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Confused and Scared and Deeply in Denial

Confused and Scared and Deeply in Denial. Improving climate change communication and facilitating social change. Susanne C. Moser, Ph.D. & Lisa Dilling, Ph.D. ESIG Coffee Talk, February 24, 2004. The Not-so-lucky Clover Leaf of Communicating Urgency, Need for Change.

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Confused and Scared and Deeply in Denial

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  1. Confused and Scared and Deeply in Denial Improving climate change communication and facilitating social change Susanne C. Moser, Ph.D. & Lisa Dilling, Ph.D. ESIG Coffee Talk, February 24, 2004

  2. The Not-so-lucky Clover Leaf of Communicating Urgency, Need for Change Complexity & time lag in climate system What now? Societal structures and values resistant to change Climate change no longer just a science problem People perceive no urgency

  3. The Difficult Character of Climate Change • Global • Complex system (with lags and thresholds) • Defined and perceived as slow/gradual or as occurring in the far future • Difficult to detect • Causes pervasive >> solutions challenging (we have found the scapegoat and it is us) • Impacts dispersed; not all bad; many “creeping” phenomena • Cumulative, synergistic • Uncertainty pervasive • Politically very controversial

  4. Public Perceptions of Climate Change • ~90% of American public aware of “global warming” • For ~30% it is personally serious, urgent, worth worrying about • Still confusion about causes of global warming • Global warming is inevitable and unfixable • Related to irreversible deterioration of moral values • Few know about solutions; most are (believed to be) ineffective or irrelevant • Few if any studies have looked at adaptation; climate variability “The typical global warming news story overwhelms and immobilizes people.” (Frameworks Institute 2003)

  5. Societal Resistance to Change Some examples… • A power plant has a design life of 30+ years • A dam is built to last for decades to 100 years • Dominant economic paradigm and supporting social structures last decades to centuries • Values change at generational timescales “The conditions that brought us climate change, as well as the conditions surrounding future options for dealing with it, are embedded in socioeconomic structures and value systems, embracing material advancement and fossil fuels – structures and values that are highly resistant to change.” Trumbo and Shanahan, 2000

  6. Confused and Scared and Deeply in Denial OUTLINE • The communication – social change interface • Communication needs • Social change at all levels • A bottom-up framework for communication and social change • Challenges and outcomes of initial project

  7. Why the Communication – Social Change Interface? • What is not seen does not exist • Detection and naming of problem • Public agenda setting • What is not understood is dismissed, denied, or polemically discussed • Facilitation of informed public discourse about issue and solutions • How something is framed determines response • Influence on “issue culture” • What is not talked about exerts no political pressure • Link between public discourse and political stage • Without accessible solutions we will do nothing • Critical R&D, promotion >> Critical role for science/scientists (educator, supporter, ally/adversary, engineer)

  8. Anticipatory, planned, strategic action Actions taken by governments, public decision-makers, and business leaders Legislation, regulation, incentives Convincing causality, need for action recognized, need for probablistic climate information, for advance planning Autonomous, reactive, instantaneous action Actions taken by individuals, private decision-makers, agencies Behavioral changes, administrative actions Need for present-time weather or near-term climate information for response to extreme events, variability Climate Change Action & Communication Needs PREVENTION, MITIGATION (ADAPTATION) ADAPTATION (MITIGATION)

  9. The Need for Tailored and Effective Communication COMMUNICATING… • What? • How much? • In what format? • When? • How often? • To what end? And most of all… • To whom?

  10. Social Change: Where to begin? • Individuals? – all, specific ones • Businesses? • NGOs? • Government? • International • National • State • Local

  11. Belief model • Deficit model • Theory of reasoned action • Stages of change model • Consumer information • processing • Deliberative, inclusionary • processes & procedures • (e.g., social marketing) • Policy windows model • Regulatory approach • Advocacy coalition approach • Organizational change theories (e.g., stage theory) • Rational actor paradigm • Qualitative choice theory • Diffusion of innovation theory • Social learning theory • Altruism, empathy, pro-social behavior models • Community organization theories • (e.g., social network theory) Theories of Social Change: structure vs. agency – still… Individuals Small Informal Collectives Private Not-for-Profits Private Businesses Public Institutions > > > > > Society at large < < < < < • Theories of social (counter)movements (mobilization, opportunities, resources) • Diffusion of innovation theory

  12. Communication Behavior Change A Bottom-Up Framework: Communication-Behavior Change Continuum Unwieldy problem Audience Choice Mental Models Message Framing Messenger Choice Communication Channel Choice Message Reception Behavior Change Sought Identification of Barriers Program Design & Planning Behavior Change Tools Maintenance Termination

  13. Challenges for Project/Workshop • Walking Our Talk • Communicating across disciplinary boundaries • Communicating across professional boundaries • Raising awareness of climate impact and keeping it to a minimum • Theoretical Integration/Complementarity • Different disciplines • Levels of social change • Maintaining credibility for academics and relevance for practitioners • Balance of research and action agendas

  14. Expected Outcomes of MacArthur Project 1. Edited volume and synthesis paper 2. Research agenda • What aspects are we currently neglecting? • Which do we overstate? 3. Action agenda • What kinds of practical expertise would be most useful to draw on? • How do we hold the line between research and advocacy? 4. Proposal to NSF (HSD or Biocomplexity) • Explore communication/social change further in regional context (Northeast)

  15. And useful lessons for NCAR… “What is done with information is as important as the information itself.” H. Jesse Smith (2004) Workshop website: http://www.esig.ucar.edu/changeworkshop/index.html

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