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Office of Science NCSX Project Review of NCSX April 8-10, 2008 Cost and Schedule Ron Strykowsky

Office of Science NCSX Project Review of NCSX April 8-10, 2008 Cost and Schedule Ron Strykowsky. Topics. Baseline Formulation Process Basis and Assumptions Results Cost Contingency Schedule Staffing Project Control Processes EIR Summary Assessments Summary.

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Office of Science NCSX Project Review of NCSX April 8-10, 2008 Cost and Schedule Ron Strykowsky

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  1. Office of Science NCSX Project Review of NCSX April 8-10, 2008 Cost and Schedule Ron Strykowsky SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 1

  2. Topics • Baseline Formulation Process • Basis and Assumptions • Results • Cost • Contingency • Schedule • Staffing • Project Control Processes • EIR Summary Assessments • Summary SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 2

  3. Baseline Formulation Process • Job Managers Reviewed and Updated WAF’s (realistic not best case) • Additional scope per August Lehman review recommendations • Critically reviewed all job estimates to reflect current design maturity & experiences to date • Internal Engineering Department Review for Critical and Large Job Estimates • Assigned labor resources to tasks • Updated overhead and labor rates • Updated resource Loaded Schedule • Focus on critical path optimization • Off critical path scope (maximize free float) • Fit Program funding targets • Expanded and quantified project risks • Contingency analysis process (probabilistic approach) • March 13-14 PU Review • Submit New Baseline Proposal to OFES March 26 • Office of Science Review April 8-10 • Submit Baseline Change Proposal to OECM April 21 • External Independent Review May 20-22 • The WAF’s are the basis of all estimates • The resource loaded schedule is the master schedule and cost estimate data base SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 3

  4. Work scope organized and documented in the Work Breakdown Structure SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 4

  5. The WAF is the basis of all estimates Work Authorization Forms (WAF’s) • Disciplined and uniform approach for all work • Excel based spreadsheet including; • Table 0 – Work scope description and approvals • Table I – Design Labor (usually in man-hours or FTEs) – (priced in Primavera) • Table II – Materials and supplies - usually direct procurements of materials and components (direct dollars) (priced in Primavera) • Table III – Fabrication and assembly operations (combination of labor hours and material and supplies needed to support these operations) • Table IV – Estimate uncertainty and Risk • Job Manager assessment of design maturity/complexity and identification of residual risks that should be included in the Risk Register • Basis of estimate categorized and summarized in each WAF SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 5

  6. Key Planning Basis and Assumptions • ETC forward from February 1st, 2008 • Cost Incurred from April 1, 2003(MIE project inception) • Every Job Reviewed, most re-estimated • GPP and Infrastructure not part of MIE project.(Shown in the resource loaded schedule. Progress coordinated and tracked by Erik Perry) • Program BA constraints • Institutional Overhead Rates (CAS Compliant) • Standard work week 8hrs/day 5 days/ week (Exceptions; Field period assy (sta3 FPA#3, station 5, and Final Machine assy make use of select 2 shift operations). No overtime or Saturday work planned. Overtime and Saturday used to maintain schedule. • Holidays • Contingency Allocation by fiscal year(commensurate with risk & cost uncertainty) • Task durations - more detail on critical path and near term SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 6

  7. Scheduling - Process • Based on deliverables and/or tasks identified by the job managers • Input varied from resource loaded schedules to deliverables and resource estimate only • Established tasks, internal milestones (PDR’s, FDR’s, contract awards) • Task durations based on realistic resource loadings & crew sizes • Logically linked (2,170 tasks, 2700 links, 2900 individual resource loadings) • Non-critical path tasks scheduled within BA constraints with free float to critical path • Schedule iterated based on • Optimizing the critical path. (use of 2 shift operations, floor space for assembly tasks, crane utilization studies) • Maximizing free float for non critical path tasks (ie procurements) • Front end loading system designs • Annual contingency set-asides • Resource leveling exercises to optimize techs and key engineers (did not impact critical path or cost) SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 7

  8. Cost Basis - Resource types and Rates • Resource Types, labor and overhead rates Non-Labor Resource Labor Skills (hourly rates) Overhead and escalation rates SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 8

  9. Contingency - Process • Structured process - probabilistic risk analysis based (Monte Carlo Analysis) • Objective was to assess and analyze all areas of uncertainty and risk that might affect the cost and schedule estimates • Project Risk Registry key input (grown from 36 to 88 risks & monitored monthly) • Job Manager and Project Team input • Cost and schedule contingencies quantified • Contingency Allowance Range – 95%, 90% and 80% confidence levels analyzed Chris Gruber to provide comprehensive analysis SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 9

