What do the American people think? How do we know what the American people think?

2. What do the American people think? How do we know what the American people think?

3. Political Socialization • the process of obtaining political ideologies, viewpoints and opinions • Influenced by . . . • Family • School • Occupation, race, gender, place of residence (specific issues)

4. Political Socialization • Influenced by . . . • Family • School • Occupation, race, gender, place of residence (specific issues) • Mass media • Peer groups • Opinion leaders • Historic events

5. Opinion Polling

8. Straw Poll • Unscientific • Relies on asking a large number of people • Respondents are self-selected (not random)

9. Scientific Polling • Define the universe – the population that the poll aims to measure

11. Scientific Polling • Define the universe – the population that the poll aims to measure • Constructing a sample (random sample) – universe too large to ask everyone • All members of the universe have an equal chance of being interviewed • Usually 1,000 – 1,500 people (law of probability) • + or – 3% margin of error

12. Scientific Polling • Prepare valid questions • Phrasing

13. “Should taxes be increased?” “Should taxes be increased in order to expand the police force in order to stem the rising tide of violence in our city?”

14. Scientific Polling • Prepare valid questions • Phrasing • Bias

15. “The right of a woman to terminate her pregnancy should be protected.” “The right of a woman to murder the unborn child in her womb should be protected.”

16. Scientific Polling • Prepare valid questions • Phrasing • Bias • Interview respondents • By phone = more cost effective • Interviewer • Tone • Emphasis • Accent / dialect

17. Scientific Polling • Analyze findings • Interpretation (subjective) • computerization