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Two main objectives

PREV ’AIR : An operational system for large scale air quality monitoring and forecasting over Europe http://www.prevair.org. Two main objectives. Diagnostic and prospective studies in the field of atmospheric air pollution at the European scale

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Two main objectives

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  1. PREV ’AIR :An operational system for large scale air quality monitoring and forecasting over Europe http://www.prevair.org

  2. Two main objectives • Diagnostic and prospective studies in the field of atmospheric air pollution at the European scale • Technical support to the French Ministry for Ecology in the framework of international negotiations about transboundary air pollution (implementation of integrated policies aiming at reducing pollutant emissions in Europe) • Delivery of a daily information related to air quality over France and Europe • To complement the national air quality monitoring network (~40 AASQA, >2000 sensors, >700 stations)

  3. A A S Q A Architecture of the PREV’AIR System Low and high resolution meteorological forecasts • 3D Chemistry Transport Models... • CHIMERE / IPSL-CNRS-INERIS • MOCAGE / METEO-FRANCE • … Driven by meteorological forecasts • AVN / NCEP global data (+ MM5 higher resolution forecasts) • ARPEGE, ALADIN • Other input data • Emissions inventory • EMEP • EDGAR • Boundary concentrations • MOZART+GOCART • MOCAGE • NRT observations data from local AQ monitoring associations (BASTER / ADEME database...) Chemical forecasts Forecasts (maps) Numerical AQ forecast data Observations (maps), scores Analysis (maps) BASTER Other NRT data

  4. 41 French AQ related organisms (AASQA) "real time" national database BASTER O3 NO2 SO2 PM10 PM2.5 680 monitoring stations hour Local servers ADEME AASQA web sites National web site PREV ’AIR NATIONAL LOCAL The BASTER Near Real-Time Data Base

  5. Domains Over Europe Over France Horizontal resolution: 0.5°x 0.5° 0.15° x 0.1° Vertical resolution: 8 levels from surface pressure up to 500 hPa Meteorological forecast data AVN / NCEP for initialisation and boundary conditions MM5 higher resolution forecasts (36km) Chemical scheme MELCHIOR reduced (~45 species, ~120 reactions) Aerosol module Dust, PPM, SOA, nitrates, sulphates, ammonium, Water Contents 25 reactions (aqueous and heterogeneous phase) Other model configurations: meteorology: ECMWF, ARPEGE / ALADIN BC: MOZART, LMDZ-INCA, GOCART See http://euler.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere The CHIMERE Model Set-Upin PREV’AIR

  6. Domains Global Model / Over Europe / Over France Horizontal resolution:4°x 4° 0.5° x 0.5° 0.1° x 0.1° Vertical resolution: 47 levels from surface pressure up to 5hP Meteorological forecast data ARPEGE and ALADIN Chemical scheme RACMOBUS(118 species, 381 reactions) No aerosol module The MOCAGE Model Set-Upin PREV’AIR

  7. Available at D+0, 01-06 h LT • Daily peak and averaged concentration maps • D+0, D+1, D+2 • Pollutants: O3, NO2, particulate matter • Global scale, Europe, France PREV’AIR Outputs: Daily Forecasts User part: - Output from both models over Europe and France - In summer, statistically adapted O3 fields O3, peak forecast(µg/m3) 20040729 D+0 O3, peak forecast(µg/m3) 20040729 D+0

  8. PREV’AIR Outputs: Scores Summer 2004, PM10 daily mean concentrations User part: - Maps - Time series Summer 2004 O3 daily peak concentrations

  9. PREV ’AIR Outputs: Numerical Forecast Data • PREV’AIR numerical data • Extraction over user-defined domains • Available through the Internet for AQ related institutions (user accounts) • Applications • 3D data: BC for local AQ simulations : ESMERALDA (Ile-de-France area), AIRES (PACA region), … • 2D data: for AQ monitoring and forecast (interpolation, statistical modelling) • Feed-back from PREV’AIR users • Meetings with AQ networks for system improvement • Day-by-day debriefing about forecasts ...Up to now, about 40 users

  10. PREV ’AIR Outputs: Maps of NRT observations • Maps of measured daily peak and mean concentrations: • O3, NO2, PM2.5 and PM0 • Observations performed between 0h and t • For D+0 and the previous six days Daily mean concentrations of PM10 at surface measured on the 12nd of September 2004

  11. 03 simulation corrected by observations (µg/m3) • Modelled concentrations corrected with observations: • Observations collected in real-time for 150 stations • Statistical adaptation: kriging method • Available at D+0 for D+0 and D-1 PREV ’AIR Outputs: Analyses O3 simulation (µg/m3) O3 corrective field (µg/m3) July 31, 2004

  12. PREV’AIR Analyses: Scores Summer 2003, O3 daily peak concentrations 13 rural stations 67 suburban stations 179 urban stations

  13. Ozone, averaged peak (µg/m3) during summer 2003 Ozone, # of hours of exceedance of the 180 µg/m3 threshold during summer 2003 PREV ’AIR Outputs: Annual Budgets Ozone, # of hours of exceedance of the 240 µg/m3 threshold during summer 2003

  14. Future developments • Coming soon: • Set up of summer 2005 forecast season • Implementation of the last CHIMERE version (V200501G) with LMDZ-INCA BC • Better accounting for observations: • Analyzed concentrations to initialize the forecast • Feasability study for PM10 concentrations analysis • Feasability study for data assimilation of 3D data (LIDAR, satellites) • Ensemble forecast: • Multi model forecast (hybridization methods)

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