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Thunderstorm Ceiling/Visibility Climatology

Thunderstorm Ceiling/Visibility Climatology. Mary-Beth Schreck , L. David Williams, and Kenneth R. Cook. Aviation Forecast Climatology Studies. BUFKIT: Forecasting Wind and Wind Gusts from Momentum Transport Winds Observed Visibility and Ceiling During Snow

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Thunderstorm Ceiling/Visibility Climatology

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  1. Thunderstorm Ceiling/Visibility Climatology Mary-Beth Schreck, L. David Williams, and Kenneth R. Cook

  2. Aviation Forecast Climatology Studies • BUFKIT: Forecasting Wind and Wind Gusts from Momentum Transport Winds • Observed Visibility and Ceiling During Snow • Thunderstorm Climatologies in Various Forms • Fog Climatologies • Observed Visibility and Ceiling During Thunderstorms • Verification Suffers in Summer

  3. Goal • Since convective season is when verification suffers (cig/vsby): Give forecasters some probabilities of occurrence based on climatology

  4. Process and Results • For the 30 year period ending 2006, found all observations with TS for April – August for KRSL, KSLN, KICT, KCNU • From these, found # of occurrences (hours) for each station for the following visibility categories (SM): • <0.5 • 0.5 – <1.0 • 1.0 - <2.0 • 2.0 - <3.0 • 3.0 – 5.0 • >5.0 • Found % of each category (i.e. How many times does each occur) as % of total of all TSRA Fog obs • These were done for each station for each month

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  11. Process and Results • At this point, we have isolated TS obs that contain a MVFR or lower visibility. Using these data we then determined how many of these contained a MVFR or lower ceiling. • These were plotted as a percentage of the total number of TS obs w/ MVFR vsby (i.e. with a ceiling)

  12. Process and Results

  13. Process and Results • Out of these (the ceilings that are below 3000 ft.): • Found maximum, minimum, 1st and 3rd quartiles for each visibility category by station by month. • Plotted results as “box and whiskers” plot

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  19. Conclusions • Visibilities gradually increased through the season • By July: 75-80% of TS obs had visibilities >5SM. • TS w/ MVFR or lower visibilities that contained a MVFR ceiling also decreased through the season. • By July, it was a statistically “rare” event to have MVFR ceiling and visibility with a thunderstorm.

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