Nuclear and Radiological Threat Reduction role of radiation measurements

1. Nuclear and Radiological Threat Reductionrole of radiation measurements Amir Mohagheghi Physicist/Program Manger Global Security and Cooperation Center Sandia National Laboratories September 16, 2014 Albuquerque, NM SAND2014-17625 PE Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

2. Presentation Outline • National Security Issues: What is the problem? • Strategies to Combat WMD Proliferation • Role of Radiation Measurements • Radiation Measurements Cross Calibration (RMCC) • Other Examples

3. What’s the Problem? What’s the Solution? • “. . .by developing atomic energy for peaceful uses, you reach the nuclear weapon option. There are not two atomic energies.” David Bergman, former Chair, Israeli Atomic Energy Commission • Goal: Reduce the risk that states can acquire the capabilities to develop nuclear weapons; Maintain a separation between peaceful and non-peaceful uses of nuclear energy • Reduce the risk that states might believe that their neighbors were acquiring the capabilities to develop nuclear weapons • Elements of a nuclear weapons capability • Material • Technology • Expertise • Motivation • Solutions • Restrict access to key elements • Monitor the use of key elements • Reduce the motivation Restricting the dispersion of sensitive materials and technologies can limit opportunities and reduce misperceptions

4. The Civilian Nuclear Fuel Cycle: A Review Plutonium and high-enriched uranium might be used to produce nuclear weapons.

5. Presentation Outline • National Security Issues: What is the problem? • Strategies to Combat WMD Proliferation • Role of Radiation Measurements • Radiation Measurements Cross Calibration (RMCC) • Other Examples

6. National Security DriversReduce the WMD Threat • Presidential Initiatives: • • Speech on nuclear security, Prague • Four year plan to secure nuclear materials • Secure borders and interdict illicit trafficking • WMD proliferation and Zero nukes • • Cairo speech, Egypt • S&T Engagement with the Developing World • USG National Strategic Plans: • •Nuclear Posture Review • Preventing nuclear proliferation and terrorism • Enhance regional security architectures • Lead international efforts to bolster the NP regime • •National Security Strategy • Reverse the Spread of Nuclear and Biological Weapons and Secure Nuclear Materials • Advance Peace, Security, and Opportunity in the Greater Middle East • Invest in the Capacity of Strong and Capable Partners • Secure Cyberspace • • NNSA Strategic Plan • Secure Vulnerable Nuclear Materials • Centers of Nuclear Security Excellence

7. National Security Issues in the Middle East Robert Gates on Iraq Developments in Iraq over the next year or two will, I believe, shape the entire Middle East and greatly influence global geopolitics for many years to come. December, 2006 • Issues: • Arab Spring • Rise of Islamist Groups • Israeli Arab Conflict • WMD Proliferation • Terrorism and Failed States • Energy Security • Expansion of nuclear energy • Resource Management • Water

8. Middle East Geo-Political Background: Understanding the Context

9. Middle East: Language Families

10. Middle East: Ethnic Groups

11. Middle East: Religions

12. Middle East: Cultural and Historical Zones

13. Different strategies for dealing with proliferation Stages in Proliferation Motivation Development Achievement Retirement Respond to Threat - diplomacy - offensive military and covert activities - emergency response - threat assessment / detection • Reduce Demand • Security assurances • arms control • - regional security • - penalties for violating norms • - minimize utility of WMD • Control Supply • - export control regimes • - IAEA safeguards • - protection of weapons and tech • limit production of weapons material • Dismantle Weapons • arms control / transparency • international verification • safe, secure material disposition • - environmental restoration Strategies to prevent, rollback, or mitigate consequences of proliferation

14. Nonproliferation Regime: role of radiation measurements EXBS and INECP UNSCR 1540 CTBT

15. Presentation Outline • National Security Issues: What is the problem? • Strategies to Combat WMD Proliferation • Role of Radiation Measurements • Radiation Measurements Cross Calibration (RMCC) • Other Examples

16. Radiation Measurements Cross Calibration (RMCC) Project • All countries in the Middle East have radiation measurement capabilities associated with: • Power and research reactors • Radioactive sources in medicine, commerce, industry • Responding to accidental or intentional radiation releases • Environment, health and safety • Detecting the presence of radioactive sources • Preventing the illicit use of radiological materials • Disposing of radioactive sources • Improving and standardizing nuclear monitoring and measurement capabilities in the Middle East are essential elements of developing an approach to such concerns

