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Demographic Transition Model

Demographic Transition Model. Stage 1: Low Growth (High Stationary Stage). High CBR (Crude Birth Rate) and CDR (Crude Death Rate) , leading to low RNI (Rate of Natural Increase) Fluctuation in CDR because of disease, famine, and war

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Demographic Transition Model

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  1. Demographic Transition Model

  2. Stage 1: Low Growth (High Stationary Stage) • High CBR (Crude Birth Rate) and CDR (Crude Death Rate) , leading to low RNI (Rate of Natural Increase) • Fluctuation in CDR because of disease, famine, and war • Usually characterizes a subsistence farming country without an industrialized economy

  3. Stage 2: High Growth (Early Expanding Stage) • High CBR: children are still needed on farms • Declining CDR: better health care • Industrialization has begun but families have not realized the changes in society (birth rates do not fall) • The RNI increases; population expansion is at a high rate

  4. Stage 3: Moderate Growth (Late Expanding Stage) • Declining CBR: as families move to cities, they have fewer children. • Women realize they have more options in industrialized economy • RNI is decreasing but still greater than 0

  5. Stage 4: Low Growth (Low Stationary Stage) • CBR & CDR reach equilibrium at low levels rather than the high levels of stage 1 • RNI is low • Seen in modern post-industrial countries with zero population growth

  6. Stage 5 (Slow Decline) • Continuing decline of CBR (France, Germany) • Graying-population patterns of wealthier countries

  7. Criticisms of the Model • Based on the European experience • Not all countries will pass through the same demographic transition at the same rate

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