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Sweden, Swedes, and Energy

Sweden, Swedes, and Energy. Erik Hollnagel. Two countries. Kiruna 67 89 N. Sapporo 43 05 N. Ystad 55 43 N. Vital statistics. Sweden (2001). Japan (2001). Population (million). 8.9. 127.21. Area. 449 750 km2. 377 835 km2. Population density (person/km2). 19.79. 336.65.

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Sweden, Swedes, and Energy

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  1. Sweden, Swedes, and Energy Erik Hollnagel

  2. Two countries Kiruna 67 89 N Sapporo 43 05 N Ystad 55 43 N

  3. Vital statistics Sweden (2001) Japan (2001) Population (million) 8.9 127.21 Area 449 750 km2 377 835 km2 Population density (person/km2) 19.79 336.65 GDP (billion 95 US$) 293.95 5647.68 GDP (PPP) (billion 95 US$) 215.55 3125.88 Electricity Consumption* (TWh) 142.45 1005.86 CO2 Emissions **(Mt of CO2) 48.05 1132.31 Electricity Consumption / Population (kWh/capita) 16013 7907 CO2/Population (t CO2/capita) 5.4 8.9 CO2/GDP (kg CO2/95 US$) 0.16 0.2

  4. Sweden – population density (1989) Half the population of Sweden is concentrated to 3% of the territory. There is a sharp contrast between the fairly well populated southern third of the country with the three main urban areas of Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö and the northern two thirds. Here we find the majority of people in the coastal area, along the rivers and a few places inland of old agricultural areas or mining districts. The geographic pattern of population distribution has been fairly stable through the last 250 years, only that the concentration to urban centres has grown immensely. Around 30% of Sweden, an area twice as large as Belgium and Netherlands together is virtually uninhabited, although its natural resources, forest and water-power are fully developed.

  5. Average temperatures, January

  6. Maximum snow depth during winter

  7. Average temperatures, July

  8. Average hours of sunshine Kiruna Östersund Lund Jan 5 26 37 Feb 62 74   64 Mar 139 131 105 Apr 183 169 166 May 232 233 231 Jun 266 246 235 Jul 243 228 223 Aug 159 187 212 Sep 110 115 141 Oct 67 72 94 Nov 18 38 52 Dec 0 17 32 TOTAL: 1494 1536 1592

  9. Economy Japan Sweden

  10. Total primary energy supply (2001)

  11. Electricity production in Sweden Hydroelectric 47 % Normal production ca 65 TWh el (50 TWh - 75 TWh). Installed effect about 16.100 MW in total. Nuclear 46 % 11 reactors (Ringhals 3 PWR+1 BWR (3.550 MW), Forsmark 3 BWR (3.075 MW), Oskarshamn 3 BWR (2.210 MW), Barsebäck 1 BWR 600 MW). 2003 production - 65,5 TWh Fossil + other sources: 7 % Ca 7.400 MW combined heat-power plants of which 2.500 MW for district heating. Wind (0.6 TWh), wave, solar, fuel cells,

  12. Total production of energy (S)

  13. Total production of energy (J)

  14. Electricity generation by fuel (S)

  15. Electricity generation by fuel (J)

  16. Nuclear power referendum (1980) Referendum following TMI (1979). Line 1: Close down nuclear power considering energy needs, without endangering employment and public welfare. Line 2: As Line 1, with the proviso that future energy installations must not be privately owned. Line 3: Immediate stop for new plants and dismantling of all NPP within 10 years. Referendum only advisory for government. 75,6 % voter turnout. Line 1 = 18,9 %. Line 2 = 39,1 % Line 3 = 38,7 %. Government decided that all 12 reactors should be allowed to function for 25 years. Other referenda in Sweden: 1922 – prohibition 1955 – introduction of right-hand driving 1957 – pensions 1980 – nuclear power 1994 – EU membership 2003 – introduction of Euro

  17. Attitudes to nuclear power After the referendum in 1980, the government decided to close down nuclear power by 2010. What is your view of NPP in Sweden today? Feb May Nov Mars Nov May Nov June Dec May Dec 1990 1990 1990 1991 1991 1992 1992 1993 1993 1991 1994 Immediate stop of nuclear power 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 6% 5% 7% 6% 8% 7% Close down nuclear power before 2010 11 12 8 9 12 10 12 14 11 12 11 Close down nuclear power by 2010 24 21 18 20 23 24 25 22 29 27 27 Close down nuclear power but not by 2010 30 33 33 31 27 32 30 29 29 27 30 Use nuclear power, do not close down 27 26 31 30 30 22 23 24 20 21 23

