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2012 Top to Bottom Ranking

2012 Top to Bottom Ranking. Understanding How the Ranking is Calculated. Why use the TTB Diagnostically?. Move from metric as designation only (“stick”) to leveraging the metric as a diagnostic tool for schools

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2012 Top to Bottom Ranking

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  1. 2012 Top to Bottom Ranking Understanding How the Ranking is Calculated

  2. Why use the TTB Diagnostically? • Move from metric as designation only (“stick”) to leveraging the metric as a diagnostic tool for schools • Resist urge for “more data” until we understand the metrics available; avoids “dying in data” • Focus of this presentation: • Overview of calculations • How to interpret results (for schools and districts)

  3. Top to Bottom List • Statewide ranking of ALL schools • Bottom 5% = Priority/PLA schools (starting SY 2012-2013) • Also used for Focus and Reward: • Use achievement gap component only  Focus schools • Use top 5% overall  Reward schools • Use improvement component only  Reward schools

  4. Top to Bottom (TTB) Ranking • Three main components by subject: • Achievement • Improvement in achievement over time • The largest achievement gap between two subgroups calculated based on the top scoring 30% of students versus the bottom scoring 30% of students Each component tells schools something about their overall performance and can be used for diagnostics

  5. TTB Ranking • In addition to the achievement components, student graduation is included in the statewide top-to-bottom ranking for schools with a graduation rate in the two following ways: • Graduation Rate • Improvement in graduation rate over time

  6. Who receives a ranking? Schools with 30+ full academic year (FAY) students over the last two years in at least two state-tested content areas; school must be OPEN at time of list generation Application  Some schools do not receive a ranking if they: • Have too few FAY students • Only have one year of data

  7. Tested Grades and Subjects • Reading and Mathematics: Grades 3-8 and 11 • In grades 3-8, testing every year allows us to figure out student performance level change (our current “growth” metric) in reading and math • Students can either significantly improve, improve, maintain, decline or significantly decline • Writing: Grades 4 & 7 • Science: Grades 5 & 8 • Social Studies: Grades 6 & 9

  8. What about Reconfigured schools? • A school must change by four or more grades in order to get a new code • Example: A K-2 building becoming a K-6 building. • New codes NOT granted when a school is reopened as a charter, for example • If not, the school retains the old code and continues to have data “point” at it from all students for whom that code is their feeder school • There is no “phase reset” like there was in AYP • If school population changed by 51%, could request a phase reset—still got AYP calculations, but sanctions delayed • Under Priority/Focus interventions, would simply have a customized intervention.

  9. What is a Z-Score? Quick Reference for Z-Scores

  10. Why do We Use Z Scores? • Z-scores are a standardized measure that helps you compare individual student (or school) data to the state average data (average scores across populations). • Z-scores allow us to “level the playing field” across grade levels and subjects • Each Z-score corresponds to a value in a normal distribution. A Z-Score will describe how much a value deviates from the mean. What do you need to know: Z-scores are used throughout the ranking to compare a school’s value on a certain component to the average value across all schools.

  11. Z-Score “Cheat Sheet” Student z-score = (Student Scale Score) – (Statewide average of scale scores) Standard Deviation of Scale Score School z-score= (School Value) – (Statewide average of that value) Standard deviation of that value Z Score Summary PowerPoint and Business Rules- http://www.michigan.gov/mde/0,4615,7-140-37818_56562---,00.html

  12. Z-Score “Cheat Sheet” • Z-scores are centered around zero • Positive numbers mean the student or school is above the state average • Negative numbers mean the student or school is below the state average State Average …Worse than state average Better than state average…. 1 -3 -2 0 2 3 -1

  13. Z-Score Examples • Your school has a z-score of 1.5. You are better than the state average. Z-score of 1.5 State Average …Worse than state average Better than state average…. 1 -3 -2 0 2 3 -1

  14. Z-Score Examples • Your school has a z-score of .2. You are better than the state average, but not by a lot. Z-score of 0.2 Z-score of 1.5 State Average …Worse than state average Better than state average…. 1 -3 -2 0 2 3 -1

  15. Z-Score Examples • Your school has a z-score of -2.0. You are very far below state average. Z-score of -2.0 Z-score of 0.2 Z-score of 1.5 State Average …Worse than state average Better than state average…. 1 -3 -2 0 2 3 -1

