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Development of M eso-scale N umerical M odel S ystem in I H R

This article reviews the development history, research, and application of the Advanced Regional Eta Model (AREM) in the Institute of Heavy Rain (IHR), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Wuhan. It discusses the technical features, improvements, and capabilities of AREM, along with its applications in heavy rain forecast experiments. The article also examines the use of 3DVAR assimilation and the distribution of products from the model system.

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Development of M eso-scale N umerical M odel S ystem in I H R

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  1. Development of Meso-scale Numerical Model System in IHR Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan Cui Chun-guang, Li Jun, Shi Yan

  2. Contents 1.Review of development history 2.Research and application of AREM 3.development in near future WHIHR

  3. 1. Review of development history WHIHR

  4. From 1950’s to 1970’s barotropic model baroclinic dry model WHIHR

  5. From 1980’s precipitation model • 1985, CRONWS(Central China Regional Operational Numerical Weather forecasting System) -----Zhou Xiaoping • 1990,MAPS（Mesoscale Analyses and Prediction System)-----Yu Kangqing • Middle-late 1990’s ,AREM(Advanced Regional Eta Model) -----Yu Rucong • MM5, Grapes etc. WHIHR

  6. 1987 1995 CRONWS 1996 2004 MAPS 1999 AREM Application WHIHR

  7. 2. Research and application of AREM WHIHR

  8. 2.1 Main technical features • -ladder topography coordinate • Static deduction • IAP variable transformation • “half grid spacing difference scheme” of E-grid • two-step shape-preserving advection scheme WHIHR

  9. vertical ladder coordinate() W, H Pt, =0 K=1 U, V, T, Q K=1 W, H K=2 U, V, T, Q K=2 Ps, s Ps, s K=KM Mountain K=KM Ps, s K=KM+1 WHIHR

  10. V T T V T V T T T T V Schematic Diagram to illustrate the finite difference scheme on E-grid Assumed point WHIHR

  11. two-step shape-preserving advection scheme (Yu Rucong,1994)： guarantee the calculation facticity of water vapor transfer directly associated with rainstorm WHIHR

  12. WHIHR

  13. 2.2 Development course of AREM Rem AremV2.1 AremV2.3 AremV3.0 • From 1999 to 2003 WHIHR

  14. Improvements of AREM 75Km 6Km Resolution: WHIHR

  15. Improvements of AREM Fixed boundary 100hPa Time-variation boundary 10hPa Lateral boundary and upper boundary conditions: WHIHR

  16. Improvements of AREM Lower boundary conditions: Non-local boundary scheme WHIHR

  17. Improvements of AREM Saturation condensation Betts convection adjustment Cold cloud micro-physics process Betts convection adjustment Physics options: WHIHR

  18. Improvements of AREM Bulk permutation method CLM land surface process Unabridged radiation process Bulk permutation method Surface flux and radiation: WHIHR

  19. Improvements of AREM Advanced Barnes 3-dimensional variation Advanced Barnes Initial conditions: WHIHR

  20. 2.3 AREM capability examination WHIHR

  21. Northeastern heavy rain Northern heavy rain Jul 20th~Agu 10th Meiyu front heavy rain in Yangtze River valley Jun~Jul Southern heavy rain in former flood season May~ Jun 10th Geographic distribution of Heavy rain in China WHIHR

  22. Forecast experiments of heavy rain in Yangtse River valley WHIHR

  23. heavy rain event in South Henan province in Jul 16th,2004 12km OBS WHIHR

  24. experiments of heavy rain in South China OBS 12KM 37KM 6KM heavy rain event in Yangjiang city, Guangdong province in May 7th,2004 WHIHR

  25. simulated 3-D cloud planform(0.1g/kg equivalence level) 0600 UTC 12AUG2004 0800 UTC 12AUG2004 0700 UTC 12AUG2004 Infrared satellite cloud chart Numerical simulation to Typhoon Rananim WHIHR

  26. precipitation rate (mm/h) and 700 hPa streamline field WHIHR

  27. track of Typhoon Rananim 12Z12 Red line: observed Blue line: simulated 06Z12 00Z12 18Z11 12Z11 WHIHR

