Trends in world wheat production - A roadmap to India for feeding the population by 2050

1. Trends in world wheat production - A roadmap to India for feeding the population by 2050 International Wheat Conference | September 20-25, 2015 | Sydney, AUSTRALIA Sendhil Ramadas, Ravish Chatrath and Indu Sharma ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research, Karnal | INDIA (erstwhile Directorate of Wheat Research)

2. Presentation Outline… Prologue Data and Methodology Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security Conclusions and Policy Implications

3. Prologue

4. Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications Wheat is an integral part of food and nutrition security as well as economic development 2014-15

5. Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications Rationale… • Staple food for a majority of the people • Global consumption demand at 2050 has been projected as 880 mt (FAO) • Burgeoning population (World: 9.6 billion in 2050) • Multiple production challenges & increasing consumption rate • World wheat area hovering around 225 mha • Globally, the wheat yield has to be increased by 60 % due to climate change so as to meet the world demand by 2050 (Ray et al., 2013 – PLOS One). But as per the current growth trend only 38 % increase seems to be possible

6. Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications Rationale… (Ray et al., 2013 – PLOS One)

7. Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications Specific Objectives To estimate the growth and instability in area, production and yield of wheat for major countries To categorize the countries in the growth-instability matrix for identifying the focal country To lay a roadmap for feeding the population by 2050 through sustainable wheat production

8. Data and Methodology

9. Data • Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications Secondary • www.fao.org • http://eands.dacnet.nic.in • www.usda.gov • www.indiastat.com • www.indexmundi.com

10. Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications Growth and Instability A. Compound Annual Growth Rate:Y= α βt Log Y= Log α + t Log β CAGR = [antilog (β) – 1] x 100 B. Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index : C. Coefficient of Variation (CV) :

11. Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications Steps in Data Analysis 4. Policy Relevance for the Focal Country 3. Classification on the Matrix 2. Estimate CAGR - CDVI 1. Data Normalization Data on APY

12. Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications Actual vis-à-vis Normalized Data – A case of INDIA’s Production

13. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security

14. Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications Canada, France, Germany India, Iran Nepal, Pakistan Poland, Romania Spain, Sweden Turkey USA World Positive Afghanistan, Algeria Argentina, Australia Brazil, Bulgaria China, Denmark, Egypt Hungary, Iraq Mexico Morocco South Africa Syria United Kingdom Canada, China Denmark, Egypt France, Germany India Italy, Mexico Pakistan, Poland Spain, Sweden Turkey, United Kingdom USA, World Positive Afghanistan, Algeria Australia, Brazil Bulgaria, Hungary Iran, Iraq Morocco, Nepal Romania South Africa Syria Top 30 wheat producers were considered (China to Nepal) Yield Area TE 1963/64 to TE 2013/14 TE 1963/64 to TE 2013/14 TE 1963/64 to TE 2013/14 Production Australia, Brazil Denmark Egypt Iraq, Syria United Kingdom Bulgaria, France, Germany India, Iran Morocco, Nepal Pakistan, Poland Sweden Turkey Positive Negative Negative Negative Italy -- -- Afghanistan, Algeria Argentina, Canada Mexico, South Africa Spain, USA -- China Hungary Italy Romania World Growth (CAGR) Growth (CAGR) Growth (CAGR) Instability (Cuddy-Della Valle) Instability (Cuddy-Della Valle) Instability (Cuddy-Della Valle) High (> 11.83) High (> 10.57) High (> 16.13) Low (< 10.57) Low (< 16.13) Low (< 11.83)

15. Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications Classification of Indian States (Consistent between 1995-96 to 2004-05 and 2005-06 to 2014-15)

16. Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications INDIA: 35 years before scenario | 2014-15 | 35 years ahead target? 51mt in the next 35 years…

17. Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications SWOT Analysis Strengths (within system that help to achieve the set target) • Strong All India Coordinated Wheat Improvement Project with the support of ICAR which develop varieties suitable for different agro-climatic zones • Availability of huge collection of germplasm and possibility for utilizing its genetic diversity • International linkages for knowledge and resource sharing • Extension personnel within the system to carry successful technologies from lab to field

18. Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications SWOT Analysis Weaknesses (within system that affect in achieving the set target) • Agriculture being a state subject, a miniscule lag in technology transfer between Central and State Governments • Lack of commercialization due to weak linkage between public and private sector • Lack of sufficient infrastructure facilities in remote areas

19. Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications SWOT Analysis Opportunities (outside the system that help to achieve the set target) • Bridging yield gaps giving a huge scope for increasing the production • Targeting low productivity states having considerable area under wheat • Prevalence of huge domestic and international demand for value addition • Easy access to recent biotechnological and bio-informatics tools to augment the crop productivity • Foreign exchange through exports

20. Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications SWOT Analysis Threats (outside the system that hinders in achieving the set target) • Chance of area decline owing to urbanization • Population pressure vis-à-vis demand • Climate change • Over use of inputs & resource services • Deteriorating soil health and ground water • Declining total factor productivity • Fragmentation of land and declining farm size • Reduced net returns • Competing crops – Area vis-à-vis price • IPR issues • Price volatility • Weather anomalies

21. Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications Production decline due to weather anomalies Price Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana Quantity

22. Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications Cause vis-à-vis Effect on Price and Poverty 2013-14: 59.31 mt 2014-15: 52.86 mt Ending Stocks (2014-15) : 11.90mt Chaos Theory – Would it be a Butterfly Effect??

23. Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications Scenarios for 140 mt Production Target in 2050

24. Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications Zone wise target for attaining 140 million tonnes in 2050

25. Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications Zone wise share for attaining 140 million tonnes 140 mt 52 % 22 % 22 %

26. Production Area Yield Technology Extension Policy Institution 1. Superior Varieties 2. Hybrids 3. Transgenics 1. Demonstrations 2. Village Adoption 3. Field Days 4. Exhibition 1. Price Policy 2. Input policy (seed, credit) 1. Markets 2. Distribution System 3. Social Institutions • Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications Framework for Technology-Extension-Policy-Institution Synergy Price Research

27. Take Home Message…

28. Prologue • Data and Methodology • Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security • Conclusions and Policy Implications • A spectrum of varieties released on yield traits & resistance • Continuous monitoring & surveillance • Demonstrations in farmer’s field • Bridging yield gaps • Support price to farmers “Prevention is always better than cure” Positive Economics: What done? Normative Economics: What ought to be done? • Variety release on economic evaluation • Disaster forewarning system • Cluster demonstrations & impact • Bridging knowledge & information gap • Deficient price payment system • Promotion of risk management strategies like weather insurance • Seed & variety replacement • One seed village per block • Single & reliable source of information • Promotion of storage structures • Technology foresight centre

29. Acknowledgements

30. Believe the present young generation will continue their SMILE while they do farming at 2050