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RTEP01 (print version)

RTEP01 (print version). Presentations to TEAC April 26, 2001 ISO New England. Today’s TEAC Agenda. Introductions Organizational Items RTEP01 Interchange Assumptions Preliminary Regional Resource Adequacy Results IREMM Overview including Fuel F/C SCED Overview TPC Update

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RTEP01 (print version)

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  1. RTEP01 (print version) • Presentations to TEAC • April 26, 2001 • ISO New England

  2. Today’s TEAC Agenda • Introductions • Organizational Items • RTEP01 Interchange Assumptions • Preliminary Regional Resource Adequacy Results • IREMM Overview including Fuel F/C • SCED Overview • TPC Update • Ongoing Local Area Studies • Other Business

  3. RTEP Information • ISO Web Site • http://www.iso-ne.com/Transmission/Regional_Transmission_Expansion_Plan/ • Announcements • Meeting Materials • Minutes

  4. RTEP Information • Member Issues • Presentation & discussion at meetings • Formal issue process • teac_matters@iso-ne.com • Confidentiality - Source • Confirmation • Inclusion in RTEP Report • Issues Raised • Response

  5. NEXT TEAC MEETING Friday June 8, 2001 Springfield MA

  6. ISO New England will host a half-day training seminar on the General Electric (GE) MAPS™ model. The GE MAPS model will be used in pre-paring the 2002 Regional Transmission Expansion Plan. The model captures hour-by-hour market dynamics while simulating the transmission constraints on the power system.

  7. The seminar will provide a broad overview of the workings of the MAPS model, including: · Load Modeling · Hourly and Pondage Resources · Thermal Unit Commitment and Dispatch · Operating Reserves · Energy Storage · Transmission Modeling · Input and Output Files · Report Analyzer

  8. The seminar is particularly well suited for the Transmission Expansion Advisory Committee (TEAC) which provides input to ISO New England in the development of expansion plans. The seminar is scheduled for May 9, 2001, from 9:00 a.m. until noon at the Springfield Sheraton and is free of charge. However, because seating is very limited, on-line pre-registration is required on the ISO-NE web site under Seminars and Training. GE MAPS Seminar

  9. RTEP01 Interchange Assumptions • Peter Wong • Mgr. Power Supply & Reliability • ISO-NE

  10. At the last TEAC meeting, it was noted that assumptions relating to regional power purchases and sales are issues to be addressed. Today, we are presenting some basic regional power purchase assumptions that will be used in our RTEP study for your comment. Interchange Assumptions

  11. NEPOOL has interconnections with three neighboring areas, namely: Quebec New Brunswick New York Interchange Assumptions

  12. Two Transmission Lines 2,000 MW HQ Phase II (+/- 450 kV HVdc tie) 225 MW 115 kV AC tie with back to back AC/DC Converter station at Highgate Interconnections with Quebec

  13. HQ Phase II Deliveries 2002 - 2006 Assume a 1,500 MW delivery rate Assume a 50% load factor during June through Aug on weekdays (16 hr/day). Assume a 33% load factor during April, May, September and October on weekdays (12 hr/day). Interchange with Hydro-Quebec

  14. Other HQ Deliveries: Highgate, Vermont Block Load, via Chateauguay Assume a 66% load factor during November through March on weekdays (16hr/day). Assume a 40% load factor during April through October on weekdays (12 hr/day). Interchange with Hydro-Quebec

  15. New England has a 700 MW (345 kV) tie with NB Interconnection with New Brunswick

  16. New Brunswick delivery into NEPOOL through the 700 MW tie. Assume a 60% load factor during June through August (16 hr/day). Assume a 33% load factor during April, May, September, October and November (12 hr/day). Interchange with New Brunswick

  17. There are 8 ties with New York. 2 - 345 kV, 1 - 230 kV, 4- 115kV, 1- 69 kV. Assumed summer/winter transfer capability = 1,400/1,700 MW Interconnections with New York

  18. Based on the latest NYISO capacity projections, It is likely that NEPOOL Participants could be selling power to New York in the next few years. ISO has no export assumptions to NY at the moment. We need to review some sub-area reliability and congestion forecasting results and decide how to model and stress the system. Interchange with New York

  19. RTEP01 Preliminary Regional Resource Adequacy Assessment Results Edward Tsikirayi Senior Engineer Power Supply & Reliability ISO-NE

  20. NB BHE ME S-ME HQ VT NH BOSTON CMA/NEMA W-MA NY RI SEMA 336 SWCT CT NOR NB - NE Phase II Orrington South Highgate Surowiec South ME - NH East - West Boston North - South NY - NE SEMA/RI Connecticut SEMA CSC South WestCT Norwalk - Stamford

