NOAA’s Next Generation Strategic Plan NOAA Central Library Brownbag Discussion

1. NOAA’s Next GenerationStrategic PlanNOAA Central Library Brownbag Discussion Paul Doremus NOAA Director of Strategic Planningwww.ppi.noaa.gov August 21, 2009

2. The NOAA Strategic PlanSets the Course for the Agency The Next Generation Strategic Plan (NGSP) will: • Inform and respond to priorities of the new administration, based on long-term trends, challenges, and opportunities facing NOAA and the nation • Engage and respond to stakeholders and staff • Frame NOAA’s policy, programmatic, and investment decisions • Establish the basis for monitoring and evaluating NOAA’s performance The Strategic Plan will be updated every four years

3. What are the trendsthat will shape our future?How will NOAA develop strategy for the long- and short-term?How will regional input aid the development of NOAA strategy?

4. Trends in Polar Ice

5. U.S. Temperature Projections Lower Emissions Scenario Projected Temperature Change (°F)from 1961-1979 Baseline Mid-Century End-of-Century (2040-2059 average) (2080-2099 average) Source: USGCRP, Climate Change Impacts in the United States (2009), http://www.globalchange.gov

6. U.S. Precipitation:Change in Observed Average, 1958 - 2008 “Precipitation has increased an average of about 5 percent over the past 50 years. Projections of future precipitation generally indicate that northern areas will become wetter, and southern areas, particularly in the West, will become drier.” Source: USGCRP, Climate Change Impacts in the United States (2009), http://www.globalchange.gov

7. Potential Emissions Reductions “Wedge by Wedge” 7 Source: NRDC

8. Dow Jones Industrial Average 8

9. The Total Deficit or Surplusas a Share of GDP, 1970 to 2019 9

10. Issues Most Important to the Public

11. Who will be NOAA’s partners and customers? One Laptop per Child 11

12. Over the Long-Term, We See Multiple Trends thatare High Impact and Highly Uncertain

13. What are the trendsthat will shape our future?How will NOAA develop strategy for the long- and short-term?How will regional input aid the development of NOAA strategy?

14. Scenario Planning • No one can predict the future—but we can identify key forces and imagine how they might combine to form plausible alternative futures • Scenarios allow people and organizations to grasp complex interactions among economic, political, social, and environmental forces • Organizations use scenarios to choose goals and objectives that respond to long-term trends and uncertainties about the future

15. Using Scenarios to Address Strategic Questions

16. Strategic Questions for NOAA Focus Questions • What should NOAA's vision, mission, and goals be to serve society for the next 25 years? • What corresponding objectives and strategies should NOAA pursue in the next 5 years?

17. Summary of NOAA’s Scenarios for 2035

18. What are the trendsthat will shape our future?How will NOAA develop strategy for the long- and short-term?How will stakeholder and staff input aid the development of NOAA strategy?

19. Stakeholder and Staff Input is Central to NGSP Development Nov’08 – Jan’09 Jan’09 – Sep’09 Aug’09 – Nov’09 Jul’09 – Feb’10 Nov’09 – Feb’10 19

20. Input will be Collected and Assessed on a Regional Basis

21. 3 Fundamental Questions for Stakeholders and Staff • What trends will shape our long-term future? What long-term trends (scientific, technological, socio-economic, etc.) will be relevant to you, your community, or your organization over the next 25 years? • What challenges or opportunities will we face? In light of the trends that you have identified, what challenges or opportunities will you, your community, or your organization face over the next 25 years? • What should NOAA strive to accomplish? Given the long-term trends, challenges, and opportunities that you identified, what should the agency seek to accomplish in the next 25 years?

22. How to Be Involved www.noaa.gov/ngsp • Answer 3 long-term strategy questions: • What trends will shape our long-term future? • What challenges or opportunities will we face? • What should NOAA strive to accomplish? • NOAA’s Scenarios for 2035 is designed to stimulate thinking on the above questions. Comments are welcome on the key trends and dynamics in the Scenarios document itself. • Comment on draft NGSP during formal review phase.

23. REFERENCE SLIDES

24. Key External Forces in Scenarios for 2035

25. Types of Uncertainty that Affect NOAA and Three Possible Futures Nature and mix of economy Governance and Decision-Making Environment and Society Interaction Too Little, Too Late? Carbon Junkies Green Chaos Smart Growth vs Business As Usual Smart Growth vs Business As Usual Smart Growth vs Business As Usual Collaboration vs Fragmentation Collaboration vs Fragmentation Collaboration vs Fragmentation Harmonious vs Dysfunctional Harmonious vs Dysfunctional Harmonious vs Dysfunctional