1 / 23

What drives and what hinders energetic building refurbishments in Germany?

What drives and what hinders energetic building refurbishments in Germany?. Dr. Ralph Henger 20th Annual ERES Conference, Vienna | Austria, 3-6 July 2013 Green Buildings & Environmental Policies , Parallel Session C-24 July 4, 2013, 13:30–15:00, Room 5. Content. Background.

jontae
Download Presentation

What drives and what hinders energetic building refurbishments in Germany?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. What drives and what hinders energetic building refurbishments in Germany? Dr. Ralph Henger 20th Annual ERES Conference, Vienna | Austria, 3-6 July 2013 Green Buildings & Environmental Policies, Parallel Session C-24 July 4, 2013, 13:30–15:00, Room 5

  2. Content • Background • Drivers and constrains • Profitability of energetic building refurbishments • Conclusion Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

  3. Background • Germany’s climate policy • CO2 reduction of 40 % by 2020 and 80% by 2050 (compared to 1990) • By 2020: achieve 35 % share of renewables (electricity) • The building sector accounts for about 40% of Germany’s final energy consumption and about one third of CO2 emissions. • Energy Concept 2050: Sectorial (ambitious) targets for the building sector • By 2020: minus 20 % of Final Energy Consumption • By 2050: minus 80 % of Primary Energy Consumption (“near-zero-carbon building stock”) • Current refurbishment rate of 1 % p.a. is too low to reach the targets, doubling to 2 % is necessary Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

  4. Germany’s building stockTwo third was built before 1978 (1st Thermal Insulation Ordinance) Homes Buildings Source: IWU Gebäudetypologie 2011 Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

  5. Residential energy consumption for heating per household, depending on age and condition of the buildings • Average consumption: • Single-unit house: 172 kWh/m²a • Multi-unit house (< 12 units): 145 kWh/m²a • Much higher consumption in building stock built before 1978 indicates high energy saving potential (better insulation and heating efficiency) fully renovated partially renovated not renovated Source: ARGE (Arbeitsgemeinschaft für zeitgemäßes Bauen e.V.) 2011 Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

  6. Huge potential for saving energy and CO2Residential building stock (built until 2001): 34,4 Mio. Source: IW Cologne 2012 based on ARGE (Arbeitsgemeinschaft für zeitgemäßes Bauen e.V.) 2011 Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

  7. Final Energy ConsumptionTarget 2020: minus 20% Source: IW Cologne 2012 Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

  8. Primary Energy ConsumptionTarget 2050: minus 80% Source: IW Cologne 2012 Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

  9. Refurbishment measuresEnergetic building refurbishment rate (in % of building stock to 2004) Source: IW Cologne 2012 based on Datenbasis Gebäudebestand (IWU / BEI 2010) Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

  10. Green Investments are taking place • Investments shifting from construction to renovation • Investments 2011: € 307 Billion into the building sector, thereof €183 Billion into the stock (60%) (German Building Ministry, 2012) • Green renovations are becoming more and more popular • Investments 2011: €53 Billion (29% of all building stock investments) are energetic refurbishments, thereof €38 Billion into residential buildings (German Building Ministry, 2012) • High investments for reaching a “nearly-climate-neutral building stock” • Overall: €838 Billion by 2050 • New buildings: €331 Billion by 2050 • Maintenance of the building stock: €270 Billion by 2050 • Energy efficiency: €237 Billion by 2050 (for comparison: Energy Savings: €361 Billion!) Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

  11. Content • Background • Drivers and constraints • Profitability of energetic building refurbishments • Conclusion Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

  12. Influencing Factors • Technical • Age and condition of the building • Building Type (one vs. multi-unit buildings) • Potential operational energy saving Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5 • (Socio-)Economic • Energy Prices • Pay-back time / Interest Rates • Property value or rent • Location • Individual • Owner/ Occupant characteristics (income, age, household size, health) • Owner/ Occupant motives, awareness and preferences • Regulatory • Building codes and standards • Financial incentives (subsidies, tax reductions) • Landlord-Tenant Law • Information / Transparency (e.g. Energy certificates)

  13. Landlord / Tenant Dilemma • Comparison of rent increases and returns Rent increase Initial returns Source: 1,301 objects in the kfw “Energy-efficient refurbishment” program (Henger and Voigtländer 2011) Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

  14. More transparency: Energy certificates • Rational decisions need transparency • 2008: Energy certificates • Required whenever buildings (residential, non-residential) are sold or rented • Information on energy consumption / demand expressed in terms (kWh/m2/yr) • Very low acceptance by homeowners and realtors • EnEV 2014: improvements • Stricter controls (randomly) • Obligation to display energy certificates at public buildings Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

  15. Content • Background • Drivers and constrains • Profitability of energetic building refurbishments • Conclusion Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

  16. How much energy savings can be realized?Results from some selected case-study calculations kWh/m²a Source: IW Cologne 2012 Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

  17. Total costs vs. Energy efficiency costsResults from some selected case-study calculations kWh/m²a Source: IW Cologne 2012 Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

  18. Does an energetic refurbishment pays off?Results from some selected case-study calculations EUR/m²a Source: IW Cologne 2012 Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

  19. How important are subsidies (of the kfw)?Results from some selected case-study calculations EUR/m²a Source: IW Cologne 2012 Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

  20. Stylized facts • Based on 22 case-study calculations (Henger and Voigtländer 2012) • Total costs differ significantly across buildings and measures • However: Total costs can never be paid off with energy savings • Energetic refurbishments should not be done outside the “renovation cycle” of a building • “Energy efficiency” costs lie around 33–50% below total costs • Energy efficiency costs can be paid off in one-thirdof the case-study calculations • … with kfw subsidies in two-third of the case-study calculations • Energetic refurbishments are financially rewarded withinthe “renovation cycle” if… • Homes are in a bad condition, i.e. energy consumption is high • Government / kfw subsidies can be claimed • Investment costs can be shifted to tenants (by increasing rents) Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

  21. Content • Background • Drivers and constrains • Profitability of energetic building refurbishments • Conclusion Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

  22. Conclusion • Main drivers: old building stock, kfw subsidies, homeowners’ motivation • Main barriers: long pay-back periods, landlord / tenant dilemma, transparency • Targets for a zero-carbon building stock by 2050 seems to be too ambitious • Government has to develop a long-ranging and socially balanced strategy with an effective subsidy and monitoring scheme Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

  23. Thank you for your attention! • Dr. Ralph Henger • Cologne Institute for Economic Research, Real Estate Economics • +49 221 4981-744 • henger@iwkoeln.de •  www.immobilienoekonomik.de

More Related