  16. How Is the Top to Bottom Ranking Calculated • For grade 3-8 reading and mathematics Two-Year Average Standardized Student Scale (Z) Score School Achievement Z-Score 1/2 Two-Year Average Performance Level Change Index School Performance Level Change Z-Score Content Index Z-score School Content Area Index 1/4 Two-Year Average Bottom 30% - Top 30% Z-Score Gap School Achievement Gap Z-Score 1/4

  17. How do we get Standardized Scale Scores for Each Student? • Step #1: Take each student’s score on the test they took and compare that score to the statewide average for students who took that same test in the same grade and year • This creates a student-level z-score for each student in each content area • Compare • MEAP to MEAP • MEAP-Access to MEAP-Access • MME to MME • MI-Access • Participation to Participation • Supported Independence to Supported Independence • Functional Independence to Functional Independence

  18. What do we do with those standardized scores? • Step #2: Once each student has a z-score for each content area (based on the test they took), we take all of the students in a each school, and rank order the students within the school. • Z-scores will have come from different tests, and compare students to statewide average for that grade, test, and subject • But they can now be combined for the school • Step #3: Add up all z-scores and take the average. This is now the average standardized student scale score. • Step #4: Define the top and bottom 30% subgroups, based on that rank ordering.

  19. Average Z-score (average standardized student scale score): 0.28 (sum all z-scores, divide by 15)

  20. Top 30% Bottom 30%

  21. How Is the Top to Bottom Ranking Calculated • For grade 3-8 reading and mathematics Two-Year Average Standardized Student Scale (Z) Score School Achievement Z-Score 1/2 Two-Year Average Performance Level Change Index School Performance Level Change Z-Score Content Index Z-score School Content Area Index 1/4 Two-Year Average Bottom 30% - Top 30% Z-Score Gap School Achievement Gap Z-Score 1/4

  22. What is important to show Schools? • For grade 3-8 reading and mathematics Two-Year Average Standardized Student Scale (Z) Score School Achievement Z-Score 1/2 Two-Year Average Performance Level Change Index School Performance Level Change Z-Score Content Index Z-score School Content Area Index 1/4 Step #1: Achievement How well did the school do in that subject? Positive number = better than average Near zero = average Negative number = worse than average Two-Year Average Bottom 30% - Top 30% Z-Score Gap School Achievement Gap Z-Score 1/4

  23. Step #2: Improvement Is the school improving in that subject? Positive number = greater rate of improvement than average Near zero = average improvement Negative = slower rate of improvement than average; can also mean they are declining What is important to show Schools? • For grade 3-8 reading and mathematics Two-Year Average Standardized Student Scale (Z) Score School Achievement Z-Score 1/2 Two-Year Average Performance Level Change Index School Performance Level Change Z-Score Content Index Z-score School Content Area Index 1/4 Two-Year Average Bottom 30% - Top 30% Z-Score Gap School Achievement Gap Z-Score 1/4

  24. Raw value is also meaningful: Positive number: More students improving than declining Negative number: More students declining than improving What is important to show Schools? • For grade 3-8 reading and mathematics Two-Year Average Standardized Student Scale (Z) Score School Achievement Z-Score 1/2 Two-Year Average Performance Level Change Index School Performance Level Change Z-Score Content Index Z-score School Content Area Index 1/4 Two-Year Average Bottom 30% - Top 30% Z-Score Gap School Achievement Gap Z-Score 1/4

  25. Step #3: Achievement Gap Is the gap in that subject between top 30% and bottom 30%: (positive number) = smaller gap than average (negative number) = larger gap than average (near zero) = average gap What is important to show Schools? • For grade 3-8 reading and mathematics Two-Year Average Standardized Student Scale (Z) Score School Achievement Z-Score 1/2 Two-Year Average Performance Level Change Index School Performance Level Change Z-Score Content Index Z-score School Content Area Index 1/4 Two-Year Average Bottom 30% - Top 30% Z-Score Gap School Achievement Gap Z-Score 1/4

  26. Once they have looked at each component, Discuss: • What’s the overall pattern? • Low achievement? • Declining achievement? • Large gaps? • Where are the actionable areas? • Which subjects need the most attention? • Is everyone doing poorly (small gap, low achievement) or are some students doing well and others falling behind (decent achievement, but large gap)