  28. Time-Meridional cross section of daily mean precipitation rate in JJA 2003 (averaged between 110°E and 122.5°E) OBS AREM WHIHR

  29. Northeast China North China South China WHIHR

  30. WHIHR

  31. Evolution in Precipitation Rate in mm/h Hourly precipitation in Wuhan region during 20th-22thJul,1998 Observed Max. Simulated Observed Mean Black-simulated red-observed Maxgreen-observed mean WHIHR

  32. Parameter Grade Grade AREM AREM MM5 MM5 JAPAN JAPAN T213 T213 TS TS Ⅰ Ⅰ 66 65 43 57 49 58 51 54 Ⅱ Ⅱ 50 51 33 41 36 46 35 37 Ⅲ Ⅲ 42 39 24 28 30 39 28 28 Ⅳ Ⅳ 31 23 16 15 21 30 21 10 Ⅴ Ⅴ 10 9 10 5 11 9 11 1 PO PO Ⅰ Ⅰ 17 9 44 22 13 7 3 4 Ⅱ Ⅱ 17 23 43 41 14 8 14 16 Ⅲ Ⅲ 34 38 62 62 24 29 39 45 Ⅳ Ⅳ 50 62 69 78 50 61 66 86 Ⅴ Ⅴ 82 85 74 92 79 90 83 99 NH NH Ⅰ Ⅰ 23 30 34 32 46 39 47 44 Ⅱ Ⅱ 43 40 54 44 60 52 62 60 Ⅲ Ⅲ 45 48 60 48 65 54 64 64 Ⅳ Ⅳ 53 63 72 68 72 45 61 75 Ⅴ Ⅴ 78 83 85 89 77 67 69 94 Contrast between AREM with other models Parameter 2003 2004 WHIHR

  33. AREM system can well describe all kinds of heavy rain events in China regions to the east of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau on following aspects : rainband feature, intensity, vertical structure of precipitation rate evolvement of hourly rainfall. WHIHR

  34. Preliminary Test of 3-DVAR • Variation analysis based on Grapes/3DVAR system • 1DVAR assimilation of precipitation • By Adjusting humidity and temperature profile • 3DVAR assimilation of radar wind field • 3DVAR of ATOVS WHIHR

  35. 3DVAR（red）and successive correction（blue） Precipitation forecast capability is improved greatly by 3DVAR WHIHR

  36. Real distribution of precipitation over 25mm during Jul 8th-9th,2003 08:00 AM (unit:mm) WHIHR

  37. Simulative 24h precipitation during Jul 8th-9th,2003 08:00 AM( unit: mm) Wuhan & Yichand radars wind field assimilation Without radar wind field assimilation WHIHR

  38. 2.4 product distribution WHIHR

  39. Publish online 3Ddisplay WHIHR

  40. 3. Development in near future WHIHR

  41. Improvements on physics scheme: • cloud and rain course • boundary layer scheme • radiation course • surface flux parameterization WHIHR

  42. Research on data assimilation technique • To develop schemes with the capability of assimilating such as : radar reflectivity and wind , satellite data, wind profile GPS water vapor content, rain gauge data surface station etc. WHIHR

  43. wish to cooperate with NSSL and FSL Research on data assimilation technique (continued) • Learn from RUC system and LAPS to build a meso-scale reanalysis system WHIHR

  44. Research on short-term ensemble forecast technique • Based on initial field disturbance WHIHR

  45. Interpretation technique of model forecast product WHIHR

  46. Application technique of QPF on other areas • Flood forecast based on Hydrology-meteorology models coupling • Prediction of geologicaldisaster caused by heavy rain WHIHR

  47. AREM system in developing… Weather forecast lateral condition provided by T213 forecasting field T213 NCEP Environment forecast First Guess Fields Numerical simulation Meso-scale reanalysis System based on 3/4Dvar AREM Meso-scale reanalysis field Hydrological application Geologicaldisaster Ensemble forecast based on initial disturbance Education & training WHIHR

  48. Thanks ! WHIHR

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