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In 1900, Electric cars outnumbered gas-powered cars in NYC by a margin of 2:1

In 1900, Electric cars outnumbered gas-powered cars in NYC by a margin of 2:1. Rising Oil Prices Driving Renewed Interest in Electric Vehicles. Crude Oil Prices, 1960 - 2009. 2 nd Wake-up Call: 1979/80 Oil Crisis. Peaked at $147 per Barrel in July 2008. 1 st Wake-up Call: 1973

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In 1900, Electric cars outnumbered gas-powered cars in NYC by a margin of 2:1

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  1. In 1900, Electric cars outnumbered gas-powered cars in NYC by a margin of 2:1

  2. Rising Oil Prices Driving Renewed Interest in Electric Vehicles Crude Oil Prices, 1960 - 2009 2nd Wake-up Call: 1979/80 Oil Crisis Peaked at $147 per Barrel in July 2008 1st Wake-up Call: 1973 Oil Embargo Source: US Energy Information Administration

  3. It’s been a Bumpy Road for the Electric Vehicle (EV) • The Past: Why it failed the first time • The Present: Are we Ready? • The Future: Jumping the Chasm Past Present Future

  4. First, Let’s Go Back in Time Past Present Future Source: Nova. Making Stuff Cleaner. February 2, 2011

  5. The Automobile Market in the early 1900’s • In 1900, there were a total of 2,370 automobiles in New York, Chicago, and Boston • Electric vehicles had 28% market share of the 4,192 cars produced in the US. • There were some 12 manufacturers of electric vehicles in the US (Whitney, Pope, Baker) • In 1906, Baker Electric made 800 electric cars, making them the largest electric vehicle maker in the world Past Present Future

  6. So Who Killed The Electric Car… the first time around? Past Present Future

  7. The Cause of Death Has been Determined • Henry Ford & the Model T assembly line • Discovery of Texas crude oil in 1901 • Invention of the electric starter • Lack of the necessary widespread infrastructure needed for recharging • Highways brought about the need for longer–range vehicles Past Present Future

  8. It’s been a Bumpy Road for the Electric Vehicle (EV) • The Past: Why it failed the first time • The Present: Are we Ready? • The Future: Jumping the Chasm Past Present Future

  9. Renewed Interest and the “Buzz” • Catastrophes (BP oil spill) affectingpolicy makers • Growing dependency on limited supplies of foreign oil • Spiraling gasoline prices • Increasing CO2 emission concerns and the Green movement • Battery tech advancements Past Present Future

  10. Global Energy Demand Expected to rise 44% by 2030 World Energy Demand by Fuel Source (1980 to 2030) Millions of Tons of Oil Equivalent Source: World Energy Outlook 2009, International Energy Agency

  11. The RG Model: Dissecting the EV (Market) Past Present Future

  12. Global Oil Production Plateaus World oil production by type Global oil production reaches 96 mb/d in 2035 on the back of rising output of natural gas liquids & unconventional oil, as crude oil production plateaus Source: World Energy Outlook 2010, International Energy Agency

  13. The RG Model: Dissecting the EV (Technology) • 3 Forms of EV • BEV (purely electric, zero emission) • HEV (hybrid with extended range due to gasoline supplement) • PHEV (plug-in hybrid combines some benefits of both) • Advantages • Efficient energy conversion (captures 80% mechanical energy vs. 25% -- 3x the distance) • Silent and smoother ride • Electric motors require less maintenance • Long run cost savings (affordance) • Government incentives Past Present Future

  14. The RG Model: Dissecting the EV (Technology) • Challenges • Driving range (based on battery limitations) • Recharge time (up to 8 hours) • Battery cost • Initial purchase price (affordance) • Consumer misconceptions • Exploding battery myth • Flimsy and unsafe • Underpowered Past Present Future Tesla Roadster (Supercar Redefined) Source: http://www.teslamotors.com/roadster/ • 288 hp @ 5000-6000 rpm. 215 kWh. (0-60mph in 3.7 seconds) • Range: 245 miles • Max Speed: 125 mph • Starting Price: $108,000 (qualifies for $7,500 federal tax credit)

  15. The RG Model: Dissecting the EV (Firm) Chevrolet Volt (2011 Motor Trend Car of the Year) • General Motors (Chevrolet) • Ramping up in anticipation of healthy forecasts for EVs. • GM predicts it will sell 10,000 Volts in 2011 and between 35,000 and 45,000 in 2012 • “Not a science experiment - but meant to be a high-volume vehicle” • Nissan • Nissan has long lines of prospective buyers - about 24,000 reservations • Nissan’s CEO Carlos Ghosn announced a $1.7 billion investment in a lithium-ion battery plant • Nissan is dropping $5 billion from 2007 to 2012 for its ambitious play to be the leader in electric cars Past Present Future Source: gmvolt.com • 1.4 Liter. 149 hp. 16 kWh Lithium-ion Rechargeable Battery • Range: 35 miles on a single charge (followed by gas generator for additional 340 miles) • Max Speed: 100 mph • Starting Price: $32,780 (qualifies for $7,500 federal tax credit) Nissan LEAF (100% Electric) Source: http://www.nissanusa.com/leaf-electric-car/index#/leaf-electric-car/index • 80 kWh AC synchronous electric motor • Range: 100 miles per charge • Max Speed: 90 mph • Starting Price: $26,220 (qualifies for $7,500 federal tax credit)