  27. What is important to show Schools? • For grade 3-8 reading and mathematics Two-Year Average Standardized Student Scale (Z) Score School Achievement Z-Score 1/2 Reward Schools (for improvement) Two-Year Average Performance Level Change Index School Performance Level Change Z-Score Content Index Z-score School Content Area Index 1/4 Focus Schools Two-Year Average Bottom 30% - Top 30% Z-Score Gap School Achievement Gap Z-Score 1/4

  28. Weighted Performance Level Change • A weighted composite of individual student performance level change is used to calculate improvement in grades 3-8 reading and mathematics • Rewards large improvements more heavily, rewards maintenance of proficiency if a student was already proficient

  29. How Is the Top to Bottom Ranking Calculated • For science, social studies, writing, and grade 11 all tested subjects Two-Year Average Standardized Student Scale (Z) Score School Achievement Z-Score 1/2 Four-Year Achievement Trend Slope School Performance Achievement Trend Z-Score School Content Area Index Content Index Z-score 1/4 Two-Year Average Bottom 30% - Top 30% Z-Score Gap School Achievement Gap Z-Score 1/4

  30. How Is the Top to Bottom Ranking Calculated • For graduation rate Two-Year Average Graduation Rate School Graduation Rate Z-Score 2/3 Four-Year Graduation Rate Trend Slope School Graduation Rate Trend Z-Score School Graduation Rate Index Grad Index Z-score 1/3

  31. How Is the Top to Bottom Ranking Calculated • Calculating a four-year slope (e.g., graduation rate) • Plot the school’s graduation rate for the last four years • Plot a linear regression line through the points • Calculate the slope of the line (gives the school’s annual improvement rate)

  32. How Is the Top to Bottom Ranking Calculated • Calculating a four-year slope (e.g., graduation rate) • Plot the school’s graduation rate for the last four years • Plot a linear regression line through the points • Calculate the slope of the line (gives the school’s annual improvement rate)

  33. How Is the Top to Bottom Ranking Calculated • Calculating a four-year slope (e.g., graduation rate) • Plot the school’s graduation rate for the last four years • Plot a linear regression line through the points • Calculate the slope of the line (gives the school’s annual improvement rate) Slope = 2.3%

  34. How Is the Top to Bottom Ranking Calculated • Calculating an overall ranking for a school with a graduation rate School Mathematics Std Index 18% School Reading Std Index 18% Overall Standardized School Index Overall School Percentile Rank School Science Std Index 18% School Social Studies Std Index 18% School Writing Std Index 18% School Graduation Rate Std Index 10%

  35. How Is the Top to Bottom Ranking Calculated • Calculating an overall ranking for a school without a graduation rate School Mathematics Std Index 20% Look at each subject index. Help schools understand which subjects are strong/weak for them. Positive number: better than average Negative number: below average Near zero: near average School Reading Std Index 20% Overall School Standardized Index Overall School Percentile Rank School Science Std Index 20% School Social Studies Std Index 20% School Writing Std Index 20%

  36. How Is the Top to Bottom Ranking Calculated • Calculating an overall ranking for a school without a graduation rate and without a writing score School Mathematics Index 25% School Reading Index 25% Overall School Standardized Index Overall School Percentile Rank School Science Index 25% School Social Studies Index 25%

  37. Which years of data are in the ranking?

  38. For elementary and middle schools • Michigan tests in the fall. • These fall tests reflect the learning of students in the previous school year. SY 2008-2009 SY 2009-2010 SY 2010-2011 Fall 2010 Testing Fall 2008 Testing Fall 2009 Testing Fall 2011 Testing

  39. For High Schools • Michigan tests in the spring • The spring test (MME and MI-Access) measures what students have learned from grades 9, 10 and grade 11 prior to the MME testing.

  40. What do the 2012 Rankings reflect? • For elementary/middle schools: • Performance on the MEAP and MI-Access tests in fall 2011 (which represents learning from school year 2010-2011) and before • For high schools: • Performance on the MME and MI-Access tests in spring 2012 (which represents learning from school year 2011-2012 prior to testing) and before.

  41. Resources to Understand my Ranking

  42. Resources Available • Complete list of all schools and their ranking • Individual school look-up to see your school’s results • Overview presentation with voice over • FAQ • Business rules by which the rankings were calculated • Complete data file and validation file You can access these resources at www.mi.gov/ttb You can also request individual assistance by calling the Evaluation, Research and Accountability unit at 517-373-1342, or emailing mde-accountability@michigan.gov

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