Technology Readiness of Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) – Challenges for the Automotive Industry

1. International Automotive Congress 2017 Image source: BMW Image source: google Shanghai, November 28, 2017 Dipl.-Wirt.-Ing. Christian Burkard ForschungsgesellschaftKraftfahrwesenmbH Aachen Technology Readiness of Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) –Challenges for the Automotive Industry

2. Agenda • Introduction and Motivation • Status-quo and development activities in the field of CAVs • Requirements and key technologies for CAVs • Summary - Challenges and opportunities for automotive players

3. Introduction and MotivationfkaForschungsgesellschaftKraftfahrwesenmbH Aachen • Company overview: • Departments: • Strategy & Consulting • Chassis • Vehicle Concepts • Body • Founded in 1981 as a spin-off from theInstitute for Automotive Engineering (ika) ofRWTH Aachen University • Together with co-operation partner ika access to a total staff of approx. 470 employees • Automotive customers (OEM and suppliers) from Europe, USA and Asia • Thermal Management • Drivetrain • Electrics /Electronics • Acoustics • Driver Experience & Performance • Driver Assistance 2015Foundation of fkaSilicon Valley 1923Institute for Automotive Engineering and Combustion Engines 1981Foundation of fka 1972Institute of AutomotiveEngineering 1902Foundation of the chair for Automotive Engineering

4. Introduction and MotivationOverview of worldwide activities in the field of CAVs • Google, California • Pathfinder, UK • Volvo, Sweden • Kia, Nevada • Volvo, Australia • Hyundai, S. Korea • Nissan, Japan • Changan, China • Baidu, China • Auto Rider, Singap. • Toyota, Japan • UBER, Pittsburgh • Postbus, Switzerl. • Daimler, Netherl. • Audi, Germany • PSA, France

5. Introduction and MotivationInfluencing factors and drivers for CAVs • Drivers fortheintroductionof AVs • Overviewofmajorinfluences on AutomatedVehicles • Laws: Traffic law, law on type approval, liability law, driving licence regulation, data protection law • International treaties: Vienna / Geneva Convention • Standards: Technical standards, vehicle crash standards, consumer protection standards • Two categories are decisive for a future market introduction of AVs: Technology and market readiness • 1 • Policy & legislation • Technology development and availability of technologies • Validation and testing of automated vehicle functions • Availability of complementary technologies: digital maps, vehicle connectivity, HMI • Technology readiness • Development, testing, production and marketing of Automated Vehicles • Buildup of Know-how and competencies • Technology • Willingness to use: Driver integration, automation vs. driving pleasure, safety and privacy concerns • Willingness to pay • Customer requirements • Social acceptance • 2 • Customer & society • New business models: self-driving taxis, logistics • Strategic partnerships: Automobile and IT industry • Market development • Data mining and usage:Monetisationofdata • Market readiness • Economy • Customer demand for Automated Vehicles • Market characteristics (e.g. market size) • Legislative compatibility • Economy

6. Introduction and MotivationInfluencing factors and drivers for CAVs • Drivers fortheintroductionof AVs • Overviewofmajorinfluences on AutomatedVehicles • Laws: Traffic law, law on type approval, liability law, driving licence regulation, data protection law • International treaties: Vienna / Geneva Convention • Standards: Technical standards, vehicle crash standards, consumer protection standards • Two categories are decisive for a future market introduction of AVs: Technology and market readiness • 1 • Policy & legislation • Technology development and availability of technologies • Validation and testing of automated vehicle functions • Availability of complementary technologies: digital maps, vehicle connectivity, HMI • Technology readiness • Development, testing, production and marketing of Automated Vehicles • Buildup of Know-how and competencies • Technology • Willingness to use: Driver integration, automation vs. driving pleasure, safety and privacy concerns • Willingness to pay • Customer requirements • Social acceptance • 2 • Customer & society • New business models: self-driving taxis, logistics • Strategic partnerships: Automobile and IT industry • Market development • Data mining and usage:Monetisationofdata • Market readiness • Economy • Customer demand for Automated Vehicles • Market characteristics (e.g. market size) • Legislative compatibility • Economy

