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Estimating CO2 Marginal Abatement Costs for Portugal using the TIMES_PT Model

This research project evaluates the total costs and benefits of energy policies and future energy systems in Portugal, specifically focusing on estimating the CO2 marginal abatement costs. The implementation of the TIMES_PT model and its main assumptions are discussed, as well as the comparison of CO2 abatement in different scenarios.

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Estimating CO2 Marginal Abatement Costs for Portugal using the TIMES_PT Model

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  1. Estimate of CO2 Marginal abatement costs for Portugal using the TIMES_PT model Sofia Simões, João Cleto, Patrícia Fortes, Júlia Seixas Environmental Sciences and Engineering Department New University of Lisbon Portugal

  2. Implementation of TIMES_PT NEEDS NEEDS E2POL EU research project Evaluation of total costs and benefits of energy policies and future energy systems http://www.needs-project.org/nf2.asp National research project Quantifying interactions between energy and environment policy instruments http://air.dcea.fct.unl.pt/projects/e2pol/ TIMES_PT Implementation of TIMES for Portugal: 2000-2030 (2050)

  3. TIMES_PT - main assumptions Calibration assumptions • Max CHP penetration in industry – up to 50% of ind. electricity consumed in 2030 • Max natural gas penetration of 85% • Inertia factors in residential and commercial sectors • Limits on electricity imports (+255% than 2000) and exports (+121% than 2000)

  4. CO2 Marginal abatement costs curve (I) -30% -20% -10% +10% 0% +20% Kyoto -30% -20% -10% 0% +10% +20% Kyoto

  5. CO2 Marginal abatement costs curve (II) 113% Nat. Estimates - High Reference Scenario 100% Nat. Estimates Low Reference Scenario

  6. Primary energy 14% 17% 16% 12% 17% 19% 21% 22% 24% 22% 23% 29% 27% 33% 30%

  7. CO2 abatement compared to Kyoto scenario 19% 15% 18% 12% 18% 22% 27% 32% 42% 45% 47% 31% 47% 42% 44% 44% 28% 40% 45% 35% 30% 57% 61% 78% 33% 13% 11% 99% 16% 18%

  8. Some indicators

  9. sgcs@fct.unl.ptjfcn@fct.unl.ptp.fs@fct.unl.ptmjs@fct.unl.pthttp://air.dcea.fct.unl.pt/projects/e2pol/sgcs@fct.unl.ptjfcn@fct.unl.ptp.fs@fct.unl.ptmjs@fct.unl.pthttp://air.dcea.fct.unl.pt/projects/e2pol/

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