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Precipitation maxima temporal and spacial distributions in China during 1961-2013

This study examines the temporal and spatial distributions of extreme precipitation events in China from 1961 to 2013. It explores the reasons behind the intensity of these events and their predictability. The research provides valuable insights into extreme weather patterns and their implications.

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Precipitation maxima temporal and spacial distributions in China during 1961-2013

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  1. Precipitation maxima temporal and spacial distributions in China during 1961-2013 Jun Sun Fuqing Zhang

  2. Extreme precipitation events(EPE) • climatology • Why is it so extreme? • Predictability?

  3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_the_United_States

  4. RUSS S. SCHUMACHER(2006) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology

  5. Beijing torential rain in 2012 338mm New record stations 364mm National weather station 1dayrainfall Ending at 00UTC 07/22/2012

  6. Sichuan basin torential rain in 2013 1107mm 4dayaccumulated rainfall Ending at 00UTC 07/11/2013

  7. Data 1 Jul 1961 to 1 Jul 2013

  8. There are totall 2056 stations from 1961-2013

  9. “extreme weather event” • An extreme weather event is an event that is rare at a particular place and time of year. Definitions of rare vary, but an extreme weather event would normally be as rare as or rarer than the 10th or 90th percentile of the observed probability density function. By definition, the characteristics of what is called extreme weather may vary from place to place in an absolute sense. • When a pattern of extreme weather persists for some time, such as a season, it may be classed as an extreme climate event, especially if it yields an average or total that is itself extreme (e.g., drought or heavy rainfall over a season). IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

  10. How to distinguish precipitation extreme • Threshold • N-th percentile • Frequency(Return peroid)

  11. >200mm days Precipitation days greater than 200mm during 1961-2013

  12. Value 99th percentile mm Days greater than the value days

  13. The top 10th value mm only 10 value ≥ this value once per 5 years for all stations

  14. preliminary statistic analysis • The daily precipitation maximum spatial and temporal

  15. Number of stations years Station Numbers reached precipitation maximum at each year

  16. Areal distribution of 1,2,3,5,10-days accumulated precipitation maximum during 1961-2013 755mm 960mm 1137mm 1494mm 1358mm

  17. Spring Summer 755mm 641mm 188mm 615mm autumn Winter Areal distribution of 1-day accumulated precipitation maximum by season

  18. days Stations distribution of daily precipitation maximum by month during 1961-2013

  19. summary • The top 10th value is more reasonable for EPE; • There is a slowly increasing trend in the station numbers occurring precipitation maxima during 1961-2013; • The stations occurring precipitation maxima spread northward as the monsoon push northward.

  20. The next • Climatological analysis(including 1h,3h,6h,12h precipitation) • Selection and Classification of extreme precipitation event • Synoptic concept model and diagnostic method

  21. Extreme precipitation events are • rare in same place, but may be frequent at different places. • deadly killers • forecasting challenges

  22. Thank you for your attention!

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