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FP7: Following UK-Danish-Swiss-French meeting

FP7: Following UK-Danish-Swiss-French meeting Need to deliver the “impacts” (need Russian partner) Timescales decadal to multi-century Up to 10Mecu funding Competing bid 1. Improved Risk Assessment

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FP7: Following UK-Danish-Swiss-French meeting

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  1. FP7: Following UK-Danish-Swiss-French meeting Need to deliver the “impacts” (need Russian partner) Timescales decadal to multi-century Up to 10Mecu funding Competing bid 1. Improved Risk Assessment Using current coupled climate models, eg HadCM3, extend QUMP ensemble to investigate parameter space, using Climate Prediction.net, construct emulators, probabilistic approach. 2. Integration of Observations Observations used to suggest improvements to the models. No new observations for ocean (could do some for Greenland ice sheet) but could use RAPID, OVIDE (Herle Mercier, Russian), Arctic Gateway cruise (65 N), DAMOCLES link (Nordic, Arctic observations). 3. Model Development Use high resolution ocean models (and process studies) to assess uncertainties in coupled models from various processes (eg. how important is it to properly include the processes for making climate predictions?). Processes could include: eddies, the importance of high-resolution b) Mixing, eg from internal waves, downslope flows

  2. c) deep convection, d) DWBC etc e) melting of Greenland ice sheet f) hydrology of Siberia 4. Metrics and Validation Need to test how good the models are, on a range of timescales. Paleo to be built in somewhere. Use cryosat for ice. Agreed to help with the writing: Denmark: Jens Christensen (DMI), Naja Mikkelsen (Geo. Survey) Swiss: Tom Stocker (EMIC, paleo) France: Anne-Marie UK: Peter Challenor and Adrian. Other partners, writers, how to take forward? Need to visit Brussels but no desk officer appointed yet.

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