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GNSS National implementation plans

GNSS National implementation plans. Index. Purpose of the plans Content of the plans CBA Main outcomes. Purpose of the plans.

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GNSS National implementation plans

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  1. GNSS Nationalimplementation plans

  2. Index • Purpose of the plans • Content of the plans • CBA • Main outcomes

  3. Purpose of the plans To provide an instrument to countries to support them in the elaboration of a “roadmap for the implementation of EGNOS use in the civil aviation” from the state viewpoint • Development of a “generic” tool • Its elaboration for 8 countries The plan is an enabler: what has to be done, who and when, costs and benefits 3

  4. Content of the plans (1) • State of play: • Main stakeholders/decision-makers • Status/plan of air navigation infrastructures (non-GNSS, GNSS, EGNOS) • Present use and operations • Strategy and plans • Service needs (driven by present use/operations, strategy/plans, traffic growth) 4

  5. Content of the plans (2) • Analysis of impacts: • Identification of impacts generated by EGNOS in terms of: Air transport services quality and demand, Industrial benefits, Environmental benefits, Strategic benefits • Prioritization and ranking (from 1 to 9) to evaluate the social benefits 5

  6. Content of the plans (3) • Economical feasibility: • CBA (cost, economic benefits, social benefits) • Output (financial flows, indirectbenefits split, sensitive analysis) 6

  7. Content of the plans (4) • Action plan: • Actions (what has to be done and why, who has to do and when) • Recommendations 7

  8. SIRAJ plans (1) Development of National implementation plans for EGNOS services implementation (*): • In Civil Aviation • For 8 countries • 10 years time lag (2011 – 2021) (**) (*) sub-regional elements will be considered (**)time lag decided on the basis of a trade-off to ensure robustness 8

  9. SIRAJ plans (2) Countries: Algeria Côte d’Ivoire Gabon Jordan Mauritania Morocco Saudi Arabia Senegal 9

  10. SIRAJ plans (3) It is a proposed roadmap for EGNOS exploitation in Civil Aviation, in the addressed country, in the 10-years period 2011 – 2021. The GNSS Implementation Plan takes into account the particular needs of the country in the Civil Aviation domain, and the social and economical benefits that the use of EGNOS will generate. 10

  11. SIRAJ plans (4) Following a scoping out of the state of play, of navigation infrastructure needs and of the possibility to introduce EGNOS technology, the GNSS Implementation Plan elaborates the country shared policy to facilitate the EGNOS introduction and use. For this reason, its preparation required various iterations in close interaction with the country stakeholders, for reviewing, discussing and commenting it. 11

  12. SIRAJ plans – Main sources • Info from countries (answers to questionnaire) • Info from METIS (MEDA countries, non-MEDA countries) • ACI (Airports Council International) Global Traffic Forecast 2008-2027 • SIRAJ outcomes. e.g.: • Telespazio market analysis on various secondary sources • Telespazio analysis of impacts (see slide) • Assumptions shared with EU ANSP on the basis of EU model purposely customized for the SIRAJ countries 12

  13. SIRAJ plans – Country status in civil aviation • Main stakeholders for Civil Aviation (i.e. decision-makers) • State of play of Air Navigation infrastructure (non GNSS and GNSS): • Current status • Planned evolutions • Country strategy in Civil Aviation (i.e. available plan and regulations, Conference/Commissions, ICAO Regions and Regional Groups, Bilateral agreements of interest) 13

  14. SIRAJ plans – Service needs • Service needs: • Market size (country aviation market size, number of airport and traffic) • Use of GNSS/ GNSS strategy (i.e. operation needs, status/ plan for GNSS procedures development, strategy in relation to GNSS use) • Opportunities and issues (peculiar characteristics of the country in relation to SBAS LPV, airports not equipped with conventional navigation aid infrastructures,…) 14

  15. SIRAJ plans – Analysis of impacts Evaluation of impacts generated by EGNOS in the country reliable estimation of social benefits EC “IMPACT ASSESSMENT GUIDELINES” (SEC(2009) 92) for the investigation of the potential effects of EGNOS service introduction Impacts prioritization and ranking (inputs from questionnaire and sub-regional elements) estimation of social benefits 15

  16. Economical feasibilityCBA • Initiative: exploitation of EGNOS in the Civil Aviation domain • EGNOS SoL service • SBAS LPV application • At country level and from the state point of view • 10 year period, time lag 2011-2021 • Costs • Benefits (direct and indirect/social) • Financial flows • Key drivers (sensitivity)

  17. Economical feasibilityValue chain EGNOS Operator EGNOS SoL SP Industries Research entities State ANSP Airline Exploitation of EGNOS in the Civil Aviation domain: • EGNOS service - EGNOS SoL service • Business case: SBAS LPV application • At country level and from the state point of view Institutional/Safety-of-life market: • ASNP - Regulated entity (acting for the Public Authorities) • Airlines - final users • Industries/Research entities - Map providers, Terminal/ receivers manufacturers/ integrators, IT companies, Certification entities, Procedure designers, etc.

