Implications of Changing Limits for Organic Fertilization Application - the German Case Study

1. Norbert Röder, Alexander Gocht, Anja Techen and Bernhard Osterburg Implications of Changing Limits for Organic Fertilization Application - the German Case Study Farm Level Modelling Workshop 17.05.-19.05.2012, Dublin, Ireland

2. Outline • Motivation • Research question • Material & Methods • Results • Conclusion

3. Why limit N / P surpluses? Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions N-Gaseous Emissions • Greenhouse gas (N2O) • Ground level ozone (summer smog) N- Eutrophication • Impairment of drinking water (NO3) • Negative impact production value (forestry) • Marine ecosystems  algae bloom  negative for fishery & tourism • Reduction of biodiversity P-Eutrophication • Lakes & rivers  negative for tourism & recreation

4. The trends (N-pollution of German rivers) Point Sources Urban areas Drainage Surface run off Ground water Erosion Athmosph. deposition Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions Settlements Agriculture Source: Umweltbundesamt 2009 (MONERIS, Fuchs et al. 2009 in UBA Texte 45/2010)

5. The trends (National German farm gate balance) Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions

6. The trends (Fertilizer Sales) Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions

7. Why doing this study? Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions Agriculture is the main emitter (emissions linked to nutrient surplus) Regulation getting tighter Plans to refine German legislation to • reduce N and P surpluses • fully incorporate manure from Biogas production

8. Why do farmers use fertilizer excessively? Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions Mineral fertilizer is relatively cheap N is volatile (no storage in the soil) Fertilization when plant’s demand is uncertain (weather risk) Quality standards demand excess fertilization (e.g. baking wheat) Economies of scale, scope and clusters • Spatial segregation of animal breeding and plant production (landless livestock husbandry) • Organic fertilizer (mainly water) is expensive to transport

9. The International Regulatory framework Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions EU • Nitrates Directive (1991/676/EEC) (NO3) • Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) (water quality) • National Emission Ceilings Directive (2001/81/EC) (NOx, NH3) International • Kyoto Protocol (N2O)

10. Main national policy instrument (for farmers) Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions Düngeverordnung (DüV) (”Fertilization Directive”) Key elements (measured on plot level) • Max. 170 kg per ha organicNapplication (yearly) • Max. 60 kg per ha N balance surplus (3 year average) • Max. 20 kg per ha P balance surplus (6 year average) N-accounting (always after deducting ”unavoidable” losses) Other elements • Closed period for manure application • Min. storage capacity for manure • Standards on application technique Main difference to other EU-member states • Balance surpluses instead of max. total application limits

11. Our research questions Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions What is the effect of • Tighter limits, regarding • Organic N-application • N-balance • P-Balance • Or, accounting residuals from the biogas production On • The regulated amounts of • Manure • N in manure • P in manure • Transport distances and quantities of manure?

12. Data Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions Farm level micro data (various years) (FDZ) Synthetic data set on German agriculture at municipality level (various years) (Gocht & Röder, submitted) Distribution of Biogas production (2010) (BNetzA, 2011) Regional yields (various years) (DeStatis) Emission coefficients (various years) (DüV)

13. Methods Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions • Focus on organic fertilizer as • Lack of data for distribution of mineral fertilizer • Modelling ”partial” nutrient balances at • farm level • municipality level • Simple LP-transport model for manure(distributing local nutrient surpluses)min. total transport distances.t. compliance with the application and balance restrictions

14. Unavoidable losses (a gigantic loop hole) Without losses Deducting application losses Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions Organic N-excretion kg / ha UAA Legal Threshold

15. Importance of the legal limits Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions Share of the totally regulated quantity (N in manure)

16. Sensitivity to tighter limits (organic N application) Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions Additionally controlled share of manure Discussed shift Current legal limit

17. Sensitivity to tighter limits (P-Balance) Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions

18. Sensitivity to tighter limits (N-Balance) Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions (37 kg / ha UAA)

19. Transport of slurry (only intercommunal transport) Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions 1) In brackets share of biogas slurry on total

20. Conclusions Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions • High loads (N & P) primarily generated by large number of farms with small surplusses • Animal husbandry mainly limited by P-Balance while political debate focusses on N-application and N-Balance • To reduce N / P emissions it‘s more important to increase overall efficiency instead of focussing only on farms wtih very high manure input • „Unavoidable losses“ are an important trigger to (un)tighten restrictions

21. Conclusions Outline Motivation Research question Material & Methods Results Conclusions • Increasing N exports might imply only reallocation of surplus but not necessarily increased (physical) N efficiency • Manure surplus regions can export their manure within reasonable distances • Biogas • adds significant amounts of organic fertilizer • only slightly aggrevates the manure disposal problem in regions with high stocking densities

22. Zusammenfassung und Ausblick Gliederung Problemstellung Handlungsrahmen Gute fachliche Praxis vs. Cross Compliance Effektivität und Effizienz Optimierungs-möglichkeiten Zusammenfassung und Ausblick • Effektivität AUM gegeben • Erhaltung gegeben • Extensivierung fraglich • Effizienz AUM fraglich • Referenzsystem für die Prämienermittlung • Balance zwischen Zielgenauigkeit und Transaktionskosten • Prämiengestaltung bei stark schwankender Agrarpreise Thank you for your attention contact: Norbert Röder norbert.roeder@vti.bund.de