7. Introduction and MotivationDimensions of Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) Levels of Connectivity and Automation Human System L e v e l o f A u t o m a t i o n … perfectDriver Assistance by precise Information … Level 3 Platooningelectronic coupling of trucks „swarm-driving“ AutomatedValetParking e.g. in car parks Robust & secureconnectivity e.g. traffic information, eCall e.g.radio baseddanger warning … High-definition maps(precision and timeliness) … state-of-the-artconnectivity L e v e l o f C o n n e c t i v i t y „Classic Car“ ACC Traffic Jam Assistance autonomoushighlyautomateddriving … … noconnectivity Fullyautomated Driverless Highly automated Partially automated Driver Only Assisted Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5

8. Agenda • Introduction and Motivation • Status-quo and development activities in the field of CAVs • Requirements and key technologies for CAVs • Summary - Challenges and opportunities for automotive players

9. Status-quo and development activities in the field of CAVsStatus-quo – AvailabilityofADAS functions in productionvehicles ADAS Function ACC Stop & Go + LKA 44 % 78 % 78 % 75 % 80 % 14 % 22 % 56 % 11 % AccidentAvoidance(PedestrianDetection) 44 % 78 % 78 % 75 % 20 % 14 % - 56 % - AcccidentAvoidance(Steeringintervention) - 33 % - - - - - - - Turn Assistance - 56 % - - - - - - - Automated Park Pilot 44 % 78 % - 25 % - - - 11 % 11 % Remote Parking 11 % 44 % - - - - - - - Traffic Jam Assistant 33 % 78 % - 50 % - - - - - Emergency Stop Pilot - 44 % - - - - - - - X % = Percentageofavailabilityacross all vehiclesegments • High availability only for ACC Stop & Go in combination with Lane Keeping Assistant and Accident Avoidance Functions • Safety relevant functions are expected to be pushed by legislation or consumer standards (e.g. Euro / US NCAP) • With an increasing availability of ADAS functions across vehicle segments and OEMs, the possibility for differentiation decreases

10. Status-quo and development activities in the field of CAVsOverviewofpublictestfieldsandtestingactivities AstaZero (2014) • Dedicated proving ground • Area: 200 ha • Funding: EU Regional Development Fund, regional public funds • Owner: SP Technical Research Institute of Sweden and Chalmers University of Technology Hwasung K-City (2018) Michigan MCity (2015) MichiganAmerican Center for Mobility (ACM) (2017) Shanghai International Automobile City (2016) JARI Test Site (2017) • Dedicated proving ground • Area: 36 ha • Funds: $ 10 million • Owner: Korea Automobile Testing & Research Institute (KATRI) • Dedicated proving ground • Area: 10 ha • Funds: $ 10 million • Funding: Michigan Department of Transportation, University of Michigan UK testingfields (2016) • Dedicated proving ground • Dedicated proving ground • Area: 200 ha • Funds: $ 55 million • Dedicated proving ground • Public testfield • Regions: Greenwich, Coventry/Milton Keynes, London, Bristol • Funds: £ 19 million • Funding: UK Department for Transport Digital testfield A9 (2016) • Motorway A9 (public) • Funds: € 25 million • Funding: Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure Test fields Fleet testing

11. Status-quo and development activities in the field of CAVsConsolidatedroadmapofAutomatedDrivingfunctions Consolidated roadmap for the topic “Automated Driving“ • As part of a meta-analysis, different external estimations for market entry and penetration of the different functions and systems of automated driving were merged. The external assessment was additionally completed by a fka expert estimation. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Roadmap Remote Parking [Level 2] Driverless Valet Parking [Level 4] Parking Assistance[Level 2] Chauffeur [Level 3] Traffic Jam Chauffeur [Level 3] Pilot [Level 4] Highway Intersection Assistance [Level 2] Local Robot Taxi [Level 4] Urban Robot Taxi [Level 5] Inner City Driverless Truck/ Bus/ Taxi [Level 5] All situations Driverless Private Car [Level 5]

12. Agenda • Introduction and Motivation • Status-quo and development activities in the field of CAVs • Requirements and key technologies for CAVs • Summary - Challenges and opportunities for automotive players

