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TEAM TERMINATOR

TEAM TERMINATOR. Brian Novak. Michael Cleaver. Danny Ohrn. Emily Ramage. TEAM TERMINATOR. Strength Power Frequency Duration. Al Gore says WHAT??????. However, the actual hurricane data tells a different story…. Hurricane Intensity as a Function of Maximum Wind Velocity.

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TEAM TERMINATOR

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  1. TEAM TERMINATOR Brian Novak Michael Cleaver Danny Ohrn Emily Ramage

  2. TEAM TERMINATOR • Strength • Power • Frequency • Duration

  3. Al Gore says WHAT??????

  4. However, the actual hurricane data tells a different story… Hurricane Intensity as a Function of Maximum Wind Velocity

  5. Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 203.394 Chance Probability 0.0055

  6. Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 3.4198Critical Value for p=0.01 32.00Chance Probability 0.9997

  7. Slopes of Expected Value Regressions 1851-1899 -0.0722 Knots/Year 1900-1949 0.707 Knots/Year 1950-2006 -0.219 Knots/Year

  8. Hurricane Intensity as a Function of Minimum Central Pressure

  9. Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 25.8697 Chance Probability 1.000

  10. Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 0.48922 Critical Value for p=0.01 32.00 Chance Probability 0.9999

  11. Slopes of Expected Value Regressions 1851-1899 0.1754 Millibars/Year 1900-1949 0.352 Millibars/Year 1950-2006 0.1513 Millibars/Year

  12. Slopes of Expected Value Regressions 1851-1899 0.1754 Millibars/Year 1900-1949 0.352 Millibars/Year 1950-2006 0.1513 Millibars/Year

  13. Landfall: A Measure of a Storm’s Power

  14. Hurricane Formation • The Three Requirements for Hurricane Formation • Over Land, Hurricanes Die

  15. Our Data • The Percentage of Measurable Storms that Reached Land • The Number of Days on Land Per Land-bound Storm

  16. Standard Deviation was 0.20 days • A Chi2 Test Determined X2 = 0.24 with 14 degrees of freedom • Critical Value = 10.83, The null hypothesis cannot be rejected!

  17. Landfall Conclusions • There is no linear correlation between time and percentage of storms that reach land • The average number of days on land per land-bound storm

  18. Frequency of Damage Insurance Industry takes notice -Al Gore Swiss re sigma report More People in Hazard areas -IWTC report

  19. Frequency of Hurricanes Chi squared value .125254642

  20. Major Hurricanes Absolute #’s increasing Chi squared Value .738022

  21. Category 4&5’s have doubled in the Last Year1 -Al Gore Chi Squared Value 3.449001

  22. Frequency • Increase in destructiveness not correlated • Frequency of major hurricanes is increasing • Shows some correlation to temperature • Al’s short term scare

  23. Duration Categories: • Season Duration • Storm • All Storms • In Hurricane Status • Longest Yearly Storm

  24. 10 Year Average Season Duration 1851-2006 Chi-squared: 35.94 Critical value, 16 df, p = 0.001: 39.25

  25. Average Storm Duration vs. Temperature Deviation 1900-2006 Chi squared: 191 Critical Value, 11 df, p = 0.001: 31.26

  26. Average Storm Duration as Hurricane vs. Temperature Variation 1900-2006

  27. Longest Yearly Storm vs. Temperature Deviation 1900-2006

  28. Duration Conclusions • Season duration shows a positive correlation over time. • Data does not support a relationship between storm duration and global temperature increase since 1900.

  29. CONCLUSIONS • Data does not consistently support a pattern of increased frequency and strength of hurricanes over time. • Linear relationships remain linear despite increasing temperature trends. • Discrepancies in measurement techniques? • Intricate dynamics of hurricane formation? • Single variable data modeling techniques?

  30. References Raw hurricane data from Greg Bothun’s link on Blackboard.uoregon.edu Atlantic Tropical Storm Tracking by Year http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/ 1Lovgren , Stefan. "Al Gore's "Inconvenient Truth" Movie: Fact or Hype?.” National Geographic News. May 25, 2006. National Geographic. 24 Apr 2007 <http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/060524-global-warming.html>. IWTC Statement "Global Warming and Hurricanes." Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Dec. 7, 2007. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 24 Apr 2007 <http://www.gfdl.gov/~tk/glob_warm_hurr.html>.

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