8.3 to 137 t/y • The change of emissions took place only in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia

18. Spatial distribution of national and scenario emissions (Pb, 10x10 km2) National emissions (8.3 t) (Base-case run) Scenario emissions (137 t) LV LV LT LT PL PL BY BY kg/km2/y RU RU UA UA

19. 2.5 3 2.0 1.5 Modelled Air concentrations, ng/m 1.0 Observed 0.5 0.0 Obs. Base Case Scenario #1 Scenario #2 Sensitivity study of modelled air concentrations at ‘Berezinskiy Reserve’ to emission Bias,% -66 -56

20. 2.5 3 2.0 1.5 Modelled Air concentrations, ng/m 1.0 Observed 0.5 0.0 Obs. Base Case Scenario #1 Scenario #2 Sensitivity study of modelled air concentrations at ‘Berezinskiy Reserve’ to emission -1 Bias,% -66 -56 • Joint efforts of the EMEP Centres, and national experts and TFEIP are needed for further analysis of emission data in EECCA countries

21. Model output for Belarus with fine spatial resolution: base-case vs. scenario #2 Air concentration of lead in 2012 Base-Case Scenario #2 Emissions assumed in Scenario #2 led to significant increase of calculated pollution levels in Belarus

22. Conclusions and recommendations • Assessment of pollution level assessment for Belarus with fine spatial resolution was done.The country was provided with detailed country-specific information with fine (10x10 km2) resolution. • Analysis of the available national emission data shows that Pb emissions in Belarus and in neighbouring EECCA countries from sectors ‘Non-Industrial Combustion’ and ‘Road Transport’ are likely underestimated. Therefore, calculated lead pollution levels in Belarus may be underpredicted. • Model sensitivity study demonstrates that the modelled Pb pollution levels are sensitive not only to emission total values in countries but also to their spatial distribution. • The suggested emission scenario led to improvement of modelling results compared to observed levels. However, joint efforts of the EMEP Centres, national experts and TFEIP are needed for further analysis of emission data in the EECCA countries.

23. Conclusions and recommendations (cont.) • Evaluation of quality of measurement data in Belarus under supervision of CCC is appreciated. • Pollution levels in Belarus are strongly affected by emission sources in neighbouring countries. To better understand origin of pollution in Belarus, similar studies in other neighbouring countries (PL, UA, RU) would be helpful. • Similar case studies of pollution level assessment in Belarus could be carried out for other pollutants (e.g., for particulate matter). It could be useful to better understand peculiarities of atmospheric pollution in Belarus.

24. Pollution assessment for Poland (Cd) (in progress) Purpose: Evaluate Cd pollution levels in Poland with fine spatial resolution (10x10 km2) Emissions of Cd from point sources in 2012, kg/y Available data: • Point-source emissions of Cd (provided by Poland) - Power stations - Production of coke - Copper smelting - Production of cement • Area sources (to be derived from EMEP data) Cd total deposition from point sources • Monitoring data - EMEP data - AirBase • Modelling under preparation

25. Simulation of HM levels over the U.K. (Centre of Ecology and Hydrology) with fine spatial resolution (preliminary results) Main purposes: • Simulate Pb pollution levels with fine spatial resolution (10x10 km) • Compare modelling results of MSC-E and national FRAME model • Evaluate a role of wind re-suspension in HM levels in the U.K. National data: • Emissions (1x1 km) • - Source categories • - Point sources • Monitoring data • - Air concentrations (32 sites) • - Wet deposition (8 sites) • Concentrations in soil Pb total deposition in 2012 (10x10 km2) More details: in the next presentation by Massimo Vienno

26. Thank you for attention!

27. kg/km2/y Uncertainties of the emission data Pb emission flux Pb total emissions in 2012