Fall 2014 Enrollment

1. Fall 2014 Enrollment Fall 2015 Projections Mike Hoff Institutional Research & Effectiveness 9.25.14

2. Outline • Recap Fall 2014 Projections • Provide Fall 2015 Projections • Tennessee Promise • Populations Impacted by Promise • Populations Not Impacted by Promise • Discuss Potential Response To Promise

3. The ModelMarkov Chain

4. Markov Chain • Is a time-series model that looks at past practice to predict future outcome • For enrollment modeling, Markov chain tracks students, by status, from year1 to year2 allowing the researcher to calculate an recruitment rate and dropout rate by class • The recruitment and retention rates are applied to the current standing of year2 to students, adding in new inputs by class for year2, to calculate enrollment for year3

5. Markov Chain - Continued • Markov chain was chosen because • It is used by other similar institutions, both in-state, and out-of-state • It uses only institutional data • Studies have shown it is accurate for 1 year projections • Population based models were rejected due to reliance on external projections • ARIMA and other SAS projections were rejected because of complexity without increased accuracy

6. Markov Chain – Assumptions • Assumes a consistent external environment • Medicine and Pharmacy Enrollment is projected as stable

7. Fall 2014 Projection Review

8. 2014 Projection vs Actual

9. 2014 Projection vs Actual • The model was 99.99% accurate • This does not mean we didn’t influence enrollment at ETSU this past year • This just means that all things being equal we performed as the model would expect

10. Credits Generated

13. Fall 2015 Projection

14. Fall 2015 Projection

15. Fall 2015 Projection • UG/GR enrollment 13,685 • 1% drop from Fall 2014 • MED enrollment projected at 288 • Pharm enrollment projected at 324 • Total Projection 14,297

16. Fall 2015 Projection • This model assumes we do everything the same and the external environment remains stable • Two things we know: • The external environment will not remain stable • We will improve

17. Enrollment Goals

18. Fall 2014 Growth Goals

19. Fall 2014 Growth Outcomes

20. Fall 2015 Enrollment Goal • The primary objective is to maintain Fall 2014 actual enrollments, thus compensating for any impact of Tennessee Promise • Also, to continue the pursuit of the growth agenda metrics that have been identified to represent a stretch goal of 15,000

21. Fall 2015 Enrollment Goals

22. Submit Growth Plans That… • Plans: • Must outline plan for both flat enrollment and growing to 15,000 students • Must be college specific • Must be transparent in depicting college engagement for bona fide improvement tactics • Will be assessed using the overall enrollment goals presented • Each plan must clearly and convincingly make the case for achieving a defined percentage of the college recruitment and retention goals • Must include both recruitment and retention initiatives • Will be used to evaluate, by college, positions requested pending available funds • Should depict college assessment of risk

23. Don’t Limit Your Plan • Consider • Pedagogy & Delivery Systems • Curriculum • Bridge Courses • New Markets (International & Domestic) • New Collaborations • Alternative Schedules & Calendars • New Partnerships • New Student Populations • With distinctive career goals • Students who cannot come to main campus (ex. E-Learning, International, Out-of-state, etc.) • Trade impacted workers • Service to others

24. TENNESSEE PROMISE

25. What is Tennessee Promise? • “Last dollar” grant to cover all tuition at TN community colleges, TCAT’s or 4-year institutions offering an Associate Degree • Available to all TN high school graduates beginning with class of 2015 • No GPA or ACT/SAT requirements to qualify • Includes mentoring Program

26. Requirements/Deadlines • Apply for Tennessee Promise by November 1 • Submit FAFSA by February 15 • Attend first mandatory meeting coordinated by partnering organization – March 1 • Attend second mandatory meeting coordinated by partnering organization – May 31 • Complete first 8 hours of community service – August 1

28. POPULATION IMPACTED BY PROMISE

29. ETSU First-Time Freshmen • Total First-Time Freshmen Population • 2,001 • Population Impacted by Tennessee Promise • Total Tennessee First-Time Freshmen Fall 2014 • 1,694 (85% of Total First-Time Freshmen) • Target group has an ACT between 18-24 • 887 Fall 2014

30. Projected Impact *Based on the November 1st Registration Deadline

31. POPULATION NOT IMPACTED BY PROMISE

32. Populations Not Impacted • Border County • Regional Enrollment • Out-of-State • E-Rate • Veterans • Transfer Students • International Students • Graduate Students • Retained Students

39. One Year Retention and Graduation

41. Graduate

42. Retained Students • Improving retention is imperative to growing enrollment, and graduation • From Fall 2013 to Fall 2014 we lost 430 students with no financial hold and a GPA of 3.0 or higher • Finding away to keep even half of these students could be enough to manage the potential impact of Tennessee Promise

43. Current Initiatives To Mitigate TN Promise • Improve Advising • Hiring 14 Professional Advisors • Expanding use of the EAB Student Success Collaborative • Restructure Scholarships • Presentation by Kathy Feagins

44. Closing Thoughts

45. Closing Thoughts • Fall 2015 Enrollment Projected between 14,178 and 14,583 • Just to maintain the level of enrollment achieved in Fall 2014 is going to require purposeful and effective recruitment and retention efforts • Our response to Tennessee Promise is two-pronged • Limit the loss of Tennessee First-Time Freshmen • Grow Populations not impacted by Tennessee Promise

46. Discussion