Levi Brekke US DOI - Bureau of Reclamation

1. Levi BrekkeUS DOI - Bureau of Reclamation

2. Reclamation Mission The mission of the Bureau of Reclamation is to manage, develop, and protect water and related resources in an environmentally and economically sound manner in the interest of the American public.

3. Observed Hydrology & Vegetation Changes Less spring snowpack TRENDS (1950-97) in April 1 snow-water content at western snow courses Less snow/more rain Mote, 2003 Earlier greenup Earlier snowmelt runoff Figs. M. Dettinger (USGS) Cayan et al., 2001 Stewart et al., 2005

4. Implications for water supplies, water demands, operating constraints? • Supplies • warming • less snowpack  less controllable water supply • more landscape evapotranspiration (ET)  less runoff • precipitation change? could be + or - , help or worsen… • Demands • warming • Irrigation: increased seasonal water demand (longer season, more ET) • Electricity: increased summer demand, decreased winter demand • Operating Constraints • Environment – instream flow requirements? • Reduction in cold-water supplies • Flood Protection – storage reservation requirement? • All other things equal, warming leads to greater area contributing runoff during western winter storm events – greater winter reservoir drafts? • Storm intensification could be + or -, worsen or help…

5. Key Challenges for Reclamation • Understand how climate variability and change can affect Western water supply and demand, and Reclamation delivery of water given operational constraints (e.g., environmental constraints, flood constraints) • Bring science and technology to bear on the needs of water resources managers • Address goals of internal programs and authorizations where climate change is a factor

6. Notable Activities • Understanding Impacts & Uncertainties • Scoping Guidance: • “Level of Analysis” Options Paper • list options, pros, cons andgeneral recommendations for using climate change information in long-term planning (e.g., NEPA, ESA, general studies) (Art Coykendall, acoykendall@usbr.gov) • Tool Development: • Regional Literature Syntheses • Living document, annual updates, summarize CC implications for water resources, Western 17 states (J. Mark Spears, jspears@usbr.gov) • http://www.usbr.gov/research/docs/climatechangelitsynthesis.pdf • Downscaled Climate Projections web-archive • Collaboration with SCU, LLNL, USGS/Scripps, Climate Central, USACE (T. Pruitt, tpruitt@usbr.gov), 112 CMIP3 projections, 1950-2099, contiguous U.S. , monthly, 12km x 12km resolution) • http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/

7. Notable Activities • Understanding Impacts & Uncertainties • Putting Guidance and Tools to action: • Ideally: we’d have well-trained practitioners, familiar with climate change concepts, how to apply it in planning, how to communicate results • Reality: We have few internal practitioners trained in using projections of future climate – limits capacity of scoping and doing. We also lack refereed “best practices” (e.g., which climate models? which projections? how to relate projections to planning assumptions?). Literature offers many methods, but little guidance. • Reaction: • Learn by doing. • Conduct exploratory studies, use literature methods, guiding thoughts on method choice: Simple. Manageable. Defendable. • Refine methods, on-ramp to actual planning (e.g., NEPA, ESA) • E.g., MP 2008 ESA consultation (http://www.usbr.gov/mp/cvo/OCAP/sep08_docs/Appendix_R.pdf)

8. Notable Activities • Coalition Building between Science & Management • Objectives: • stay abreast of new science, usher mature methods into practice • inform researchers on management community needs • Vehicles: • DOI Climate Science Centers & Landscape Conservation Coops. • Information on Reclamation involvement: • Landscape Conservation Cooperatives - Avra Morgan (amorgan@usbr.gov) • Climate Science Centers – Curt Brown (cbrown@usbr.gov) • Climate Change and Water Working Group, or CCAWWG ( • Currently six federal members: NOAA, USGS, USACE, USEPA, FEMA, Reclamation • Current activities • Training Program development (goal: build trained practitioner capacity) • User Needs documents (goal: motivate research to address needs) • Approaches Workshop - Aug 2010 (goal: develop guidance on methodologies) • Information: Curtis Brown (cbrown@usbr.gov) , Chuck Hennig (chennig@usbr.gov)

9. Notable Activities • Recent Science Efforts funded by Reclamation R&D • Flood Frequency Estimation within projections of Future Climate • Framework described in Raff et al. 2010. Framework applications are being explored by Reclamation Dam Safety Office (DSO) and TSC Flood Hydrology Group (John England, jengland@usbr.gov). • Comparison of Hydrology Models for Climate Change applications • Focused on four surface water hydrologic models (VIC, PRMS, SacSMA/Snow17, TMWB), calibrate/validate across contrasting historical climates. Publication in development. Contact: Levi Brekke (lbrekke@usbr.gov) • Application of new daily downscaling technique: Bias Correction Constructed Analogs • Useful for describing projected changes in storm patterns (sub-monthly occurrence) and diurnal variability (relevant to portraying watershed ET losses, ecosystem conditions) • Collaboration with USGS/Scripps, SCU, Climate Central, LLNL, USACE. • Data in development, to be served at DCP Archive mentioned earlier. Contact: Tom Pruitt (tpruitt@usbr.gov)

10. Notable Activities: Basin Study Program • WaterSMART Basin Studies • http://www.usbr.gov/WaterSMART/basin.html • Fed / non-Fed cost-shared studies on future supply & demand imbalances, management strategies to address imbalances, stressors including climate change. • FY10 study grants: Colorado River Basin, St Marys / Milk River Basin (MT), and Yakima River Basin (WA). FY11 study proposals under review. • West Wide Risk Assessments (PL 111-11 Secure Water Act) • periodic reports to Congress (first report due 2011) • Focus: climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation options, various resources • Basins: Colorado, Columbia-Snake, Klamath, Missouri, Rio Grande, Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Truckee • program approach: “West Wide Risk Assessments” • Hydrology: consistent west-wide assessment approach • Demands, Operations, other Resources: promote basin-to-basin reporting consistency, but expect assessment to proceed with basin-specific approaches… • Program Information: David Raff, draff@usbr.gov