Climate Change and Agriculture impacts-facts vs. fiction

1. Climate Change and Agriculture impacts-facts vs. fiction . By Dr. Pervaiz Amir Muzaffarabad 18 th March 2008

2. Storyline • Climate Change is modifying agriculture in unprecedented ways. As temperatures rise, precipitation drops -expect crop calendar dynamics, newer risk management, enterprise diversification and adaptation. • Some say its Water and Management Stupid! Is it so ! • Substitution potential • Does irrigated agriculture have all the answers 10 ton yields the new promise- what about mountain maize , wheat, vegetables, forestry and livestock • Why stay in a long drawn struggle of hardship and drudgery- Are their choices for the farmers, marginalized groups and landless • Youth of tomorrow face the cc challenge- they do not wish to stay in agriculture- at least not in its present state • Living with Probabilities and risky choices-its not a bed of roses • Thinking about a new agriculture enterprise model and going for planned change

3. Coverage of this presentation • Agriculture Productivity on Line • Constraints to Production (geo-physical, environmental, economics) • Climate Change- practical adaptation • Risk Management and Diversification • Technologies/Solutions • Farmer’s viewpoint- Response is cc fact or fiction

4. Climate Change ScenarioPakistan • Projected temperature during 2020’s is expected to rise 1.31 +/- 0.19 degree c; summer temperatures 1.18+/-0.12 and winter 1.43+/- 0.09. Temperatures are also projected for the 2050’ and 2080’s ( these are in the range of 4-6 degrees or more) • Likewise 2.79+/- 2.94 in annual precipitation; 5.31 +/- 4.13 during summer and -1.62+/- 2.64 % in winters. This would mean that we would have higher rainfall in summers but it would be quite variable. However, even more serious is the issue of winter rains that are likely to be reduced by 1.62 percent. • Wheat yields down by 15-18% in Southern areas, more droughts and some flooding in rivers. Water reduction unto 40% • Satellite imagery of vegetative cover and its behavior over last 10 years seen at SUPARCO last week does not give a good prognosis of the future • For Now it is adaptation and soon it will be mitigation • Climate Change is here and is going no where-agriculture and water are the two areas that will suffer the most– much of what we are hypothesizing about is hypothetical and less is pragmatic.

5. Factors Constraining Productivity in Kashmir • High rainfall with changing patterns in precipitation, dew and frost • Extreme events, drought periods, • Climate changes with high variation T and P • Small parcels of land, mostly tilled by womenfolk • Open grazing systems and marginalized group relying on forest, grasses for livelihood • A disturbed land resource following earth quake, populations still in distress with reduced numbers

6. Little if any modern agriculture infrastructure • Livestock is dominant activity and based • on pastoral system with negative impacts on trees • Costly and high risk inputs like fertilizer, pesticides • and weedicides not used and from 2007/8 onwards major quantum jumps • Infrastructure challenges for a changed agriculture

11. Livestock Feed or Fuel

25. Green House for Nursery and vegetables

26. Low Cost Plastic Tunnel

27. The Road Ahead A clear realization that cc is a reality not a fiction Realizing AJK Comparative Advantage- turning constraints into opportunities Going for a market based agriculture and specializing into crops that are adaptive to climate change. Investing in new environments and production technologies Gaining Clarity between and within enterprises Keeping youth in agriculture Institutional Constraints- i.e. micro financing at times “Small is beautiful”

28. Thank You !