From Iran to Morocco Development Challenges in the Middle East and North Africa

1. From Iran to Morocco Development Challenges in the Middle East and North Africa Qaiser Khan, Senior Economist, The World Bank Presented at Colby College April 21, 2003

2. Djibouti Middle East & North Africa Region

3. Population of the Middle East and North Africa, 1000-2035 700,000,000 600,000,000 500,000,000 Population 400,000,000 300,000,000 200,000,000 100,000,000 0 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2035 Year

4. Population Growth 2000-2030

5. Yemen 411 Djibouti 802 Syria 1,105 Morocco 1,224 Egypt 1,253 Palestine 1,363 Jordan 1,572 Algeria 1,648 Iran 1,943 Tunisia 2,051 Lebanon 3,609 Oman 6,939 Saudi Arabia 7,300 Bahrain 8,884 Qatar 12,825 Kuwait 16,596 UAE 19,112 OECD 25,956 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Per Capita GDP in US$ MENA Per Capita GDP, 1997

6. Population living on lessthan $1 a day Source; WDI, 2000/2001

7. Population living onless than $2 a day Source: WDI, 2000/2001

8. Projected Annual Growth in Real Per Capita GDP by Region, 2003-2010 Source: Economic Policy and Prospects group, World Bank, Nov 2001

9. Public Social Spending (% GDP) *Includes food subsidies, cash and in-kind transfers, public works, public pension, and housing Source: Various World Bank reports and recent Social Safety Net Updates (1995-2000)

10. 16 14 12 10 % 8 6 4 2 0 OECD SSA SA MENA LAC ECA EAP Unemployment Rates by Region Source: World Bank

11. Role of the World Bank Conferences Policy Advice Shared Experiences Discussion Training Borrowing countries Beneficiaries Private sector Foundations NGOs Civil society Grants Operational Analysis Credits Case Studies Loans Bilateral Aid Research Own Resources Analysis Financing

12. Role of the State in the Economy in MENA • In most OECD countries the state plays a limited role in the economy outside the social sectors • In MENA the state plays a major role (except Lebanon and possibly Tunisia and Morocco) and even in many countries where there is a large private sector – this has developed as a result of state favors as ruling groups distribute favors among supporters. • The state led economy brought many early positives to the region but inefficiency has made them a burden. • Apart from efficiency the state has focused on large capital intensive operations rather than the job creating small and medium enterprise with resulting high unemployment. • The challenges is reducing the role of the direct and indirect role of the state in the economy and let a more dynamic private sector develop and create jobs.

13. Types of Economies in MENA • Low income countries under stress (Djibouti and Yemen) • Middle Income Countries (e.g. Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, West Bank & Gaza, Syria, Tunisia) • High Income Capital surplus economies (Bahrain, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE) • The Bank operates in all of them with the exception of Libya

14. Trends in Infant Mortality,1970 to 1999 (per 1,000 live births) Source: World Development Indicators

15. Trends in Life Expectancy1970-1999 (years of life) Source: World Development Indicators

16. Infant Mortality Rates, 1999 Deaths per 1000 live births

17. Global Trends in Infant Mortality

18. Life Expectancy at Birth, 1999

19. Renewable Water Resourcesper Capita, by Region Source: World Bank

20. Mother’s Education and Infant Mortality • Children of educated mothers are less likely to die

21. Ratio of Girls to Boys in Primary & Secondary Education Source: UNESCO – World Bank SIMA MDG-MENA Website

22. MENA Youth Illiteracy Rates(% aged 15-24)

23. MENA Adult Illiteracy Rates(% aged 15 & above, 1998)

24. Female Genital Cutting Source: Yemen Demographic & MCH survey 1997; Egypt Demographic & Health Survey 1995; Djibouti MOH report for USAID FGC Symposium

25. Regional HIV/AIDS Statistics and Features,End of 1999 * The proportion of adults (15 to 49 years of age) living with HIV/AIDS in 1999 ** Hetero: heterosexual transmission – IDU: transmission through injecting drug use – MSM: sexual transmission among men who have sex with men

26. Reported AIDS cases per 100,000 in selected countries in the MENA Region, with East African comparisons

27. New HIV Infections in MENA

28. HIV Epidemic Levels in the MENA Region • Type 1: Extensive testing, consistently low rates, but no consistent, systematic testing (or reporting) of high-risk groups • Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Iraq • Type 2: Accumulating levels of infection; gradual and slow; some rapid increase in identified high-risk groups • Iran, Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait • Type 3: Very poor levels of information, apparently growing epidemic, probably concentrated in high-risk groups • Libya, Algeria, Yemen • Type 4: High levels of HIV in general population, although solid epidemiological data are lacking • Djibouti, Sudan • Source:OVERVIEW OF THE HIV/AIDS SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST and NORTH AFRICA REGION

29. MENA Military vs. Health Expenditures as a Share of GDP, 1999