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Summary of Scientific Studies. The environmental consequences of a “regional” nuclear war would cause massive global famine Regional nuclear arsenals contain less than 1% of the explosive power in deployed U.S.-Russian arsenals
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Summary of Scientific Studies • The environmental consequences of a “regional” nuclear war would cause massive global famine • Regional nuclear arsenals contain less than 1% of the explosive power in deployed U.S.-Russian arsenals • A large nuclear war – or even a large preemptive nuclear strike – would leave the Earth uninhabitable
Unless deterrence works perfectly, forever. . . Deterrence will someday fail
Existing nuclear arsenals are fundamentally incompatible with continued human existence
Conclusions from Science • Reductions of nuclear arsenals to a few thousand nuclear weapons will not significantly reduce the danger they pose to humans • The abolition of nuclear arsenals and nuclear weapons is the only sure way to prevent their eventual use in nuclear conflict
What must be done? • Commence preliminary negotiations on a Nuclear Weapons Convention (NWC) for the phased, verifiable, irreversible and transparent elimination of nuclear weapons
Why a NWC? • The NPT alone cannot achieve the elimination of nuclear arsenals or weapons • 40 years of a minimalist approach to nuclear disarmament has proven inadequate • The NPT cannot remain as a two-tiered system of nuclear haves and have-nots • Non-Proliferation cannot ultimately be prevented through military intervention
Why a NWC? • A Nuclear Weapons Convention would strengthen the NPT, in the same way that U.S.-Russian bilateral arms reductions have strengthened it • NWC is a means to preserve the NPT and implement nuclear disarmament • Consistent with a vision of “a world without nuclear weapons”
NWC is Compatible with Intermediate Steps • NWC consistent with the CTBT, the FMCT, and the conclusion of further bi-lateral arms reduction treaties between the U.S. and Russia • NWC would complement rather than supersede these goals • Such negotiations could occur simultaneously with NWC negotiations
Overwhelming Support for NWC • 124 nations voted for a UNGA resolution calling for the immediate commencement of negotiations leading to a NWC (2009) • NWC is the First point of the UN-Secretary General’s five-point disarmament action plan • 76% of people globally support the abolition of nuclear weapons through a comprehensive, verifiable treaty
Conventions Exist for Other Categories of Weapons • Comprehensive treaties have been negotiated to outlaw other entire categories of weapons: Biological Weapons Convention Chemical Weapons Convention Convention on Cluster Munitions Mine Ban Treaty
NWC would build trust • NWC would promote greater transparency and accountability through establishment of systems needed to verify elimination of nuclear arsenals • International monitoring system to ensure compliance (routine and surprise inspections, on-site sensors, radionuclide sampling, satellite photography, etc.)
NWC would bridge the Disarmament – Non-Proliferation gap • General obligations in the NWC would apply equally to all parties • Convention approach would allow the engagement of parties outside the NPT
NWC would require: • Provisions on entry into force • Provisions on compliance and enforcement • A comprehensive verification regime backed up by a strong implementing authority • Irreversibility and transparency • Resources for dismantlement, destruction, storage and disposal of nuclear materials
Basic Elements of a NWC • Prohibit the development, testing, production, stockpiling, transfer ands use of nuclear weapons. • Include phased reductions of existing nuclear arsenals in conjunction with a comprehensive verification regime • Prevent production of weapons-usable fissile material and address deliver vehicles
Basic Elements of a NWC Identify steps and stages for the reduction and elimination of nuclear weapons: • Removal of all weapons from prompt launch and deployment • Removal of nuclear warheads from delivery vehicles • Disabling nuclear warheads • Place fissile material under international controls and safeguards
Begin NWC Negotiations Now • Commence preliminary negotiations on a Nuclear Weapons Convention (NWC) for the phased, verifiable, irreversible and transparent elimination of nuclear weapons
Existing nuclear arsenals are fundamentally incompatible with continued human existence