  18. Economical feasibilityCBA methodology Costs for the state: • EGNOS SoL opex • Capex of the local EGNOS monitoring infrastructure Benefits for the state: • Direct benefits: taxes • Indirect benefits (based on impact analysis and prioritization) CBA outcomes: • Yearly financial flows and NPV • Sensitivity analysis 10 year period Time lag 2011-2021

  19. Economical feasibilityCBA model

  20. Economical feasibilityCBA assumptions - EGNOS costs (1) Capex (i.e. the costs for the necessary infrastructures, incl. certification) = 0 Opex (i.e. the cost for operating the EGNOS SoL service) > 0 (*) , afforded by the states. It is assumed that operation costs to provide EGNOS SoL to a certain area are shared among the states included the area. This implies an agreement on cost-sharing between the states, then each state identifies a suitable origin of funds decides and/ or applies its specific charging mechanism (how to charge, who to charge). States pay for EGNOS opex starting from the year T0 of EGNOS SoL FOC

  21. Economical feasibilityCBA assumptions - EGNOS costs (2) EGNOS opex evaluation: • METIS min/ max value for EGNOS opex for MEDA countries (Algeria, Jordan and Morocco) • For non-MEDA countries on the basis of the EGNOS usage (i.e. number of landings) compared to Morocco - states are divided into 3 categories considering their traffic compared to Morocco (less, equal, major)

  22. Economical feasibilityCBA assumptions - EGNOS FOC • EGNOS FOC T0 tentative dates just for CBA elaboration purposes: • 2012, for MEDA countries (i.e. Morocco, Algeria and Jordan) in line with the METIS assumptions • 2015, for African/ non-MEDA countries (i.e. Gabon, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, Senegal) • 2018, for Middle-East/ non- MEDA and Arabic Peninsula countries (i.e. Saudi Arabia) EGNOS adoption, 1 year after EGNOS FOC in the best case for all countries

  23. Capex of the local EGNOS monitoring infrastructure (1) capex of the EGNOS local monitoring infrastructure/ system (for independent monitoring of the signal, for interference monitoring…) • Evaluation using: • Using METIS costs for MEDA countries • For non-MEDA countries on the basis of the number of airports compared to Morocco It is assumed that the capex of such monitoring infrastructure/system is afforded by the State, while the opex is afforded by the ANSP starting from the year before the introduction time

  24. Capex of the local EGNOS monitoring infrastructure (2) Today such infrastructures is not mandatory, nevertheless it has to be considered that, according to ICAO, each State is responsible for the Air Navigation Service provision over its Country. Additionally the ICAO SARPS standards state the any State that approves GNSS-based operations, also based on EGNOS use, should ensure the recording and retention of the corresponding relevant data. Than, it can be expected that the States will equip themselves of their local infrastructure/ system for monitoring the quality of the GPS/EGNOS service provided over the country area

  25. Economical feasibilityCBA assumptions – Benefits (1) Direct benefits consider the economic revenues for each state directly resulting from civil aviation activities. Their estimation is done by applying to the identified tax base (the value of the foreseen investments) the relevant country tax profile

  26. Economical feasibilityCBA assumptions – Benefits (2) • Indirect/ social benefits are evaluated by using the shadow price methodology applied in METIS, with further elaborations, specifically tailored on civil aviation and customized for each country (to take into accounts the relevant specificities). • Evaluation varies from: • number of landings • GDP • benefit importance using the impacts prioritization and ranking (air transport services quality and demand, industrial benefits, environmental benefits, strategic benefits)

  27. Min/max +5 years +/- growth +/-1 % Economical feasibilityOutput example – sensitivity • Dependence of the economic feasibility from key parameters, to: • Take into account of the assumptions • Support the definition of actions

  28. Action plan • Opportunities • Recommendations • Proposed actions, actors, and timing

  29. Algeria (1)

  30. Algeria (2)

  31. Côte d'Ivoire (1)

  32. Côte d'Ivoire (2)

  33. Gabon (1)

  34. Gabon (2)

  35. Jordan (1)

  36. Jordan (2)

  37. Mauritania (1)

  38. Mauritania (2)

  39. Morocco (1)

  40. Morocco (2)

  41. Saudi Arabia (1)

  42. Saudi Arabia (2)

  43. Senegal (1)

  44. Senegal (2)

  45. Main outcomes –Key messages (1) • Heterogeneous state-of-play and strategies: • Different Conference/Commissions, ICAO Regions and Regional Groups • Sub-regional/ bilateral agreements for some countries (e.g. AEFMP, EMCAA, cooperations) • ICAO Regional Groups responsible for strategies for GNSS • Each State responsible for implementation

  46. Main outcomes –Key messages (2) • Heterogeneous service needs, in terms of: • Market needs (air traffic movements/ trends) • GNSS based operations implementation/ adoption (e.g. GNSS RNAV/RNP approaches) • Awareness/ knowledge (e.g. questionnaire feeding) • Interest • Status/ plan of implementation of ICAO Regional Groups strategy

  47. Main outcomes –Key messages (3) • Tool for countries and EU • Results to be evaluated under regional considerations • Robustness depends on the assumptions • Re-elaboration/review the assumptions as long as they are defined/understood: • Plan time lag • EGNOS costs/FOC • Traffic (direct benefits) • Impact/economical parameters (indirect benefits) • Airports implementation/evolution • Cost sharing/allocation

  48. Main outcomes –Recommendations (1) • Consolidate EGNOS service coverage in terms of technical, economical and planning aspects, programmatic/institutional/legal framework • Only in few cases EGNOS costs have a significant impact on the CBA • The delay in adoption has a significant impact on the CBA in all cases (*) (*) Recommendation is to anticipate development of enablers to reduce the delay of adoption, including implementation of strategy

  49. Thank you! Antonella Di Fazio antonella.difazio@telespazio.com 49

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