  10. Contingency – Results SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 10

  11. Results – Cost Reconciliation SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 11

  12. Results – Cost Detail by Job SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 12

  13. Results – Cost/Percent Completion SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 13

  14. Results – Program BA Profile • Delayed research start • Contingency distribution tempered by maximizing non-critical path free float (i.e. provide margin for vendor delays) SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 14

  15. Results – Schedule (Summary) • Critical path through field period assembly, final machine assembly and start-up operations • Major procurement of components as well as ancillary system have ample schedule margin (months off critical path) SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 15

  16. Critical Procurements Well Off Critical Path SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 16

  17. Results – Milestones • Milestones provide good metric of schedule progress • Distribution of milestones reasonable SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 17

  18. Results – Resource Loaded Schedule Total float in working days (~1 month = 21 days) Planning assumption: 1 shift per day or 2 shifts per day Cost (= hours x rates) Resource skill and hours (from WAF) EXAMPLE SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 18

  19. Staffing Requirements- Technicians TFTR D&D manpower profile for comparison Current level • Staffing requirements achievable and being satisfied SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 19

  20. Staffing Requirements- Engrs & Designers Needs being met with new hires to provide depth & backup SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 20

  21. Staffing Requirements- ORNL & Metrology SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 21

  22. Project Controls Systems Implemented • August 2007 Proposed Baseline used as interim baseline for tracking • Weekly Project Meeting • Safety • Weekly look-ahead schedule (RLM led discussion) • Follow-up actions • Monthly Project performance assessment meetings • Schedule progress • Level 2 & 3 milestones • Cost and Staffing • Issues • Risk Registry • ETC changes • Monthly Reporting • Management summary overview • Cost performance (EVMS) reports • Variance analysis at job level • Risk Registry • Trending (performance, contingency, ETC) • Milestones • Critical Path • RLM Prepared variance analysis (with help of Job Managers) • Monthly Director's Office and Princeton University Review • Customer meetings (IPT, Weekly, Quarterly) • 6-month bottoms-up ETC • Change Control • Engineering Change Proposals (ECP) • 5 processed since August 2008 (technical only) SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 22

  23. EIR Summary Assessments • 1. Resource loaded Schedule • Organized by WBS (refer to WBS and WBS Dictionary) • Resource estimate loading based on detail WAF (see detailed WAF packages). • Estimates basis; National Standards, Engineering Judgement/Experience, Estimates/Data from External Sources (e.g., W7X, ATF, etc.), Previous PPPL/ORNL Experience (e.g., TFTR, NSTX, PLT, etc.), Prototype Data/Test Results, Catalogue Price/Vendor Quote, Placed Contracts, Actual experience for NCSX Work • Task durations based on realistic manpower loadings and crew sizes. Balance of task durations based on reasonable loadings Schedule detail commensurate with schedule criticality (e.g. wbs 18 job 1810. minimum task duration 1 day). • Proposed baseline BCWS and contingency profile consistent with anticipated funding levels. • Shows estimate detail and priced cost estimate (see resource loaded schedule) SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 23

  24. EIR Summary Assessments (continued) • 2. Key Project Cost and Schedule Assumptions • Standard 8 hour/day 5 day/week work assumed except where 2 shift operations called out in resource loaded schedule. (see slide 10 & 11) • Institutional overhead and labor rates utilized (see slide 12) • Contingency quantified based on estimate uncertainty and risk using Monte Carlo simulation plus a subjective increment based on project management experience. (see slides 13 & 14 and detailed contingency analysis) • Contingency distributed annually consistent with needs. SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 24

  25. EIR Summary Assessments (continued) • 3. Critical Path • See critical path plot on wall • See detail Primavera predecessor & successor report for logic linkages • 4. Funding Profile • Project proposed baseline consistent with preliminary guidance (see slide 20) • 5. Work Breakdown Structure • Resource loaded schedule is organized by WBS (see WBS and WBS Dictionary) SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 25

  26. SUMMARY • Project has followed a disciplined path for updating its ETC highlighted by; • Formal & consistent basis of estimate • Independent reviews by PPPL engineering and PU • Focus on obtaining realistic estimates from job managers • Project has followed a methodical process for quantifying cost as well as schedule contingency. • Project has expanded its risk registry and incorporated into monthly status review meetings • Project has proposed a sound baseline cost estimate backed-up by a resource loaded schedule and detailed estimate basis. • Project is monitoring, reporting and communicating performance to stake holders. SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 26

  27. DETAILED STAFFING BACKUP SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 27

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