ESC 110: Global Climate Change: Facts & Fiction

1. Olympic rain forest doomed by global warming, report fears Friday, February 8, 2002 By ROBERT McCLURE SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER Olympic rain forest isn't going away Tuesday, February 26, 2002 DAVID L. PETERSON RESEARCH SCIENTIST ESC 110: Global Climate Change: Facts & Fiction Chapter 18 of text

2. GCC: Fact or Fiction From your text: One of “the two most immediate global environmental threats humans face is climate change caused by greenhouse gases. This is caused by the introduction of large quantities of human-produced gases into the atmosphere.” Are these statements true?Does everyone agree with them?

3. GCC: Givens • Climate will change (because it has changed). • Carbon dioxide levels are increasing in the atmosphere • The greenhouse effect is real (and important). • How will the climate change and how much will the climate change? • Is the change natural or due to human activities? GCC: Questions

4. 2 GCC: Greenhouse effect • The greenhouse effect is caused by traces gases in the atmosphere (water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, others) • 1.4oF • -17oC • 59oF • 15oC • “Steady”

5. GCC: Changes in a greenhouse gas

6. GCC: Changes in a greenhouse gas Increasing Pattern Biological activity Human activity

7. GCC: Why is the greenhouse gas changing? Human activity?

8. GCC: Consequences of Increased CO2 • If CO2 has increased, • CO2 is a greenhouse gas and • Greenhouse gases warm the earth then • The earth should be warmer! Is it? • Yes • But • Surface • Trend • Solar • Aerosols

9. GCC: Present Temperature Change to Historical

10. GCC: Present Temperature Change to Historical

11. GCC: Climate Change: Predictions MODEL • Four responses: • A disaster • The best news ever • Do not know enough • Natural cycles dominate Know CO2 will continue to increase Greenhouse effect should increase Therefore temperature should increase

12. GCC: Implications on Plants Species responses Disturbance regimes

13. GCC: Implications on Plants: How do we know?

14. GCC: Let’s assume we need to do something, then what? • Conservation • Alternative energy sources • Consumption • Regulate carbon dioxide emissions (Kyoto Protocol) • Carbon tax • Use plants (trees) to take up or sequester the carbon.

15. GCC: Solutions with plants Could the earth’s biological systems accumulate sufficient CO2 to balance emissions? Anthropogenic release +6.3 - +7.0 Net uptake by terrestrial vegetation -0.7 Net uptake by the oceans -2.3 Gain by the atmosphere +3.3 - +4.0 1 Giga ton = if the carbon was solid, 81 Safeco Fields and if the carbon was in the form of pure carbon dioxide, 392 Safeco Fields

16. GCC: Solutions with plants • To balance the net gain of 4 Gt of carbon by the atmosphere through planting young forests, and, • assuming an increase in production of 5 t ha-1 over the vegetation replaced, e.g., replacing an older, natural forest with a forest crop, • requires over 109 hectares of young forest, ~14 times the size of Washington State. • Balancing the CO2 input from the US alone would require an area ~3 times Washington State ( ~1.2 times the size of California)

17. Global Climate Change: Where are we? Olympic rain forest doomed by global warming, report fears Friday, February 8, 2002 Human contribution Climate has changed Climate change has consequences Involved in a massive experiment You are the observers of this experiment. You will need to address when something should be done & how.