13. Requirements and key technologies for CAVsKey technologyfieldsfor CAVs • Environment perception: • Increase of sensors • Integration of new sensors • Vehicle Intelligence: Sensor fusion, environment modeling, planning and decision algorithms • HMI design: • Display of system state (for drivers and other road users) • Design of driving task take over by the driver • Design of vehicle control elements • Electrics/Electronics: • New E/E architectures • Increase of functional safety • New redundancy concepts • Fail-safe functions • New operation & display concepts: • Increase of the number and size of displays • Augmented Reality concepts • New operation concepts (e.g. new steering modes) • Driver monitoring: • Continuous driver monitoring (e.g. interior cameras, sensors) • Driver state estimation • Driver performance estimation • New vehicle & interior concepts: • New urban vehicle concepts (e.g. Google car) • New interior design (e.g. usage of the vehicle as a second working or living space, info- & entertainment)

14. Requirements and key technologies for CAVsKey technologyfieldsforCAVs • Environment perception: • Increase of sensors • Integration of new sensors • Vehicle Intelligence: Sensor fusion, environment modeling, planning and decision algorithms • HMI design: • Display of system state (for drivers and other road users) • Design of driving task take over by the driver • Design of vehicle control elements • Electrics/Electronics: • New E/E architectures • Increase of functional safety • New redundancy concepts • Fail-safe functions • New operation & display concepts: • Increase of the number and size of displays • Augmented Reality concepts • New operation concepts (e.g. new steering modes) • Driver monitoring: • Continuous driver monitoring (e.g. interior cameras, sensors) • Driver state estimation • Driver performance estimation • New vehicle & interior concepts: • New urban vehicle concepts (e.g. Google car) • New interior design (e.g. usage of the vehicle as a second working or living space, info- & entertainment)

15. Requirements and key technologies for CAVsIdentification of requirements for future functions (Exemplary) Traffic Jam Assistance Traffic Jam Chauffeur Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 • Supports the driver at monotonous driving in traffic jams on motorways or motorway similar roads at speeds up to 60 km/h. • System can be activated, if traffic jam scenario exists. • The system follows the leading vehicle in front in a safe distance and keeps the vehicle in the center of the lane. • The driver has to monitor the system and the environment constantly and has to intervene if required. • Major difference to Traffic Jam Assistance: allows the driver to turn away his attention from his driving task in the specific scenario of a traffic jam on a motorway with the driver being the ultimate fallback level. • The driver must be in the position to resume control again with an increased lead time if a take-over request from the system occurs. • At least one camera • Advanced: Radar and stereo camera • Reliable environment perception: • Multi-Camera system, Radar and/or Laser Scanner Sensors • Lane centering or front vehicle following • [Traffic Jam Assistance] + … • More advanced environment perception algorithms Algorithms • System Active Sign, Hands-On Sign • [Traffic Jam Assistance] + Take-over request indication • Driver monitoring (e.g. sleeping driver must be detected) HMI ECU • Function ECU uses input of sensor ECUs • Reliable system and advanced environment perception: • Redundancy, more computing power, sensor fusion

16. Requirements and key technologies for CAVsOverview of potential sensor sets for future functions • Cameras • Mono Camera Single image sensor • Stereo Camera Two identical image sensors with one processing unit • Multifocal CameraThree image sensors with at least one processing unit • Surround ViewFour identical image sensors with extreme wide angle • Ultrasonic SensorsDistance measurement with high frequency sound waves • Laser based Sensors • LidarDistance is measured by infrared laser • Multi line laser scannerMultiple laser lines • 360° rotating laser scannerMany lasers emitting light inchanging direction by rotating housing • Radar sensors Measurement of distance and relative velocity with electromagnetic waves Image Source: Audi

