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QER SMT Scenario Planning Workshop

QER SMT Scenario Planning Workshop. by Professor Ron Johnston 28 April 2009 Brisbane. QER faces a future marked by uncertainty, complexity and change. Structure of the global economy Extent and impact of potential climate change Range of responses to growing oil scarcity

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QER SMT Scenario Planning Workshop

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  1. QER SMT Scenario Planning Workshop by Professor Ron Johnston 28 April 2009 Brisbane

  2. QER faces a future marked by uncertainty, complexity and change • Structure of the global economy • Extent and impact of potential climate change • Range of responses to growing oil scarcity • New technologies with high impact on supply and demand for energy • Conflict between economic and environmental values • State, national and international legislation and policies

  3. Foresight Assisting organisations to think systematically about the future so they can develop robust strategies for it by: • Understanding what types of futures might be possible • Challenging presumptions • Building greater resilience into strategy

  4. Differentiating Foresight Action-oriented [vs. ‘contemplative’ (passive)] Participatory [vs. non-participatory] Alternative futures[vs. a single future state] Probable, possible and preferred futures

  5. Basic types of dialogue in a Foresight exercise Structured stakeholder dialogue Diagnosis Prognosis Prescription Debating what we would like to happen… Deciding what should be done … Understanding where we are… Exploring what could happen…

  6. Where do we need to be 15-20 years from now? Scenario Planning Avoids the incrementalism of traditional planning Where can we be next year? GOAL GOAL What should we do today? And the next?… Where we Where we Versus are now are now TIME TIME Incrementalism Anticipating Scenario Planning Annual Planning

  7. Avoiding Limitations Instead of: Most LikelyFuture Today MasterPlan AlternativeFutures We will: CoreStrategies Today …A set of core strategies, but not a single “grand strategy”…

  8. Scenarios Selected to Capture The Range of Planning Uncertainty Developing Future Scenarios Key Global Affairs Mission Drivers Derive Key Forces For Change (Dimensions) Outside Direct Control The “Planning Space” Energy Economy Education Trade Regional Conflict Technology Demographics Health & Disease Fiscal Health Ethics Set the Boundary Conditions of the Planning Space

  9. USCG Expertise (Workshop) Set of Robust Strategies Evergreen II Scenarios Future Operating Environments Optimal USCG Strategies Immersion in Future “Worlds” Profits&Principles Congagement Asian Way Lockdown Be Careful What You Wish For

  10. Scenario Planning A scenario is a ‘story’ illustrating visions of possible future or aspects of possible future.. Scenarios are not predictions about the future but rather simulations of some possible futures. They are used both as an exploratory method or a tool for decision-making, mainly to highlight the discontinuities from the present and to reveal the choices available and their potential consequences

  11. Elements of Scenario Planning • Identify the focal issue • Identification and analysis of the drivers • Rank by importance and uncertainty • Selecting scenario parameters • Writing the scenarios • ‘Back-casting’ to identify key interventions

  12. Economic Drivers Resumed economic growth • High energy demand from China, India • Strong drive for alternate fuels • Commodity prices soar again Truncated economic growth • High oil prices constrain economic recovery • Capital availability limited

  13. Environmental Drivers Strong environmental pressures • High range climate change • Copenhagen sets tough ETS requirements – targets to decarbonise economies • Major investment in climate change Moderate environmental pressures • Low range climate change • Increasing doubt about greenhouse science • Priority to create jobs High range climate change

  14. Technological Drivers Major advances in supply technology • Efficiency of oil extraction doubled through application of biological agents • Electric car production soars based on new battery technology Major advances in demand technology • Energy management industry booming with new products and services • High efficiency cars dominate global production

  15. Political Drivers Market based approaches • High level of taxation on road use • Private sector investment drives alternate fuel development Interventionist approaches • Major government investment in alternate fuel development • Governments strongly influenced by environmental pressures

  16. Social/Values Drivers Values dominated by environmental concerns • Hydrocarbon anathema • Large decrease in transport of goods Values dominated by economic concerns • Environmental extremism rejected in favour of jobs and community well-being alternate fuels

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