  21. Unit Addition Assumptions

  22. Unit Addition Assumptions

  23. Regional Resource Adequacy Assessment based on meeting the 1 Day in 10 Years Loss of Load Expectation criterion (disconnection of firm customers). Assessment being conducted (2002 - 2006): New England assessment without reflecting transmission constraint (1 bus model) New England assessment reflecting transmission constraints (multi-area model) Regional Resource Adequacy Assessment Overview

  24. New England assessment without reflecting transmission constraints. Use Westinghouse Capacity Model (same model used to establish NEPOOL Objective Capability) To bench mark system reliability using a methodology familiar to NEPOOL To bench mark results of a multi-area program Regional Resource Adequacy Assessment Overview

  25. New England assessment reflecting transmission constraints. Use GE MARS program with capability to reflect simultaneous transmission interface limits and capable of modeling up to 30 sub-areas. ISO-NE will model 13 sub-areas. To identify sub-area reliability To identify impact of modeling transmission effects on NEPOOL system reliability Regional Resource Adequacy Assessment Overview

  26. Without reflecting transmission constraints, NEPOOL meets the reliability criterion through 2006 (Single Area Model) Preliminary Results Summary

  27. Cases Simulated • All Units In: “Sithe Mystic Exp. and Mystic 4,5,6 running” • Sithe Mystic Exp. In: “Sithe Mystic Expansion running and Mystic 4,5,6 off” • Sithe Mystic Exp. Out: “Mystic 4,5,6 running and Sithe Mystic Expansion Off” M8 345 kV M9 Mystic 4,5,6 115 kV

  28. Preliminary Results Summary • When reflecting transmission constraints (Multi-Area Model) study results indicate that NEPOOL would meet the one day in 10 year LOLE as calculated by MARS • Through 2006 for “All Units In” Case • Through 2006 for “Sithe Mystic Exp. In” Case • Through 2004 for “Sithe Mystic Exp. Out” Case

  29. Preliminary Results Summary • The greatest amount of transmission congestion is observed on the SEMA-RI Export Interface (G=8,765 MW; L=4,118 MW; S=4,647 MW; Export Limit = 1,600 MW).

  30. Preliminary Results Summary • Other interfaces where the transmission limit is hit are the ME-NH, North to South, Boston Import, CT Import and SWCT Import.

  31. Multi-Area LOLE Results - All Units In

  32. Multi-Area LOLE Results - Sithe Exp. In

  33. Multi-Area LOLE Results - Sithe Exp. Out

  34. Interface Flows - Year 2002

  35. Interface Flows - Year 2003

  36. Interface Flows - Year 2004

  37. Interface Flows - Year 2005

  38. Interface Flows - Year 2006

  39. Peak Load Data - Non Coincident

  40. Peak Load Data - Coincident

  41. Load and Capacity Data

  42. Load and Capacity Data

  43. Load and Capacity Data

  44. Load and Capacity Data

  45. Load and Capacity Data

  46. RTEP01 IREMM - The Inter-Regional Electric Market Model • Wayne H. Coste, P.E. • Principal, IREMM, Inc.

  47. What is IREMM The IREMM Model is designed to: - Focus on the dynamics of the broad bulk power markets - Represents key aspects of the: - Electric generation infrastructure - Transmission Infrastructure - Allows analysis of behaviors by market participants - Allows analysis of market place fundamentals - Avoids pitfall of looking at unit level production costs in excruciating detail - Detailed representations of generating resources is available - Multi-block representations are available - Block level bidding strategies - Marketplace risk definition is not improved by additional generation detail

  48. IREMM Can Be Used To Analyze marketplace dynamics - Buyers vs. Sellers - Allows analysis of market place fundamentals - Supply vs. Demand - Effect of generation additions - Effect of unit retirements - Automatic retirement of unprofitable units Fuel consumption trends and patterns Generation bidding strategies Transmission constraint effect on prices

  49. IREMM Versions IREMM Versions - Monthly model - On/Mid/Off peak load duration curve - Excellent for looking at broad issues quickly - Limited ability to deal with correlation between market areas - Hourly - 8760 hour analysis - Includes a simplified unit commitment logic - Includes operating reserve requirements - Allows issues related to load correlation to be analyzed - Capacity value and transmission congestion is dependant on correlation

  50. Forecasting Wholesale Electrical Prices Simulate dynamics of competitive bulk power markets - Quantify bulk power buyers and sellers - Estimate equilibrium purchase / sale prices Marginal production costs establish profitability - Replacement fuel price (typically a spot price) - Variable O&M - Environmental allowance values Embedded costs do not influence spot market prices - explicitly Minimum pricing strategy will be used to try to capture higher profit levels Price is set by someone's cost ... plus bidding strategy ... Somewhere From these simulations, many market attributes can be analyzed

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