17. Requirements and key technologies for CAVsSummary of sensor requirements for future functions Required sensors for front application depending on automation level • SOA: Sensors for covering the area in front of the vehicle 360° perception requires additional sensors. • Research and industry projects show that Level 4/5 systems require third sensor type as e.g. laser scanner. • Open issues for environment perception: • Unstructured environments (Urban area, construction site) • Obstacles on the road • Determination of road condition • Reliable perception independent of weather and environment conditions • Self estimation of sensor capabilities Multi focal camera + Radar + Laser scanner Stereo camera + Radar + Laser scanner (+ wide angle camera) Multi focal camera + Radar + Laser scanner Stereo camera + Radar (+ wide angle camera) Multi focal camera + Radar Mono camera + Radar Sensors Stereo camera Multi focal camera Mono camera Sensor redundancy required SOA: Radar Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Conclusion • SOA: Perception of single objects (vehicles, pedestrians) and distances/velocities to obstacles, typically radar and camera applied in vehicle front • Future: Full scene understanding for 360° surrounding of vehicle, required for automated driving (SAE Level 3-5)Multiple sensors around the vehicle, sensors using different measurement principle. Sensor fusion.

18. Requirements and key technologies for CAVsOverview of laser-based sensors Lidar Multi linelaserscanner Solid State Lidar 360° rotatinglaserscanner Has a semiconductor-basedgain medium thatis solid andcontains no moving or vibrating parts Description Infrared laser light is illuminated and distance is measured by time-of-flight principle For each line, one laser is emitting light in changing directions, changed by a moving mirror Many lasers emitting light in changing direction by rotating housing and mirrors Technical Specs Range Horizontal FOV Vertical FOV Rotating Speed 20 m 27° 12° 150 m 145° (Resolution of 0.25°) 3,2° (4 Layers of 0.8° each) 100 m 360° (Resolution of0.1°) 30° (16 Layersof 2° each) 5-20 Hz 150 m 120° 10° Manufacturer/ Supplier ¥ ¥ ¥ (~ 500 $) ¥¥ ¥ (~ 8,000 $) ¥ (< 250 $) Cost Already in series production; cheap; short detection range Long range of detection; detects environment in 3D 360° horizontal view; contains rotating parts; expensive technology Low costs due to no rotating parts; state of research Assessment/ Evaluation

19. Requirements and key technologies for CAVsRequirements regarding driver monitoring Status-quo Future requirements • Driver must monitor the driving task and the driving environ-mentat all times and is prepared to take-over full control immediately if necessary • Requirement regarding driver monitoring:Is the driver still in the control loop and able to intervene? • Required technologies: • Driver does not needtomonitorat all timesorduringdefinedusecase. Driver must beabletoresumecontrolifrequestedorwhensystemlimitsarereached. • Requirements regarding driver monitoring:Is the driver in the right state in order to take-over the driving task? • Is the driver under- or overstimulated? • Driver state estimation • Driver performance estimation • Required technologies: Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Eye tracking(eyegaze, lidmovement) Driver‘scondition/healthmonitoring(e.g. heart rate) Driver‘spositionmonitoring(e.g. cameras) Capacitivesensorsin steeringwheel /Torquemeasuring Driver behaviour(e.g. steeringwheelmovement) Directdrivermonitoring(infrareddetectors)

20. Requirements and key technologies for CAVsDesign of take-over situations (Level 3 functions) Investigation of take-over times in level 3 Take-over times: • Level 3 plays a special role regarding the driver-vehicle-interaction, because the driver can temporarily step out of the driver-vehicle control loop in specific applications and can perform secondary tasks. • For all other use-cases, a take-over of the driving task must be designed • The take-over is subdivided into four • phases (Orientation, preparedness for action,execution of actions, vehicle stabilization). • Actual research indicate an average needed time period of 2,2-5,0s for the first three phases. • For the fourth phase an additional time period of 5 to 10 s is reported. • The times are dependant on a multitude of factors (e.g. type of the secondary task, complexity of the driving task, type and concept of the feedback). • The factors „preceding period of highly automated ride“ and „tiredness of the driver“ has not yet been examined. With ika-involvement this is part of the currently performed research project FAT. A critical point is that the range of vehicle sensors today can not cover this prediction horizon. Therefore a system of classification level 3 should actually be technically based on a system of classification level 4.

