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This presentation discusses the importance of peak steel intensity to Australia's mining sector and the potential impact of China's fixed asset investment on the industry. It also provides an update on Magellan Global Fund.
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Capstone Professional Development December 2010 Hamish Douglass Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager, Magellan Asset Management
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Agenda • China – Peak Steel Intensity • Inflation v deflation • Magellan Global Fund – update • Questions
Importance of Peak Steel Intensity to Australia • The mining sector represents 33 % of the ASX All Ordinaries Index • Iron Ore and Metallurgical Coal are Australia’s two largest exports: • 25% of total exports ($70 bn – 2009) • 43% of export growth past 7 years • Iron ore and coal prices have dramatically improved over the past 3 years • iron prices 3 year avg A$ 112 per tonne / A$35 per tonne 10 year avg (1998 – 2007) • Metallurgical coal prices 3 year avg A$ 232 per tonne / A$ 79 per tonne 10 year avg (1998 – 2007) • Dramatic improvement in the terms of trade over past 3 years
China – Fixed Asset Investment Facts • Fixed asset investment - 25% pa growth over the past decade • Absolute value has dramatically accelerated: • Last 2 years FAI RMB 43 tn (USD 6.43 tn) • Last 4 years FAI RMB 70 tn (USD 10.5 tn) • Prior decade FAI RMB 43 tn (1997 – 2006) • Is China fast accelerating towards “peak commodity intensity” ?
The deflationary/inflationary debate • Enormous countervailing forces at work • The deflationary debate is primarily a developed world issue • Enormous inflationary pressures in the emerging world (China, India, Russia, Brazil, etc) • Numerous developed countries with inflationary pressures (Australia, NZ, Denmark, Norway, Switzerland) • The deflationary debate is primary focused on major Northern Hemisphere economies (US, UK, France, Japan, Spain, Italy etc)
Potential sources of deflationary pressures • Persistent excess productive capacity • Prolonged period of sub-par economic growth due to: • Consumer deleveraging • Government fiscal austerity measures • Structurally high and persistent unemployment • Prolonged low interest rates • Falling house prices • Embedded expectations of deflationary pressures • Continued shift to e-commerce
Medium term sources of inflationary pressures • Rising food and energy prices • Effects of global warming • Expansion of the money supply from quantitative easing • Central bank exit strategies • Imported price inflation due to inflationary pressures in emerging markets • Increased regulatory intervention • Increased taxation
Conclusions • Deflationary pressures are non-existent in emerging markets and in economies such as Australia • Short term deflationary pressures in the US and Europe are likely to be overwhelmed by inflationary pressures in the medium term • Investors should be concerned about: • Anaemic economic growth for the foreseeable future • Rising long term bond rates • Rising inflation in the medium term • Stagflation may be a more realistic risk than deflation in the medium term
Increase in your Purchasing Power Source: Evans & Partners 2010
China – Fixed asset growth v retail sales growth (2000 – 2010)
Urbanising populations in emerging markets will drive long term economic growth Urban Population Growth Forecasts (million) Source: United Nations, Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs
+354 China Urbanisation (million) Source: McKinsey 2010
Yum! Operating Profit Contribution 2010 YTD 2015 F* *Magellan Forecasts
Yum! China – Robust Development Opportunity Assume ½ of China Population* is Middle Class or above by 2030 McDonald’s current penetration in the U.S. is ~40 Per Million Tim Horton’s current penetration in Canada is ~60 Per Million *Assumes China population is 1.5B in 2030 Source: Yum! Brands
Source: Yum! Brands Rapid Expansion Year After Year
Yum! China Delivered 2x Asset Turnover for the last 4 consecutive years Yum! China – Industry Leading Return on Assets Source: Yum! Brands and 2009 Company Segment Reporting from Company 10-K
KFC – Strong Unit Economics Strong Return – Sales Are 2X Investment Source: Yum! Brands
Magellan Global Equities Portfolio Construction as at 30 November 2010 Source: Magellan Asset Management Ltd
Magellan Global Fund Top 10 as at 30 November 2010
Portfolio strategy Always focus on quality and minimising the risk of permanent capital loss • Invest into extremely high quality “cash cows” with low risk exposure to consumer growth in the developing world • Invest into lowest cost, market leading, non-discretionary retailers • Invest into businesses that exhibit powerful “network economics”