  16. Present Day: Nissan Leaf gets 99 MPG-Equivalent • 80 kWh AC synchronous • electric motor • Range: 100 miles per charge • Max Speed: 90 mph • Starting Price: $32,780 (qualifies for $7,500 federal tax credit) Source: CNNMoney

  17. The RG Model: Dissecting the EV (Firm) • Standardization: A Double Edged Sword • Accelerate the growth of a huge new market for auto manufacturers • Bring greater value to the consumer • Constrains the size and configuration of batteries (swapping) • Requires major infrastructure changes • Cooperation and coopetition amongst competitors will catalyze standardization and growth of EV market • Sponsorship challenges: consumer misconceptions & battery limitations • Government is nonetheless, eager to support Past Present Future

  18. Marketing Chasm Everyone else Past Present Future Environmentalists

  19. Market vs. Offerings Past Present Future Source:www.generalmotors/volt, www.nissanusa.com, www.teslamotors.com

  20. It’s been a Bumpy Road for the Electric Vehicle (EV) • The Past: Why it failed the first time • The Present: Are we Ready? • The Future: Jumping the Chasm Past Present Future

  21. What’s next? Past Present Future HIS Global Insights, 2009.

  22. Sales of Electric and Hybrids represent 70% of New Car Sales in 2035 Past Present Future Source: World Energy Outlook 2010, International Energy Agency

  23. Multiple Strategies “All in” – complete line by 2012 Past Present Future Renault-Nissan Alliance More conservative - one production model

  24. Multiple Strategies From niche market to mass production Past Present Future Will mass production be the beginning of the end for gas-power vehicles?

  25. Overcoming objections: Battery range • New designs: • Gasoline-powered battery generators Past Present Future • “LifeDrive” concept lightweight bodies

  26. Getting help: Incentives, open innovation • Government incentives: • Pushing companies to move into market now in order to take advantage of these incentives • But, majority of automakers believe EVs will still be too expensive for mass market for next 5 years. • However, 68% are entering into strategic alliances with others in value chain. Past Present Future

  27. Getting help: Incentives, open innovation • Seeing trends towards open innovation models to reduce costs, spread risk • Evolution of the current value chain - opening up potential for others to lead with technology innovation • Potential to disrupt currenttraditional markets (oil change centers, suppliers, etc.) • Creating opportunityfor new support services Past Present Future

  28. The EV market: What can be learned? • Innovative technologies never really die, they can stay dormant and activate when conditions are right • Adoption of Innovative technology requires that internal and external factors are aligned • Without the right infrastructure, EVs will not reach full market adoption • The bigger the innovation, the longer it takes to adopt • New innovations can be disruptive and create opportunities at the same time Past Present Future

  29. Getting help: Incentives, open innovation • Infrastructure? • New opportunities for revenue at local level (re-charge stations) • Standardizationfor automation (new technology opportunities) Past Present Future

  30. Q&A

  31. Back-up Slides

  32. EVs reduce Emissions (Full Life Cycle) Source: MIT Electric Vehicle Team. August 2010

  33. Electric Vehicle (EV) Driving Distribution Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. April 2010

  34. Average Commute Distances Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. April 2010

  35. Electric Vehicle (EV) Cost Validation Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. April 2010

  36. The Rebate Plan For Electric Cars • The Obama administration's proposed plan gives $7,500 to electric car buyers as a rebate instead of making customers wait for a tax credit. • Qualifying plug-in cars depending on the size of their vehicle's battery pack. Businesses get tax credits from $15,000 to $100,000 for buying plug-in trucks or other electric commercial vehicles. • Under the plan makes car dealers don’t incur the cost on the forefront as the laws are structured now Past Present Future

  37. London Electric Car Market Past Present Future

  38. London’s Goal to Lead Europe in Electric Cars Government offer subsidies up to £5,000 to encourage purchasing electric or plug-in hybrid cars Government has £250m plan to promote low carbon transport over the next five years, and £20m for charging stations and other necessary infrastructure. The Tesla Roadster and Mitsubishi i-Miev are the only vehicle eligible for the grant Past Present Future

  39. India’s Contributions to the Electric Car Market • The ministry of new and renewable energy announced a 20% financial incentive on the price of electric cars and scooters sold. • Under the plan every electric car sold in the next two years will be eligible for incentive. Past Present Future

  40. The Rebate Plan For Electric Cars • The Obama administration's proposed plan gives $7,500 to electric car buyers as a rebate instead of making customers wait for a tax credit. • Qualifying plug-in cars depending on the size of their vehicle's battery pack. Businesses get tax credits from $15,000 to $100,000 for buying plug-in trucks or other electric commercial vehicles. • Under the plan makes car dealers don’t incur the cost on the forefront as the laws are structured now Past Present Future

  41. London Electric Car Market Past Present Future

  42. London’s Goal to Lead Europe in Electric Cars Government offer subsidies up to £5,000 to encourage purchasing electric or plug-in hybrid cars Government has £250m plan to promote low carbon transport over the next five years, and £20m for charging stations and other necessary infrastructure. The Tesla Roadster and Mitsubishi i-Miev are the only vehicle eligible for the grant Past Present Future

  43. India’s Contributions to the Electric Car Market • The ministry of new and renewable energy announced a 20% financial incentive on the price of electric cars and scooters sold. • Under the plan every electric car sold in the next two years will be eligible for incentive. Past Present Future

  44. Getting help: Incentives, open innovation • Infrastructure? • New opportunities for revenue at local level (re-charge stations) • Standardizationfor automation (new technology opportunities) Past Present Future

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