17. The First Step • As a first step, develop a set of internationally recognized standards for laboratory radiation measurements in the Middle East • The project consists of • Signup for the DOE MAPEP • Receive test samples • Analyze and report • Follow-up with regional workshops to discuss the results and identify technical assistance needs • Participate in targeted studies by the IAEA labs in Seibersdorf • Annual workshops

18. RMCC Workshops Kuwait 2004 Oman 2007 Qatar 2005 Bahrain 2008 Bahrain 2010 Jordan 2011 and 2013 Morocco 2012

19. The RMCC Project Benefits • Increased confidence in data quality across the region • Availability of a network of qualified labs for radiological measurements • Build up the capacity in the region to produce reliable radiological data • Improved scientist-to-scientist communication • Provides a mechanism for sharing of agreed upon information • Enables scientists in the region to work cooperatively to create indigenous solutions to the problems in the region • Fosters the development of a network of scientific experts in the region • Training Opportunities • Austria – The IAEA Labs in Seibersdorf • Germany – Federal Bureau for Radiation Protection • USA – Sandia National Laboratories • Regional Opportunities

20. The RMCC Project – Next Steps • Regional Ownership: The Middle East Scientific Institute for Security (MESIS) • Hosting next work shop in Amman, Jordan, October 2014 • Formation of a Regional Advisory Council • First Meeting: Amman, Jordan, October 2014 • Proposed Technical Cooperation Projects with the IAEA and CTBTO • Spin Off Project: • The Middle East Environmental Radiation Detection System

21. Presentation Outline • National Security Issues: What is the problem? • Strategies to Combat WMD Proliferation • Sandia’s Global Security Programs • Role of Radiation Measurements • Radiation Measurements Cross Calibration (RMCC) • Other Examples

22. International Treaties and Negotiated Agreements Example: Considering a treaty involving nuclear warheads START Radiation Detection Equipment Warhead Technology Monitoring Project The TOBOS simulated storage facility in St. Petersburg, RU. Storage Monitoring Collaboration Field Trials Radiation Detection Equipment

23. Global Cooperative Threat Reduction Example: Global Threat Reduction Initiative Baikal Threat BN-350 60th at Baikal Consequence BN-350 Casks on pad (November 15, 2010) Prevention

24. Global Cooperative Threat Reduction Example: Gulf Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Institute (GNEII) Regional Scoping Trip: November 2009 LOI Signed: 16 Mar. 2010 Pilot Course Begins: 20 Feb. 2011 MOU Signed: 20 Feb. 2011

25. Wax colorant Chemical form Wax material fingerprint Paper origin Lead metallurgy Impurity elements Residual radionuclides Lead isotopics Ampoule material U & Pu isotopics Age-dating Nuclear forensics is positioned at the center of nuclear security recommendations for nuclear and other radioactive material out of regulatory control: IAEA Nuclear Security Series #15 Traditional forensics Nuclear forensics Interdicted HEU Morphology Highly-enriched uranium (~3.96 grams uranium oxide) Trace plutonium (2.8 parts per billion) Source: IAEA Nuclear Series #15

26. Safeguards Mission “International accounting and verification system designed to ensure that fissile material is only used for peaceful purposes.”

27. Nuclear Security: Neutron scatter camera • Fast neutron imaging spectrometer • Variable plane separation allows tradeoff of effective area, image resolution An MLEM-reconstructedneutron point source image. Source: SAND # 2010-5245P and SAND 2011-9007P

28. Antineutrino Applications • Source: D. Reyna, Antineutrino Factsheet • Attributes • Independent measurements of thermal power and fissile inventory • Non-intrusive with no connection to plant systems • Continuous remote monitoring • Highly tamper resistant and cannot be shielded • Potential Applications to Treaty Verification • Reactor operations monitoring • Complement the CTBT’s International Monitoring System

29. Thank You For Your Time

30. Vertical Proliferation Horizontal Proliferation A New Kind of Proliferation States with dual use technology States with advanced manufacturing capabilities Increased sophistication of weapons Greater numbers of weapons Non-state actors Indigenous Development of Nuclear Weapons State possessing Nuclear Weapons State(s) without Nuclear Weapons