21. Requirements and key technologies for CAVsRequirements regarding ECUs Single function ECU Integrated ECU Vehiclecomputer CentralizedECU Description • Traditional approach:Each ADAS function has itsown ECU • Suppliers often provide combination of sensors, ECU and software • Merging of ECUs, integration of different ADAS functions into one ECU • Realization of Centralized Domain Control Units • Integration of key ADAS / AD functions into one single ECU • Fusion of all environment sensor signals and external data, decoupling of HW and SW • Fusion of all ECUs in on centralized and powerful ECU • Combination of multicore CPUs and GPUs for artificial intelligence and deep learning Functions /Examples Radar-based Adaptive Cruise Control and Emergency Brake Assist Integration of safety-relevant ADAS functions into one ECU Audi zFAS: ADAS functions,Automated Parking, L3-Traffic jam assistance nVidia Drive PX Pegasus: Enablesdetectionofobjectsoverdeepneuralnetworks Series production(since 1990s) Series production(since 2010) Series production(since 2017) Development (already applied in test vehicles) Status • Key challenges: Higher performance & integration level, reduction of system costs, increase of reliability over lifetime • Safety and Security: Realization of redundancy for safety-critical functions, end-to-end security, hardware virtualization • Updateability: Possibility to add new functions during vehicle production cycle or during vehicle lifecycle (e.g. OTA-updates) • OEM focus: Sensor fusion and environment model will become core competence of OEMs, definition of semiconductor requirements

22. Agenda • Introduction and Motivation • Status-quo and development activities in the field of CAVs • Requirements and key technologies for CAVs • Summary - Challenges and opportunities for automotive players

23. Summary – Challenges and opportunities for automotive players Transformation of ecosystems Traditional industrystructure: New ecosystem: End-customer, dealership,aftersales Supplier OEM After-sales Systemintegra-tor OEM USAGE OWNING Mobility-as-a-Service Complexsystems 1 st tier supplier SHARING Platformoperator Contractmanu-facturer Modules,Sub-systems 2 nd tiersupplier IT company Mobilityserviceprovider Components 3 rd tiersupplier • Traditional, product-focussedindustrystructure • Value networkwith a strong hierarchicalstructure,controlledby OEM as a focalcompany • Heterarchicalvaluenetworkswithout strong dominanceofsingleactors, changedrolemodelsandrelationshipsbetweenactors • Multiple pointsofcontactwith end-customers due tofocus on services

24. Summary – Challenges and opportunities for automotive playersOutlook – Possibledevelopmentpathsfor CAVs • Implications • Alternative development paths for CAVs • Besides an evolutionary development path, CAVs could also follow an revolutionary path – and possibly threaten established automotive players: • Emergence of new key players, value networks and ecosystems • Coverage of new customer require-ments: basic and low-cost mobility with high flexibility of usage • Creation of a new market: Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) instead of vehicle ownership • Implementation of new business mo-dels: e.g. driverless taxis, driverless inner-city logistics • The established automotive players are predominantly following an evolutionary development approach towards CAVs • However, driverless vehicles have the potential for disruptive innovation by addressing completely new needs and markets • Automotive players should continuously monitor the activities of new players and claim their position within the ecosystem

25. Summary – Challenges and opportunities for automotive playersNew business opportunities for the automotive industry Challenges and opportunities for OEM Challenges and opportunities for suppliers Challenges and opportunities for new entrants • OEM-internal development of competencies in the field of software, algorithms, machine learning etc. • OEM have to decide upon vertical integration (make-or-buy) and market-entry strategies for CAVs • Potential to realize new business models and exploit new profit pools (mobility-related services) • Emergence of a new competitive landscape with strong players (financial and know-how) • Potential to extend value chain focus with new value chain activities (e.g. SW/HW development) • Redefinition of collaboration model with OEM based on definition of key competencies • Potential to acquire new customers within new entrants without automotive background • Potential to disrupt existing mobility offers and to unlock significant market volume • Leverage existing know-how in the fields of software and hardware development • Lack of competencies regarding “traditional” automotive components and systems • Validation and development process of IT industry only partly applicable for CAV development

26. Dipl.-Wirt.-Ing. Christian Burkard +49 241 8861 116+49 163 855 6303 burkard@fka.de