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Policy Option Scenario Design for Pollutant Reduction: Key Elements and Implementation Strategies

This document discusses key elements for designing policy option scenarios to reduce pollutants, focusing on simultaneous examination of all key pollutants/effects, cost-effective solutions, and output indicators for environmental and health impacts. It emphasizes the importance of achieving optimal reductions and exploring uncertainties in scenario design. Transparency and stakeholder involvement are critical for successful implementation.

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Policy Option Scenario Design for Pollutant Reduction: Key Elements and Implementation Strategies

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  1. TS&PA MeetingJune 16, 2004 UNICE views on Policy Option Scenario Design

  2. Key elements for Scenario Design • All key pollutants/effects must be examined simultaneously: • IAM optimisation potential to be exploited fully • Cost vs. reduced impact relationship of scenarios suite must be provided for the EU and for each MS • Scenario design should be based on most cost-effective solution for a given environmental aim: • Equal cost per unit improvement in meeting health/environmental target • Not equal cost per unit emission reduction (except in specific cases such as emission controls for vehicles emissions)

  3. Scenario key outputs • For each Member State: • Cost • Suitable indicator of resulting state (environment/health) • Individual measures picked by RAINS to enble comparison with Commission ‘Draft Measures Paper’

  4. Scenario categories • Series of stepwise gap closure scenarios towards ‘non-significant effect’ ultimate goal: • Scenarios to be run for 2010, 2015, 2020 • Cost curves vs. gap closure over time for each MS • Sensitivity scenarios to explore upper and lower boundaries of uncertainties, in particular: • Dose-response curve slopes • Potential thresholds of effects • Key modelling uncertainties

  5. Other important points • Achievability and feasibility should also be fundamental considerations • Transparency calls for availability of detailed results of scenario analysis to Stakeholders

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