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Russia and the US

Russia and the US. Population: Them: 150 million and shrinking; US: 300 million and growing (why immigration won’t work for them) GDP: Them 1.29 trillion; Avg. annual growth = 10%; 2009 contraction = 10% US: 13.4 trillion

kathleen-hensley
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Russia and the US

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  1. Russia and the US • Population: Them: 150 million and shrinking; US: 300 million and growing (why immigration won’t work for them) • GDP: Them 1.29 trillion; Avg. annual growth = 10%; 2009 contraction = 10% US: 13.4 trillion • Nuclear warheads (deployed/ total). Them: 4718 / 13000 US: 2623 / 9400 (China: 180 / 240) • Military spending; Them: 59 billion (4% global, 4%GDP) US: 607 billion (around half global; 4%GDP)

  2. A quick review of past relations… • Why didn’t we like them? Why didn’t they like us? • What interests and strategies did we have in common? Anti-imperialism, deterrence, BOP, centralization of domestic power, bipolarism • What role did we play in their “democratic” transition (and its failure)? • Spending pressures • Europe or US as model? • Staying out of the way • Are Russians ready for democracy and a market economy? Did we push them? Not guide them? • Did we make a mistake by backing Yeltsin?

  3. US-RUSSIAN RELATIONS TODAY: THE REALIST SCHOOL • The core argument: We still have many strategic interests Russia that trump their becoming a democracy • They aren’t our “friends:” Balancing doctrine…Or are they: biopolarism in Europe with US helping the USSR to balance Europe • A weaker, democratic Russia more threatens us than a strong undemo. one. • Does the oil rule apply? • Their nukes require realism • The Treaty of Moscow: fewer bombs but still on hair trigger status • Dissolution of the ABM treaty; debates about missile shields • Russian new generation of MIRVs • The Red Army’s threat to Europe vs. the threat to itself • Legitimate security concerns will lead to a predictably aggressive Russia • 50 million Russians in the “near abroad” • NATO and EU expansion into the Baltics, Poland, & the perhaps the Ukraine (this is what Georgia was about) • Chechnya and the war on terrorism

  4. US-RUSSIAN RELATIONS TODAY: THE LIBERAL PERSPECTIVE IN THE REGION • The core argument: Russia matters tremendously for the Third Wave of Democracy • Putin the terrible: He is a model for Post-Soviet autocracies and we need to change him if we can • Is it a wise idea to have different rules for non-western former-Soviet states? • WTO and a Russian “special relationship” with NATO would make Russia less aggressive… but their behavior must be changed first • A democratic, transparent Russia will be more stable economically… we should pressure for democracy in the region • US should be willing to compromise strike power in return for reducing our threat Russia • The US should try to aid Russian development because its emphasis on its primary economy will harm US interests over the long run

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