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Beijing | Brussels | London

Beijing | Brussels | London. Asia’s Energy Challenge EIAS Briefing Seminar Steve Sawyer, Secretary General Brussels, 17 April 2013. Beijing | Brussels | London. Outline: 1. Status of global markets 2. 5 year market projection

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Beijing | Brussels | London

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  1. Beijing | Brussels | London Asia’s Energy Challenge EIAS Briefing Seminar Steve Sawyer, Secretary General Brussels, 17 April 2013

  2. Beijing | Brussels | London Outline: 1. Status of global markets 2. 5 year market projection 3. Asia wind power 4. Key markets to 2020/2030 5. New Markets 6. Conclusions

  3. Beijing | Brussels | London C0 Members C1, C2 and C3 Members Associations GWEC – Uniting the global wind industry and its representative associations

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  6. Beijing | Brussels | London 2012 growth: 18.8% 16 yravg growth: 27.7%

  7. Beijing | Brussels | London 2012 growth: 10% 16 yravg growth: 26.5%

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  13. Beijing | Brussels | London Wind power in Asia • …hard to generalize, but… • Asia is generally poor in fossil resources, but very rich in wind and solar, in particular; • Government led approach, not ideological, not climate driven, but practical, driven primarily by: • Energy security • Price stability • Industrial development • Rapidly growing power demand (RE fast to deploy) • Resource efficiency (esp. water) • Where wind gets a foothold, solar will follow; • Asia is the primary driver of global growth in the RE sector, and this will increasingly be the case for the coming 15-20 years.

  14. Beijing | Brussels | London China • In 2012, wind surpassed nuclear as the third power source in China • Wind power potential is somewhere between 2.5 and 8 times total current electrical generation capacity • China has twice as much solar hot water heating capacity as the rest of the world combined…and solar PV is just starting to take off…

  15. Beijing | Brussels | London China

  16. Beijing | Brussels | London India • Until recently, driven more by the private sector through tax law than direct government incentive; • Moving away from tax shelter towards IPPs and more economically based approach • Energy security, access and speed of installation key factors • Resource assessment recently more than doubled; and NREL assessment is 2-3 times total current installed capacity • Government now pushing solar as well

  17. Beijing | Brussels | London India

  18. Beijing | Brussels | London OECD Pacific

  19. Beijing | Brussels | London Non OECD Asia (excl. China/India) • Taiwan – good resource, focussed on moving offshore to increase energy security and combat pollution; • Pakistan – excellent resource, energy hungry, strong pipeline despite security situation; • Philippines – excellent resource, finally sorting through some of the governance issues which have held the sector back; • Viet Nam – excellent resource, difficulties reconciling with private sector; • Mongolia – huge wind (and solar) resource, rapid GDP growth.

  20. WIND ENERGY POTENTIALS Beijing | Brussels | London • Mongolia has potential to be a major wind power producer. • Mongolia has enormous wind power resources; • Good-to-excellent wind resources equivalent to 1,100 GW of wind electric potential. The about 10 percent of Mongolian territory have been estimated to have excellent wind potential as more than 300 W/m2 and have a possibility to build and utilize wind farm with a capacity of 30-100MW. This amount of windy land, using conservative assumptions could support over 1.1 million MW of installed capacity, and potentially deliver over 2.6 trillion kWh per year.

  21. Beijing | Brussels | London SOLAR ENERGY ENERGY POTENTIAL • About 270-300 sunny days per year with an average sunlight duration of 2,250-3,300 hours are available in most of the territories of Mongolia. An annual average amount of solar energy is 1,400 kWh/m2/y with solar intensity of 4.3-4.7 kWh/m2 per day.

  22. Beijing | Brussels | London Total 13,000TWh/y Total Wind and Solar Resource Wind 8,000TWh/year Mongolia Solar(PV)5,000TWh/year Representing Almost 100% *Source: US National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Mongolian National Renewable Energy Center Asia Total Electricity consumption (2030)

  23. Beijing | Brussels | London Non OECD Asia (excl. China/India) Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, Chinese Taipei, Cook Islands, East Timor, Fiji, French Polynesia, Indonesia, Kiribati, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Laos, Macao, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, New Caledonia, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Tonga, Vietnam, Vanuatu

  24. Beijing | Brussels | London

  25. Beijing | Brussels | London Conclusions - Asian market driving global growth in RE sector; - Asia has excellent RE resources, esp. wind and sun - Asia is power hungry; - Market drivers all still in place, and increasingly prominent: energy security; cost stability; macroeconomic security; local economic development and job creation; local environment and climate; - Asia has few fossil resources except for Chinese (and Indian) coal, and it’s killing them – both literally and economically; - Post Fukushima, the shine has come off the nuclear genie; - Asia’s energy future seems to almost inevitably be renewable – but will it be in time?

  26. Beijing | Brussels | London For more information: Steve Sawyer steve.sawyer@gwec.net Thank you!

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