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Beijing | Brussels | London

Beijing | Brussels | London. Global Overview of New Markets Steve Sawyer, Secretary General EWEA Vienna, 6 Feb 2013. Beijing | Brussels | London. Outline: 1. Status of global markets 2. Short term outlook 3. New Markets

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Beijing | Brussels | London

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  1. Beijing | Brussels | London Global Overview of New Markets Steve Sawyer, Secretary General EWEA Vienna, 6 Feb 2013

  2. Beijing | Brussels | London Outline: 1. Status of global markets 2. Short term outlook 3. New Markets 4. Looking Ahead and Conclusions

  3. Beijing | Brussels | London

  4. Beijing | Brussels | London New investment in RES: Top 10 countries 2011, and growth on 2010 ($bn)

  5. Global Market Overview – Power Markets • Renewables accounted for nearly half of the estimated 208 GW of new electric capacity installed in 2011 • Renewable electric power capacity worldwide reached 1,360 GW (+8%) in 2011 • Renewable energy comprised more than 25% of global power generation capacity • 20.3% of global electricity was produced from renewable energy REN21 Renewables 2012 Global Status Report www.ren21.net www.ren21.net

  6. Beijing | Brussels | London 2011 growth: 20.3% 15 yravg growth: 27.7%

  7. Beijing | Brussels | London 2011 growth: 6% 15 yravg growth: 27.5%

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  13. Cumulative Growth in OECD and Non-OECD markets Beijing | Brussels | London

  14. Annual Growth in OECD and Non-OECD markets Beijing | Brussels | London

  15. Beijing | Brussels | London New Markets Latin America: Brazil and Mexico, followed by…? Africa: Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia; now Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopia. South Africa underway. Asia: Mongolia, Viet Nam, Thailand, Sri Lanka. Japan?

  16. Beijing | Brussels | London TOP 5 IN 2012 WP INSTALLED CAPACITY IN LAC 2012: 2063 MW: MEXICO: 801 MW NICARAGUA: 39,6 MW ~20 VENEZUELA: 30 MW ~20 1014,3 MW BRASIL ARGENTINA : 54 MW 16

  17. Beijing | Brussels | London LAC WindPowerinstalledcapacity status

  18. Beijing | Brussels | London LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN WIND POWER GROWTH FORECAST 2020 ( Beijing | Brussels | London

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  20. Beijing | Brussels | London Mexico has manyregionswithpremiumsitesforwindgeneration. Thesouthern Oaxaca Stateisprivileged. Source: Instituto de Investigaciones Eléctricas

  21. Beijing | Brussels | London Ethiopia 1,035 GW potential for exploitation The Master Plan recommends 51 wind projects (with total planned capacity of 6,820MW) and 5 solar PV projects (with total planned capacity of 135MW) up to the period 2030.

  22. Beijing | Brussels | London Mongolia • - >1,100,000 MW potential • World’s largest mining project in Gobi desert – no roads, no power and no water • GDP growth ~ 35%/y • First commerical project nearing completion

  23. Beijing | Brussels | London Looking Ahead (1) 2013 will be a tough year, with the single largest variable how far the US market will fall, how soon it will recover and what will be the trajectory; Canada and Mexico continue to grow. China, India – modest recovery from ‘off’ 2012 – new markets in Asia begin to contribute Europe – stable, with growth in offshore and eastern markets offsetting dire markets in S. europe Latin America – Brazil and Mexico plus…? Africa – market ‘returns’ in Morocco, Tunisia…Egypt? South Africa gets underway and Ethiopia continues to lead.

  24. Beijing | Brussels | London Looking Ahead (2) Rate of global growth will slow until and unless: - new markets fill the ‘gap’ left by lack of growth in OECD, or… - OECD economy recovers, and/or - new CO2 related legislation takes effect. Downward price pressure continues: - Oversupply and tough economic times mean margins are slashed to the bone and competition is fierce; - ‘Consolidation’ in manufacturing sector seems inevitable.

  25. Beijing | Brussels | London Looking Ahead (3) A global climate agreement will be fundamental for wind power to achieve its maximum potential, but for the short term: Uncertainty: - in international political landscape - in the future of the carbon markets - in ‘new’ climate-related funds Focus on national/regional legislation and markets Market drivers all still in place, and increasingly prominent: energy security; cost stability; macroeconomic security; local economic development and job creation; local environment and climate

  26. Beijing | Brussels | London For more information: Steve Sawyer steve.sawyer@gwec.net Thank you!

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