  18. Attitudes to nuclear power Do you have a definite opinion in on this matter or are you in doubt? March Nov May Nov June Dec May Dec 1991 1991 1992 1992 1993 1993 1994 1994 Immediate stop of nuclear power 90% 90% 73% 85% 77% 85% 87% 83% Close down nuclear power before 2010 76 72 66 66 71 67 65 64 Close down nuclear power by 2010 51 52 56 53 46 55 59 55 Close down nuclear power but not by 2010 63 64 59 57 63 53 58 61 Use nuclear power, do not close down 84 84 82 85 77 78 86 83

  19. Attitudes to nuclear power Today nuclear power accounts for about 50% of the Swedish electricity production. What do you think should be used to replace nuclear power? (Two most attractive alternatives) Hydroelectric 45% Wind 43 Solar 34 Energy savings 25 Natural gas 24 Biomass 14 Oil 5 Import of electricity 4 Coal 1 Uncertain, don’t know 3

  20. Global warming Arrhenius, S. (1895). "On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground", Stockholm Physical Society. Based on one year of calculations using equations from Jean Baptiste Fourier. Predicted that a doubling of CO2 levels would cause a warming of around 5 to 6 °C. This almost exactly mirrors the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's most recent assessment. Global warming predictions were neglected, but Arrhenius received the Nobel Prize in Chemistry 1903 (eletrical conductivity of salt solutions).

  21. District heating Origin can be traced to Roman inventions. By the 16th and 17th centuries, fuel conservation, smoke abatement, and safety were large factors in design of heating apparatus, as seen by a 1623 proposal to install district heating in London. Separate boiler plants and underground piping were used by English factories in the 1790s and by 1820 was fairly common. Waste heat from factories was used to warm public baths by the 1830s. The Crystal Palace in London had district heating in 1851, at least two steam district heating systems were built in the USA in 1853. District heating on a commercial basis came into use in 1877 in New York. In Sweden, the first municipal district heating system was started at Karlstad in 1948. Further district heating systems were started at Norrköping and Malmö in l95l, Göteborg, Sundbyberg, and Stockholm in 1953, Linköping and Västerås in 1954, Örebro in 1956, and Borås in 1959. All these district heating systems were planned and built for the purpose of utilizing heat from future CHP-plants. In these 10 pioneer towns, oil-fired CHP-plants were also built during the 50's and the 60's. In order to promote and discuss issues of common interest, the Swedish District Heating Association was founded in 1949.

  22. Biogas in Sweden EU targets for non-fossil fuel EU target for 2020 corresponds to 7 TWh in Sweden. About 20 mil. m3 biogas sold in 2002 (0,2 TWh). Linköping largest biogas distributor for vehicles in Europe (3,6 milj. m3 biogas 2002). Currently around 40 filling stations in Sweden. Target is 100 stations by 2007.

  23. Deregulation (Nordic countries) Selling electricity: More than 450 companies (of which 130 in Sweden). The five largest (Vattenfall, E.ON/Sydkraft, Fortum, Hafslund and Statkraft) has a 36% market share. Producing electricity More than 350 producing companies. The five largest (Vattenfall, E.ON/Sydkraft, Fortum, Statkraft and PVO) have a 57 % market share. Distribution grids A total of almost 550 companies. The five largest (Vattenfall, E.ON /Sydkraft, Fortum, Nesa and Hafslund) have a 35% market share. Deregulation began in 1996. It coincided with five years with sufficient water supplies (= RAIN). As a consequence prices dropped to around 10-12 öre/kWh. The following years (2002 and 2003) were very dry, and the effects of that are still tangible. In consequence, the base price of electricity rose to around 30 öre/kWh (spot market)

  24. Water level in Nordic reservoirs Årsproduktion Barsebäck 2 Elanvändning svensk massa- och pappersindustri 2003, 21,6 TWh Danmarks totala elanvändning 2003, 32,6 TWh

  25. Electricity prices 1970-2004 Flexible price contract, 1990 level

  26. Green electricity (renewable sources)

  27. Green electricity (renewable sources)

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