Demographic Transition in Thailand

2. Demographic Transition in Thailand • Population as enumerated by the censuses. Population in Thailand increased 8 folds, from 8.3 m. in 1910 to 65.4 m. in 2010. * Cross border migrants were included.

3. Demographic Transition in Thailand Number (mill.) Rate (per 1,000) Population CBR CDR • The “population explosion” in Thailand occurred during 1950s, 1960s to 1970s. • CBR (>4%) – CDR (<1%)  Growth rate >3% per year.

4. Demographic Transition in Thailand Number (mill.) Rate (per 1,000) • Now, the “Thai population” is stabilizing at 64-65 million. • The population growth rate is 0.5% per year. • CBR (1.2%) – CDR (0.7%)  GR of 0.5% per year. • The reduction of growth rate, from >3% (40 years ago) to 0.5% (now) is due mainly to sharp decline in fertility during the past 3 decades. • CBR at 4% (40 years ago) to 1.2% (now). Population CBR CDR

5. Fertility Transition in Thailand Four periods of fertility transition in Thailand: High fertility : before 1970 Fertility decline : 1970–1990 Low fertility : 1991–1996 Below replacement fertility : 1997–present Note : SPC SOFT CPS = Survey of Population Change = Survey of Fertility in Thailand = Contraceptive Prevalence Survey LS NS CUPS = Longitudinal Survey = National Survey = Contraceptive Use Patterns in Thailand

6. Fertility Transition in Thailand Number of births (100,000) • Number of births per year has been declining. • From 1963-1983, “one million birth population cohort” • In 2010, 0.78 million births registered. • TFR a 2, at least 0.9 million births needed. • If TFR at 2020 = 1.2, number of births would be 0.6 million. “Replacement level” Note: Before 2009, numbers of births are from vital registration and TFRs are from Survey of Population Change. After 2009, numbers of births are from projection and TFRs are from logistic fitted.

7. Fertility Transition in Thailand Average number of children per woman (throughout her childbearing period) • Highland ethnic groups • Karen 2.2 • Hmong 4.8 • (Source: Gray, et al. 2004) • Whole kingdom 1.5 • Urban 1.0 • Rural 1.7 • (Source: SPC 2005 – 2006) Muslims in 3 most southern provinces 3.4 (Source: Est. from RH Survey 2003) • Region • Bangkok 0.9 • Central 1.2 • North 1.6 • Northeast 2.0 • South 1.5 • (Source: SPC 2005 – 2006) • Cross-border migrant women • Myanmar 3.6 • (Source: Pimonpan & Sukanya, 2004)

8. Number of years for TFR to decline from 5.5 to 2.2

9. Thailand: Population in broad age groups, 2000-2030 (thousand) Source: Author’s calculation; figures from United Nations Population Division, 2008

10. Trends in percentage of population aged 65+ Source: United Nations Population Division 2008, medium projection.

11. Thailand’s new demographic situation • Nearing end of population growth • Remarkable change in age pyramids • Declining child and young adult population • Ageing population • Demographic dividend ended • Migration patterns lowering av. education • Population decline in many rural areas • Growth of the medium cities

12. Population Pyramids of Thailand 1960-2030

13. Thailand: Index of Growth of Age Groups, 2000-2030

14. Population Ageing and Growth of the Older Population, Thailand 1970-2030

15. Impact of Fertility Decline • Decrease in number of students entering compulsory education, especially primary schools in rural villages. • Caused by • Declining number of births • Parents’ out-migration • Commuting to urban schools because of better roads and transportation

16. Population-responsive policies • How to best utilize and care for growing elderly population? • How to raise human capital of a shrinking workforce? • How to prepare health care workforce to adapt to changing care needs? • How to best utilize foreign workers? • How to plan for growing cities and rural population decline?

17. Living arrangements of persons age 60 and above, Thailand 1986-2007

18. Percentage of households having members attending post-secondary education, by indicator of economic status

19. Influencing population trends • Over three decades, Thailand focused on lowering fertility rates • Total fertility rate has fallen to 1.5, far below replacement level • Longer-term implications of fertility maintained at this level or below are negative: • Population ageing • Contraction of workforce • Negative population momentum – population decline

20. Policy Consideration • More emphasis should be on quality than on quantity of births. • Thailand should have both pro- and anti-natalist policy : • Pro-natalist : among adults, intended couples. • Anti-natalist : among adolescents. Source: Calculated from registered births reported in Public Health Statistics, not adjusted for under registration.

21. Policy Consideration Incentives for pro-natalist : • Tax reduction for unlimited number of children. • Revise the regulation on the limited 3 children to receive financial and welfare assistance from the government. • Any incentive measure must not lead to discrimination of labour employment and promotion.

22. Learning from Asian neighbours • Other low-fertility Asian countries are seriously concerned • Too slow in introducing pro-natalist policies • Thailand should now introduce a set of measures to facilitate raising of children: • Paid maternity (and paternity) leave • Flexible working hours • Eldercare support • Subsidized childcare • Tax incentives and/or baby bonus schemes • Can such measures work?