WAGENINGEN UR - CCB CLIMATE CHANGE AND BIOSPHERE RESEARCH CEntre

1. WAGENINGEN UR - CCBCLIMATE CHANGE AND BIOSPHERE RESEARCH CEntre • www.wau.wageningen-ur.nl/ccb/ • from a misconception to a key thematic focus • from the past to the future • upcoming period of main opportunities for CCB Wag UR

2. Enhanced effects Reduced/temporised effects (Adaptation) Terrestrial Biosphere and land-use changes Terrestrial Biosphere and land-use changes Climate Global Change Hydrology Nutirient Cycle Enhanced effects Positive effects (Mitigation) Conceptual Framework II Effects Terrestrial Biosphere Recovery era? Exploitation era Natural variations Effects

3. CCB Research Themes • Role of land cover in regional energy and water balance • Formation and emission of Greenhouse Gases • Effects on physiological processes in soils and plants • Effects on ecosystem functioning and biodiversity • Consequences for land use and water management • Socio-economic aspects and policy analysis • Advisory and consultancy in environmental and climate policies

4. “In the context of regional weather and climate, landscape biospheric processes are as much a part of the climate system as atmospheric processes” Biosphere Atmosphere Interactions and the Regional Climate System Pavel Kabat CCB - Wageningen UR Acknowledgements: IGBP - BAHC Scientific Steering Committee GEWEX - ISLSCP International. Science Panel R. Hutjes, H. Dolman, P. Spiertz, H. ter Maat

5. CAPE + cloud activity characteristics PBL 3000 m PBL 1500 m R n = 0.87 R g 0.10 R g H = 0.3 R n LE = 0.65 R n R n = 0.87 R g H = 0.65 R n 0.10 R g LE = 0.25 R n 25 m 10 m S = 0.03 R n S = 0.07 R n Temperate Forest Boreal Forest Coupling Principles - Energy Balance Link R n = LE + H + S

6. ….excellent opportunity to integrate the important processes - physical, chemical and biological - that transport and transform material and energy across the land-atmosphere interface….

7. Land - Atmosphere Project • off-spring of BAHC, IGAC, GCTE, GAIM • full and pro-active partnership with WCRP, story of a truly complementary approach • learning from the past, capitalizing on successes of this collaboration (GEWEX-BAHC, LBA, ...) • stepping stone for future joint programmes (mainly with WCRP GEWEX)

8. Biota, Aerosols, Clouds, and Climate • Biosphere/climate feedback proposed in 1987, in which marine phytoplankton emits a volatile sulfur-containing substance (DMS) • DMS oxidized to sulfate aerosol particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) • Increased CCN ->more cloud droplets -> clouds brighter ->reduced amount of sunlight absorbed by the Earth • Earth cooling -> changing the living conditions for plankton, and thus their rate of DMS emissions

9. Biota, Aerosols, Clouds, and Climate • feedback thought to be relevant mostly to the oceans, continental regions considered always to have high levels of CCN, so that clouds would never be “CCN-starved” and any additional CCN would have little effect • recent work in the Amazon shows this assumption to be wrong: in the wet season with no detectable anthropogenic input, the balance of natural sources and sinks produces a CCN number concentration almost identical to marine values.

10. Biota, Aerosols, Clouds, and Climate • By providing most of the CCN to the natural atmosphere, the biosphere has a strong influence on cloud radiative and microphysical properties, and thereby on both climate and the hydrological cycle. • This natural regulation mechanism is now in the process of being overwhelmed by anthropogenic emissions

11. CCB Research Themes • Formation and emission of Greenhouse Gases

13. Landuse classification Emissions inventory Landuse inventory • Attributes emissions: • industrial • urban • traffic • etc Carbon flux map • Attributes agriculture: • area • volume • increment • carbon stock • carbon flux • etc... • Attributes forests: • area • volume • increment • carbon stock • carbon flux • etc... GIS based methodology

14. CCB Research Themes • Effects on physiological processes in soils and plants

15. Scenario Projection: 2000-2100 • When climate change is neglected (blue line) the coupled model produces a CO2 trajectory similar to the standard IS92a scenario as used in GCMs (black line). • When climate-carbon cycle feedbacks are included (red line) we see much higher rates of CO2 increase and climate change. • By 2100 the fully coupled model produces 970 ppmv and a global warming of 5.5K (c.f. 700 ppmv and 4K without climate-carbon cycle feedbacks).

