Mid-Term Review

1. Mid-Term Review Naval War College Theater Security Decision-Making Dr. Coty Keller

2. Key Concepts • Tools • Framework for Moral Decision-making • JMP Framework • DIME methodology • Bartlett Donut • Strategy Documents • Resource Allocation and Force Planning process • Organizational Behavior NWC/TSDM Course Review/Synthesis Dr. Coty Keller

3. Defense Resource Allocation and Force Planning process • Complex interaction among 5 subsystems • Outputs include • war plans, • strategies, • future years defense plans • authorization/appropriation of $, and • weapons/information systems • Process is based on a rational model, but influenced by organizational behavior and politics • Iterative and cyclical process • You may participate in this process from any number of service or joint organizations including COCOMs NWC/TSDM Course Review/Synthesis Dr. Coty Keller

4. 5 Subsystems of Defense Resource Allocation Process NWC/TSDM 8 & 9 Dr. Coty Keller

5. PLANNING PROGRAMMING BUDGETING AND EXECUTION Integrated Priority Lists (IPLs) PLANNING OUTPUTS National Military Strategy National Security Strategy Fiscal Guidance DoD Comp Chairman’s Program Rec Defense Planning Guidance STRATEGY National Defense Strategy DoD TO SVC’s Agencies Quad Defense Review PROGRAMMING Chairman’s Program Assess SERVICES AND AGENCIES POM Build Resource Management Decisions FYDP Program and Budget Review BUDGETING AND EXECUTION DoD COMPTROLLER DoD COMPTROLLER SECDEF DoD President’s Budget Submission Budget Estimate Statement Budget Build OSD & OMB NWC/TSDM 8 & 9 Dr. Coty Keller * DAWG = Deputy’s Advisory Working Group

6. Logic of Force Planning Areas of Military Competition • Strategy • Ends • Ways • Means Requirements What the strategy says the military must do Operational Challenges The security environment and obstacles to achieving our goals • Technology • Doctrine • Organization Operational Concepts Ideas for meeting operational challenges / future military competition • Programmed Forces • Size • Mix Required Capabilities Capabilities to implement operational concepts • How Much is Enough? • Required capabilities in geopolitical context (scenarios) • Budget Constraints • Risk • Operational • Force • Budget Force Characteristics Generic capabilities across the spectrum of conflict

7. Org Behavior Concept that helps explain or predict security policy-making decisions by understanding • an organizations’ culture • relationships between bureaucracy, political leaders and • the oversight mechanism of congress The Org Behavior Perspective • Government a collection of organizations/sub-organizations • ACTIONS are the OUTPUTS of the Organizations • Organizations respond to challenges or problems in terms of IMPACT (INTERESTS/THREAT/OPPORTUNITY) on the organization • Organizations avoid uncertainty and risks • Respond by ROUTINE or SOP • Decisions are SATISFACTORY VICE OPTIMAL NWC/TSDM Course Review/Synthesis Dr. Coty Keller

8. Organizational Essence “The organization’s essence is the view held by the dominant group within the organization of what its missions and capabilities should be. Related to essence are convictions about what kinds of people – with what expertise, experience, and knowledge – should be members of the organization.”Halperin, Clapp, and Kanter: pg. 27 • An organization favors policies and strategies that align with its essence. • An organization struggles hardest for the capabilities that it views necessary to its essence. • An organization resists efforts to take away the functions that it views as part of its essence.

9. Organizational Behavior Traits* • Organizations act as filters • Projects that demand that existing organizational units depart from their established programs to perform un-programmed tasks are rarely accomplished in their designed form • Projects that require coordination of the programs of several organizations are rarely accomplished as designed • Projects that bring together programs of several organizations will feature an interaction of routines, producing unforeseen and possibly dangerous consequences. • Where an assigned piece of a problem is contrary to existing organizational goals, resistance will be encountered • Leaders can expect incomplete, even distorted, information (from the leader’s perspective) from each sub-organization organization about its part of the problem. *Norton, Richard J. “Organizational Behavior.” Newport, R.I.: Naval War College faculty paper. April 2007. NWC/TSDM Dr. Coty Keller

10. Benefits of Org Behavior Perspective • More Effective Decisions: by compensating for for flaws in Rational Model of Decision-making • Helps Explain Decisions • Enables us to Anticipate/Predict Positions/Choices of Sub-Organizations • Heads-Up for Ethical Dilemmas (Anticipate when what is “Right” may be at odds with Organizational Interest/Essence) NWC/TSDM Dr. Coty Keller

11. Other Tools • Framework for Moral Decision-making: aid to help you do the right thing in a complex ethical dilemma • JMP Framework – visualization of the players and elements involved in national security policy making, from the point of view of the staff officer • DIME methodology – useful construct for categorizing national security strategies by Diplomatic, Information, Military and Economic means • Bartlett Donut – depicts the dynamic interaction of the main considerations in strategy formulation NWC/TSDM Course Review/Synthesis Dr. Coty Keller

12. NWC/TSDM Dr. Coty Keller

13. Leader Boss Staff Officer Joint Military Policy Framework U.S. Elements Global Elements Policy Decision/Action Law Society Culture Sovereignty Int’l Law / Norms Religion Ideology Culture Authority/ Responsibility Mission Resources Congress Executive/ Interagency States Nations DoD Org. Behavior Culture Filters Joint Staff COCOMs Non-State Actors Process Op. Factors Structure Knowledge Individual Institutional Services IGOs Media State / Local NGOs Media Staff Environment Public Others Others Complex Interactions

14. Bartlett Donut RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS STRATEGY MEANS ENDS SECURITY ENVIRONMENT Ways RISK NWC/TSDM 8 & 9 Dr. Coty Keller