16. CCB Research Themes • Effects on ecosystem functioning and biodiversity

17. Turbid water Clear water A stability landscape of ecosystems (source Scheffer, 2001) Climate, Water Quality & Ecosystems • Aquatic Ecosystems , sometimes are in a seemingly steady state despite human pressures (lack of early warning signals) • Gradual decline in ecosystem resilience can result in a sudden shift caused by an (climatic) event like a flood or a drought • Also climate change (T) reduces ecosystem resilience

18. CCB Research Themes • Consequences for land use and water management

19. Learning to better cope with climate variability and change

20. hydrology water resources vulnerability Internal dynamics Land-use ACCEPTABLE RISK Animal plagues Climate ‘RANDOM’ INTERNAL / EXTERNAL DISTURBANCES Human population pressure General IWRM Issues:

21. CCB Research Themes • Socio-economic aspects and policy analysis • Advisory and consultancy in environmental and climate policies

22. The South is still involved in its hydraulic mission The trajectory of industrial modernity Modernity inspired by the Enlightenment, science, capitalism and the belief that Nature could be controlled Trajectory of reflexive modernity in the North Pre-modern Industrial modernity Political Economic Hydraulic mission Green 5 4 3 2 1 Central role of politics: (water)indicators:Water use in irrigation Water use in irrigation is a relevant indicator of the hydraulic mission's indicative trajectory The hydraulic mission Green movement in the North 3rd para. 4th para. 5th paradigm 1st paradigm 2nd water management paradigm 1850 1900 1950 2000 1980 1990 Tony Allan, 2000 Reflexive modernity Source: Allan 2000

23. Measures ? IPCC I, IIRIO IPCC III Club Rome RIO+10 Pre-modern Industrial modernity Political Economic Hydraulic mission Green 2 5 3 1 4 Central role of politics: (climate) PoliticalAwarenessClimate/global change&CO2& T 1850 1900 1950 2000 1980 1990 Reflexive modernity Source: Allan 2000

24. CCB: challenges of integrated approach • Multidisciplinarity and feedbacks as important as in-depth research

25. AtmosphereCLIMATE PHYSICSGREENHOUSE GASES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES EUROPE, USA Increase radiation ECOSYSTEMFUNCTIONING • Floods/Droughts • Water Quality • Sea level rise Land Cover Change Temperaturerise • Water Scarcity • Biodiversity • Health Water tablesOceans • Sea level rise Change physico-chemicalwater parameters Precipitation & Evaporation Groundwater& River discharge SOIL PHYSICS& RESOURCES WATERRESOURCES

26. CCB: challenges of integrated approach • Synergy in socio-economic aspects and policy analysis, including environmental and climate policies

27. How? Current political barriers global change & climate issues: • International policy in relation to driversglobal change (emissions, land use, pop. Growth, etc), conventions,like CBD, UNFCCC, CCD, RAMSAR • Barriers to sustainability ofcurrent practices in IRWM • National power structures • Spatial & Regional (sectoral) political power structures • Actual measures at local level

28. CCB: a role to play…. • National: ICES KIS Klimaat • National: a Netherlands Core Centre Global Change (ism VU-IvM, CKO, ICIS, e.a. • National: VROM, LNV, EZ en V&W klimaatdimensie • National: NWO • Europees: EU 6de KP (CofE and IRPs) • Mondiaal: IGBP, WCRP, IHDP maar ook NL-climate change assistance programmes, WB-programmes, IPCC, MA, ...